A stronger dollar caused aluminum prices to fall to their lowest level since February, with a cumulative drop of 16% in June.
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Data: Recently listed crypto companies have seen their average stock price fall by 73% from its peak, with Gemini dropping over 90%.
According to a report by 10x Research, recently listed crypto-related companies have seen their share prices plummet from their post-IPO highs. Gemini (GEMI) has fallen 91%, Amber (AMBR) 89%, BitGo (BTGO) 79%, Circle (CRCL) 78%, Coinbase (COIN) 63%, and Securitize (SECZ) 41%. Data shows that these eight recently listed crypto companies are down an average of 73% from their post-IPO highs. The report points out that post-IPO price crashes have become a common phenomenon for crypto IPOs, and investors need to adopt more systematic strategies to cope with such volatility.
As oil prices fell, US Treasury yields fluctuated and the dollar strengthened.
According to Odaily data, the US dollar index is currently up 0.2%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.459%, higher than the closing price of 4.447% last Thursday. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.130% to 4.108%. As US markets reopened after the holidays, a Middle East peace agreement remained elusive, and last week's labor market data disappointed, US Treasury yields fluctuated, while the dollar rose slightly. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to increase production, causing oil prices to fall. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, making this week relatively quiet in terms of data.
Societe Generale: The US dollar is expected to rise to 103.6 by the end of the year, while the euro will fall to 1.11 against the dollar.
According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, analysts at Societe Generale stated in a report that the strength of the US dollar is expected to continue into the second half of 2026. The US is the only G10 economy whose average growth forecast this year is higher than initially expected at the beginning of the year. The bank predicts that the dollar index will rise to 103.6 by the end of the year, and the euro will fall to 1.11 against the dollar.
Analysis: Bitcoin's 365-day Sharpe ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, historically corresponding to multiple bear market bottoms.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, data from CryptoQuant showed that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 28% year-to-date, with its 365-day rolling Sharpe Ratio briefly dropping to around -21, its lowest level since the end of 2022, and currently remaining close to -20. The Sharpe Ratio measures an asset's risk-adjusted return. A negative value means investors are taking on higher volatility risk, but the actual return is lower than that of risk-free assets (such as 10-year US Treasury bonds). Given the current US Treasury yield of approximately 4.45%, this indicator reflects a significant deterioration in Bitcoin's risk-return performance over the past year. However, CryptoQuant points out that historically, a Sharpe Ratio falling to such an extreme negative value often indicates that market selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. Similar levels have appeared near the bottoms of the bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, subsequently accompanied by the start of a new upward cycle for Bitcoin.
Citigroup: Oil prices could fall to $60 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz crisis subsides.
According to Odaily Odaily, Citigroup stated that Brent crude oil prices could fall to $60 per barrel by the end of the year as the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz gradually eases, further exacerbating pessimistic expectations for the global oil market. Citigroup analyst Francesco Martoccia noted in a report: "With the receding crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, fundamentals are rapidly recovering. Shipping traffic is returning to normal, the spot crude oil market is weakening significantly, and inventory declines are far less than expected." Analysts say the initial phase "is expected to be volatile, as shipping routes need to return to normal, the insurance market needs to adjust, and remaining logistical bottlenecks need to be gradually eliminated." They also point out that "the resumption of orderly navigation patterns and the increase in traffic volume indicate that commercial operators increasingly believe the risk environment is manageable, rather than unbearable." (Jinshi)
Nvidia's market value evaporated by $1 trillion in less than two months, with its valuation falling back to levels seen before the AI boom.
According to Mars Finance, after losing approximately $1 trillion in market capitalization in less than two months, Nvidia stock has hit its lowest level since the artificial intelligence (AI) boom fueled its surge. The chipmaker's graphics processing units (GPUs) still dominate the AI data center market. However, its share price has fallen 16% since hitting an all-time high on May 14th, prompting investors to adjust their AI trading strategies, selling Nvidia and investing in other semiconductor manufacturers, particularly those in the memory market. Data shows the sell-off has driven Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) to 18 based on its expected earnings over the next 12 months. The last time it reached such a low level was in early 2019. To better understand the depth of the decline, a comparison with benchmark stock indices shows that the S&P 500 has a forward P/E ratio of 20, and the Nasdaq 100 has a forward P/E ratio close to 23. (Cailian Press)