Industry insiders: Computing power rental prices continued to rise this month; demand for training cards and inference cards may diverge.
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CITIC Securities: Significant fluctuations will not alter the AI supercycle; emphasize the importance of domestic computing power as a "Plan B".
According to Mars Finance, CITIC Securities points out that news of Meta's plan to lease out some of its computing power has once again triggered market concerns about computing power oversupply. This, coupled with concerns about cloud vendors' cash flow pressures, the continued rise in upstream prices, the slowdown in Capex growth, and overcrowding in AI transactions in recent months, is the main reason for the significant volatility in tech stocks. In the short term, Meta's move is primarily aimed at revitalizing its existing, outdated computing power assets. Considering its continued development of advanced models and investment in next-generation computing hardware, leasing out computing power is not contradictory to further increasing its investment in computing power. Furthermore, since computing power rental fees have continued to rise recently, concerns about computing power oversupply are unfounded. This round of tech stock adjustments is more of a deleveraging and rebalancing process in the recent global liquidity tightening environment, rather than a reversal of the AI industry trend. For the medium to long term, it is crucial to pay close attention to whether the next few months will see a similar breakthrough in AI capabilities as seen with OpenClaw and Coding Agent at the beginning of the year. In addition, it has been observed that after overseas AI assets entered a phase of high crowding, high correlation, and high volatility, international funds are beginning to seek differentiated sources of return. Domestic computing power with differentiated value, dubbed "Plan B," remains resilient and is expected to attract foreign investment. With the earnings season approaching, we recommend focusing on sub-sectors with high earnings certainty and reasonable valuations: In terms of growth prospects, we recommend domestic FAB (Featured Adhesives and Materials) and equipment sectors with positive narratives, as well as the optical communication sector with relatively low valuations; in the price increase chain, segments with high AI exposure and those that have already experienced price increases have a higher probability of realizing their earnings gains, such as memory and upstream PCB industries. (Cailian Press)
The concept of computing power leasing continues to rise, with multiple stocks, including YunSai Zhilian, hitting the daily limit.
According to Mars Finance, the computing power leasing concept continues to rise, with YunSai Intelligent Link and DataPort hitting the daily limit. Previously, Wangsu Science & Technology, Hengwei Technology, Nanxing Shares, and 263 had also hit the daily limit, while Sangfor Technologies and Feilixin both rose by more than 14%. (Cailian Press)
The National Development and Reform Commission disclosed five key work plans for the artificial intelligence industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the strengthening of key technologies such as models, computing power, and data.
According to Mars Finance, at a press conference held by the Shanghai Municipal Government on July 7, Wang Ruomeng, Deputy Director of the Innovation and High-Tech Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, disclosed the working plan for my country's artificial intelligence industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period: First, accelerate independent innovation. Strengthen research on key technologies such as models, computing power, and data; increase basic research; generate more original achievements; and contribute Chinese wisdom to the global development of artificial intelligence. Second, strengthen application-driven development. Focus on areas with significant economic contributions, high strategic value, and good social benefits; open up a number of high-value scenarios; and create a number of benchmark applications. At the same time, pay attention to the impact of artificial intelligence on employment, promote the creation of new jobs and empowerment of traditional jobs through artificial intelligence, and prioritize its application in "dangerous, dirty, tiring, and heavy" scenarios. Third, deepen ecological collaboration. Continuously promote deep adaptation of software and hardware, common prosperity of open and closed sources, integration of industry, academia, research, and application, and differentiated regional development to significantly improve the efficiency of ecological collaboration. Fourth, adhere to openness and win-win cooperation. Extensively carry out international cooperation in artificial intelligence, promote open-source and inclusive technology, support the Global South in strengthening artificial intelligence capacity building, and actively participate in international governance in the field of artificial intelligence. Fifth, ensure safety and controllability. We must coordinate development and security, accelerate legislation in the field of artificial intelligence, improve the system of rules and regulations, prevent risks such as data misuse, deepfakes, and privacy breaches, and ensure that the development of artificial intelligence is for human use and under human control. (Cailian Press)
Shares of US-listed computing power rental service providers rose in pre-market trading, with Oracle and CoreWeave gaining nearly 3%.
Mars Finance reported on July 6th that US-listed computing power rental service providers rose in pre-market trading, with Oracle and CoreWeave up nearly 3%, Nebius up nearly 4%, and Google and Microsoft following suit. (KeGuBao Broadcast)
Tether CEO warns AI giants' computing power subsidy model: Multiple cycles of mismatch continue to accumulate industry risks.
On July 4th, PANews reported that Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino published an article on the X platform, questioning the current expansion model of AI giants subsidizing computing power in exchange for user scale. He stated that leading global AI technology companies are continuously increasing their investment in computing infrastructure to seize market share, resulting in huge capital expenditures. However, the economic depreciation cycle of computing assets such as GPUs and servers is only 3 to 5 years, and the hardware depreciates extremely quickly. This creates structural mismatch risks: token prices are decoupled from the real value of assets, the profit realization cycle lags behind the capital investment cycle, and the cost of capital does not match the debt repayment period. At the same time, open-source AI models continue to divert market demand and compress commercial revenue space.
US computing power rental providers Nebius and CoreWeave turned positive in pre-market trading, shaking off the shadow of Meta's plan to build its own cloud business.
According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, based on BIT (bit.com) market data, the pre-market share prices of US computing power leasing companies Nebius and CoreWeave turned positive, rising 3% and 2% respectively, after closing down 17% and 14% respectively yesterday. Yesterday's news that "Meta plans to build its own cloud business and sell surplus AI computing power" triggered a market-wide decline in computing power leasing companies.