美国核心PCE年率小幅走高录得3.4%，符合市场预期
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Core PCE inflation rate may be revised down by 0.2 percentage points; the US BEA will adjust some of its PCE calculation methods.
According to Odaily Odaily, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced adjustments to some calculation methods in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. These changes are expected to be reflected in the data revision released on September 30, 2026. Market estimates generally indicate that this adjustment will lower the core PCE inflation rate by approximately 0.2 percentage points. Current data shows that core PCE inflation was 3.4% over the past 12 months ending in May 2026, consistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target since March 2021. The BEA's adjustments primarily target three sub-sectors: portfolio management and investment advisory services, computer software and accessories, and legal services. Former Federal Reserve Governor Miran stated in a speech last December that "what should have been recorded as an increase in the quantity of service consumption was instead recorded as a price increase." Miran, along with Federal Reserve economists Alessandro Barbarino and Anthony M. Diercks, published a paper in May analyzing the shortcomings of existing statistical methods, including measurement issues related to portable storage devices and video games. JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart stated that "Grand Theft Auto 6 might also have the opportunity to influence the U.S. Treasury yield curve."
Economists: US core PCE will not fall easily.
Odaily Odaily reports that after the PCE rose 4.1% year-on-year in May, some economists predicted this could be the peak of price increases. However, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas stated that the core inflation rate increase of 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase of 3.4%, may be sustainable. Given the significant transmission pressure within the PPI index over the past few months, these prices, unlike the overall data, will not fall back so easily. (Jinshi)
The US core PCE annual rate rose slightly to 3.4%, in line with market expectations.
According to Odaily Odaily, the US core PCE price index rose 3.4% year-on-year in May, in line with market expectations and reaching a new high since October 2023. (Jinshi)
Panic in Bitcoin derivatives intensifies; core PCE could become a key catalyst for market movements.
According to Odaily Odaily, risk appetite in the current Bitcoin derivatives market has weakened significantly, with investors paying high premiums to hedge against downside risks, and overall market sentiment approaching panic levels. Analysts point out that the core catalyst for a short-term market recovery will be the release of the US May core PCE price index at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Market consensus predicts that the core PCE will rise 3.4% year-on-year in May, a slight increase from 3.3% in April, reaching a new high since the end of 2023. As a key inflation indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve, if the actual data falls short of market expectations, it will reinforce the market's judgment that inflation is continuing to cool, weaken the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, and improve liquidity expectations, potentially quickly restoring sentiment towards risk assets such as Bitcoin and triggering a sentiment-driven rebound. (Coindesk)
Opinion: Stronger-than-expected US PCE figures could reverse the optimism surrounding Micron's earnings.
Odaily Odaily reports that Swissquote Bank senior market analyst Ipek Ozkadeskaja stated, "Stronger-than-expected PCE data could further encourage the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance and reverse the market optimism that emerged after Micron Technology's earnings report." Ozkadeskaja added that this could reignite the unsettling topic of rising borrowing costs as tech giants continue to increase debt to realize their artificial intelligence ambitions. (Jinshi)
Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos: April core PCE rose modestly month-over-month, but the annualized rate still reached 2.9%.
According to Odaily Odaily, Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," stated that core PCE prices rose 0.24% in April. While this is the most modest month-over-month increase in the index over the past five months, it still represents an annualized rate of 2.9%. The 3-month and 6-month annualized core PCE inflation rates are 3.8%, while the 12-month change is 3.3%. (Jinshi)