Private members of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy in Japan: The Bank of Japan should continue raising interest rates at a moderate pace.
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Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary stated that Japan will not implement fiscal policies that could damage market confidence and will continue to work closely with the Bank of Japan.
According to Mars Finance, on July 3, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated that the Japanese government will not implement fiscal policies that would damage market confidence and will continue to cooperate closely with the Bank of Japan. He also emphasized that monetary policy falls under the Bank of Japan's authority, and interest rate trends should be determined by the market. (Jinshi)
Bank of Japan policymakers support a gradual approach to interest rate hikes, with further adjustments possible this year and next summer.
According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, a Bank of Japan policy official stated that they support a "gradual" approach to interest rate hikes to support the yen and avoid impacting domestic investment. The Bank of Japan may continue raising interest rates this year and into next summer, but may then enter a pause for observation to balance inflationary pressures and economic stability. Currently, the overall stance leans towards "gradual tightening," but no aggressive signals of rate hikes have been released.
Nomura: Japanese Prime Minister's economic blueprint may influence the timing of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.
According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi stated that if Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi uses her "basic policy" economic blueprint (expected to be approved by the cabinet this month) to prevent further interest rate hikes, it could delay the timing of the Bank of Japan's next move. He said, "Even if the government opposes it, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates when it deems it necessary, but it may respect the government's wishes regarding the timing of the rate hike to some extent." He added, "Government pressure against the Bank of Japan's rate hikes could further weaken the yen and lead to lower bond prices, which would undermine the stability of the country's economy and financial markets." (Jinshi)
The US dollar fell briefly against the Japanese yen, touching 161.13.
According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, the USD/JPY exchange rate briefly fell by over 100 points, hitting a low of 161.13, before rebounding and currently trading at 161.7. Previously, Toshihiro Nagahama, a private member of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, stated that the Bank of Japan should continue raising interest rates at a moderate pace, as this is crucial to correcting the excessive depreciation of the yen. He believes the Bank of Japan should raise rates every six months, a pace that would not harm domestic investment. He predicts the Bank of Japan will raise rates at the end of this year, then again next summer, after which it will pause rate hikes. He added, "I personally think a June rate hike is appropriate because delaying rate hikes would lead to excessive yen depreciation, harming households."
The People's Bank of China: We will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments.
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its second quarterly meeting of 2026. The meeting analyzed the domestic and international economic and financial situation, concluding that the current external environment is more complex and volatile, with weak global economic growth momentum, frequent geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, divergent economic performance among major economies, and uncertainties surrounding inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments. While my country's economy is generally stable and moving towards new and improved directions, achieving new results in high-quality development, it still faces problems and challenges such as strong supply and weak demand, structural differentiation, and external shocks. The meeting stressed the need to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both aggregate and structural aspects, strengthen the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices.
Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.