Southern investors who long their bets on Samsung Electronics (07747.HK) saw their shares plunge over 25% in the afternoon.
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Morningstar: Samsung Electronics' revenue forecast may disappoint investors.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Morningstar analyst Jing Jie Yu stated that investors may have been slightly disappointed with Samsung Electronics' revenue forecast. He pointed out that Samsung Electronics' projected operating profit met market expectations, but its revenue forecast of 171 trillion won was slightly below the average expectation. This weaker-than-expected performance may be due to a lower-than-expected increase in DRAM prices. This could have spooked investors who increasingly anticipated a structural strengthening of memory chip prices. As investors became more cautious, Samsung Electronics' stock closed down 6.9%, narrowing its year-to-date gains to slightly below 150%.
On the day the lock-up period for Zhipu's cornerstone investors expired, nearly 70% of them expressed their intention to hold the shares long-term.
According to a report by the Securities Times on July 7th, as the lock-up period for cornerstone investors in Hong Kong-listed Zhipu approaches, several institutional investors have expressed their long-term optimism and commitment to continue holding the shares. JSC International Investment Fund SPC stated that based on its long-term positive outlook on the company's future development, it is willing to continue holding its shares. According to public information, the core state-owned investors behind its managed funds include the Beijing Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund, Beijing Jingneng Green Energy M&A Investment Fund, Beijing Information Industry Development Investment Fund, and Beijing Zhongguancun Science City Phase III Technology Growth Equity Investment Partnership. Professional market-oriented investment institutions WT Asset Management and Optimas Capital Limited, as well as Zhipu's early shareholder and cornerstone investor Lingyun Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd., have also successively stated that they will continue to hold the company's shares, and will proceed in an orderly manner should any future reduction plans arise. The institutions that have simultaneously expressed their support hold nearly 70% of the cornerstone shares to be released from lock-up, encompassing national-level strategic capital, local government industrial guidance funds, large state-owned enterprise industrial funds, and market-oriented professional investment institutions.
Samsung Electronics' operating profit this year is expected to exceed the cumulative total of the past 40 years, and the second quarter may set a new record for the highest operating profit in the history of global technology companies.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Kim Yong-kwan, head of the semiconductor business's operational strategy at Samsung Electronics, released optimistic signals at a departmental meeting on July 3rd, stating that this year's operating profit will meet market expectations, and adding that "the cumulative profit over the past 40 years of the semiconductor business is less than this year's profit alone." The market currently expects Samsung Electronics' full-year operating profit for 2026 to be approximately 300 trillion won, with a consensus expectation of 84.6 trillion won for the second quarter—if realized, this would surpass Nvidia's record of $53.536 billion in the first quarter of this year, setting a new record for the highest single-quarter operating profit for a global technology company. Kim Yong-kwan also emphasized that the company continues to invest over 40 trillion won in capital expenditure annually and plans to further expand its investment scale to cope with the continued expansion of demand for AI semiconductors. The combined performance of South Korea's two semiconductor giants is equally remarkable. SK Hynix's second-quarter operating profit is expected to be around 64.4 trillion won, bringing the combined total for both companies to approximately 149 trillion won, approaching 150 trillion won. However, some market analysts point out that the storage sector's stock prices have recently shown signs of peaking and declining. Whether they can rise further depends on whether the earnings significantly exceed expectations. The size and duration of long-term supply contracts and the price trend of storage in the second half of the year will be key variables to watch. Furthermore, SK Hynix's ADRs will be listed on July 10th. HSBC has raised its target price from 2.9 million won to 4 million won, believing that the ADR listing will improve accessibility for global investors and could bring a valuation premium of approximately 20%. JPMorgan Chase points out that the second-quarter earnings season will be a watershed moment for reassessing the storage cycle.
