Non-farm payrolls data fell short of expectations, prompting markets to bet on a rate hike being delayed until the end of the year.
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The protagonist of ByteDance's stock trading success story: CPI, non-farm payroll data, etc., are not just market noise; he previously suffered a significant drawdown in his Nvidia investment due to ignoring the interest rate hike environment.
According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, Leto Bao, the protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million yuan" story, reviewed his journey to a 30 million yuan fortune in the US stock market on Binance Square. He stated that CPI, non-farm payrolls, and Federal Reserve policies are all macroeconomic factors, while earnings season reflects the performance of specific companies or industries, and also reflects changes in the macroeconomy. Leto Bao stated that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is one of the key indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve. A high CPI usually indicates greater inflationary pressure; a low CPI may reflect deflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve's long-term goal is to maintain inflation at around 2%, which represents a moderate inflationary environment, meaning a slow depreciation of the currency, while investment, consumption, and credit activities are relatively healthy. Non-farm payroll data also influences market judgment. There is a certain correlation between overheated employment and inflation, but the relationship between macroeconomic indicators is complex and not a simple linear deduction. The Federal Reserve is responsible for formulating economic policies related to interest rates and serving the US economy through policy adjustments. Leto Bao believes that CPI, non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve policies, and earnings season should not be simply dismissed as "noise," but all have some reference value. He mentioned that when he previously invested in Nvidia, he ignored the broader interest rate environment, leading to a significant drawdown in his account. Therefore, macroeconomic factors still need to be incorporated into investment decisions. Leto Bao is a former employee of ByteDance, known as the "ByteDance Stock Investor." He reportedly made substantial profits (around 30 million RMB) by investing in the AI storage sector in the US stock market and subsequently resigned. The story began when he noticed an abnormal price increase when buying hard drives on Pinduoduo, which prompted him to research data storage needs and heavily invest in related stocks.
Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by about $1 in the short term, while spot gold rose by about $20 in the short term.
According to Odaily data, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by about $1 in the short term, while spot gold rose by about $20. In terms of news, Trump did not reiterate his intention to terminate the interim agreement with Iran during the NATO summit.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment was supported by a decline in inflation expectations, with the market focusing on the July CPI data.
According to Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market continued its stabilizing trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This surge was primarily driven by declining inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has recently declined significantly, with the two-year indicator falling below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, and long-term inflation expectations also weakening. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, dropping to levels similar to those before the geopolitical conflict in February, prompting the market to reassess inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory. Some analysts believe that a weaker dollar index (DXY) will further reduce resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as the two typically have a negative correlation. However, others caution that service sector inflation remains sticky, and declining oil prices do not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall inflation trend; monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher and longer" stance. The next key market juncture is the US June CPI data on July 14th, which could be a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets.
Surprise nonfarm payrolls print sends Bitcoin back below 80K
The US economy added far more jobs than expected in August, pressuring Bitcoin lower as traders repriced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
Data: Whales on the Hyperliquid platform currently hold $5.106 billion in positions, with a long/short ratio of 0.95.
According to Coinglass data, whales on the Hyperliquid platform currently hold $5.106 billion in positions, with long positions totaling $2.49 billion (48.76%) and short positions totaling $2.617 billion (51.24%). Long positions have a profit/loss of $55.9722 million, while short positions have a profit/loss of $45.3312 million. Specifically, the whale address 0x082e..88 long cross margin-in on HYPE at a price of $38.6755, and currently has an unrealized profit/loss of $40.5076 million.
Analysis: The AI investment boom is cooling down, and the market is reassessing the sustainability of chip and data center spending.
According to Odaily Odaily, the AI infrastructure investment boom is cooling down, and the market is beginning to reassess the sustainability of chip and data center spending. As investors re-examine whether AI infrastructure investment can be sustained, "AI deals" covering the semiconductor, memory chip, and data center industry chain are showing signs of cooling. Recently, AI-related chip stocks such as Micron Technology (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) have been under pressure. Samsung Electronics previously reported record second-quarter results, but revenue fell short of market expectations, causing its stock price to drop nearly 7%, dragging down the entire AI chip sector. Market concerns are growing that the current AI boom, driven by GPUs, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and data center construction, may face repricing as cloud computing giants (Hyperscalers) may slow their investments in AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix's stock price has fallen about 25% from its all-time high ahead of its US IPO, which is also attracting some funds away from existing chip stocks. Analysts point out that after SpaceX's massive IPO boosted valuations of AI-related assets, investors are reassessing the growth logic for the next phase of the AI market. If the AI investment fervor cools further, some funds may flow back from the AI industry chain to other risky assets, including crypto assets. (CoinDesk)