South Korea's IPO market cools as investors flock to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
According to Odaily, South Korea's IPO market cooled rapidly after a strong first half of the year, with newly listed companies experiencing sharp declines in share prices due to increased market uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment. Data from the Korea Exchange on Sunday showed that 14 of the 18 companies that went public this year are currently trading below their IPO price, with star IPOs in the technology and fashion sectors leading the decline. Market analysts believe this stems from inflated IPO pricing and a rapid exodus of short-term speculative funds after listing. Although regulators have recently strengthened lock-up requirements for institutional investors, macroeconomic shocks and supply-demand imbalances have made newly listed small and mid-cap stocks particularly vulnerable. Observers point out that domestic liquidity remains highly concentrated in large-cap artificial intelligence and semiconductor supply chain stocks, with funds struggling to flow to newer, less mature listed companies. South Korea's financial industry is currently hoping for a wave of large and highly valued companies to list in the second half of the year to drive market recovery, while new guidelines for dual listings have also been released. (Jinshi)
The protagonist of ByteDance's stock trading spree, who made 30 million yuan, discusses the storage market: the market is entering a chain of liquidations, and deleveraging is healthier in the long run.
According to Mars Finance, on July 4th, Leto Bao, the protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million yuan" story, posted an article discussing the storage market. Why has storage stocks recently plummeted? He attributed it to aggressive institutional withdrawals, coupled with forced liquidations of leveraged funds, leading to a downward spiral of liquidation. He believes that appropriately reducing leveraged funds is healthier in the long run. Leto Bao also stated that investors must have their own convictions. He cited a colleague in a ByteDance investment group with millions of dollars in assets who was bullish on storage at the beginning of the year but lacked conviction. He then personally visited Micron's factory in Singapore to solidify his belief and subsequently bought shares decisively. He emphasized that relying on others' recommendations is their conviction, not yours; you might not be able to hold on when prices rise or fall. Regarding how ordinary people should invest, Leto Bao believes there are several scenarios: Investors with elderly parents, young children, mortgages, and car loans who want to improve their lives through investment should absolutely not invest; their priority should be reducing leverage. Investors with no financial burdens but little savings should first improve their earning capacity. Investors with some savings (based on the PDT threshold of $25,000) but no prior investment experience or no interest in investing and only interested in making money should directly buy index funds and absolutely avoid individual stocks. The ideal investor is someone with some savings, a passion for investing, the ability to learn, whose primary goal is not to make money but to treat investing as a strategic game, enjoying the fun of trading, improving their understanding through information sources to accelerate earnings, having goals, and receiving real-world feedback. In this case, investing is more interesting than any strategic game.
One hour before Trump's statement, a short position of 21 million (long oil, short Nasdaq) saw significant profits after investors added to their short positions.
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, Hyperinsight monitoring showed that an address starting with 0xec4 had already established a long position in Brent crude oil with 20x leverage two days prior. Then, approximately one hour before Trump's Middle East statements triggered a market surge, a short position in the Nasdaq 100 was significantly increased with 30x leverage. Subsequently, oil prices jumped, and risk assets came under pressure, leading to profit-taking on both sides. As of press time, the two highly leveraged positions at this address had a combined unrealized profit of approximately $510,000. The return on the Brent crude oil long position reached 189%, and the return on the Nasdaq 100 short position reached 37%. The entry times were as follows: July 6th afternoon: Brent crude oil long position established with 20x leverage; July 7th evening: Nasdaq 100 mapped contract (XYZ100) opened with a base position of approximately 200 contracts with 30x leverage; This afternoon (approximately 1 hour before the statement): Significantly increased short positions, pushing the XYZ100 short position to 600 contracts, valued at approximately $17.304 million, completing the setup just before the news was released. On the news front, Trump's latest statement indicated that the temporary ceasefire arrangements between the US and Iran may have ended, and the market re-priced in Middle East geopolitical risk premiums. Reports indicate that crude oil futures jumped approximately 5% after the statement. Current core positions: Brent crude oil (BRENTOIL) long positions: 50,000 contracts, approximately $3.915 million, average price $71.8645, liquidation price $37.26, unrealized profit approximately $322,000; Nasdaq 100 mapped contract (XYZ100) short positions: 600 contracts, approximately $17.304 million, average price $29,108.44, liquidation price $32,119.96, unrealized profit approximately $161,000.