Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices by 20% in the third quarter and has already notified some customers verbally.
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Bernstein: SK Hynix's DRAM gross margin is expected to reach 92% in the third quarter.
According to Odaily Odaily, investment research firm Bernstein estimates that SK Hynix's DRAM gross margin is expected to reach 90.9% in the second quarter of this year and 92% in the third quarter. This growth is mainly driven by high demand for HBM; SK Hynix holds approximately 60% market share in the HBM market and is a major supplier to Nvidia. Industry insiders say that in the history of global manufacturing and technology, apart from software and platform-based asset-light companies, very few physical hardware manufacturing businesses have been able to achieve a gross margin exceeding 90%.
Samsung Electronics' operating profit this year is expected to exceed the cumulative total of the past 40 years, and the second quarter may set a new record for the highest operating profit in the history of global technology companies.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Kim Yong-kwan, head of the semiconductor business's operational strategy at Samsung Electronics, released optimistic signals at a departmental meeting on July 3rd, stating that this year's operating profit will meet market expectations, and adding that "the cumulative profit over the past 40 years of the semiconductor business is less than this year's profit alone." The market currently expects Samsung Electronics' full-year operating profit for 2026 to be approximately 300 trillion won, with a consensus expectation of 84.6 trillion won for the second quarter—if realized, this would surpass Nvidia's record of $53.536 billion in the first quarter of this year, setting a new record for the highest single-quarter operating profit for a global technology company. Kim Yong-kwan also emphasized that the company continues to invest over 40 trillion won in capital expenditure annually and plans to further expand its investment scale to cope with the continued expansion of demand for AI semiconductors. The combined performance of South Korea's two semiconductor giants is equally remarkable. SK Hynix's second-quarter operating profit is expected to be around 64.4 trillion won, bringing the combined total for both companies to approximately 149 trillion won, approaching 150 trillion won. However, some market analysts point out that the storage sector's stock prices have recently shown signs of peaking and declining. Whether they can rise further depends on whether the earnings significantly exceed expectations. The size and duration of long-term supply contracts and the price trend of storage in the second half of the year will be key variables to watch. Furthermore, SK Hynix's ADRs will be listed on July 10th. HSBC has raised its target price from 2.9 million won to 4 million won, believing that the ADR listing will improve accessibility for global investors and could bring a valuation premium of approximately 20%. JPMorgan Chase points out that the second-quarter earnings season will be a watershed moment for reassessing the storage cycle.
Hong Kong-listed technology stocks weakened after the market opened, influenced by market news regarding Samsung Electronics.
According to Odaily Odaily, some Hong Kong-listed technology stocks weakened after the market opened, possibly influenced by market news that Samsung Electronics plans to raise DRAM product prices by about 20% in the third quarter. Sunny Optical Technology fell by more than 4%, and Lenovo Group fell by 3.4%.
Rebellions, a South Korean AI chip startup backed by Samsung Electronics, plans to IPO in South Korea next year.
According to reports, Sunghyun Park, CEO of Rebellions, a South Korean AI chip startup backed by Samsung Electronics, stated that the company plans to IPO in South Korea in the first or second quarter of next year. Park said that Rebellions has already begun generating actual revenue, "and for this reason, we are working with the underwriting teams at JPMorgan Chase and Samsung Securities to prepare for the IPO." (Jiemian)
UBS raised its target price for SK Hynix to 3.2 million won and maintained its buy rating.
According to a report by Odaily, SK Hynix is continuing to push for more revised long-term agreements, focusing on DDR5 and NAND Flash for hyperscale data center customers. These contracts have terms exceeding five years, with approximately 60% to 70% of the expected volume and price already locked in, which will improve future earnings visibility. Based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 3.65 for the next 12 months, UBS has raised its target price for SK Hynix from 3 million won to 3.2 million won and maintained its buy rating. SK Hynix began ramping up HBM4 shipments for its Rubin platform in the second quarter, indicating that it has completed final design adjustments to meet specifications. While Samsung Electronics' HBM bit market share may be slightly higher than SK Hynix's in 2027 (41% vs. 39%), in the long term, HBM's share in SK Hynix's DRAM business is expected to be higher than its peers. UBS predicts that HBM's share of DRAM revenue will rise from 15% in 2026 to 58% in 2030. Further increases in the average selling price of HBM will provide additional support for profitability in 2027. UBS stated that shareholder reward policies are expected to continue to strengthen, and anticipates share buybacks to begin after the ADR listing and gradually accelerate. UBS points out that DDR and NAND Flash contract pricing still has room for further increases in the second half of 2026. Considering the revised long-term agreements and HBM, UBS forecasts a 43% quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM average selling prices in Q2 2026, a 21% increase in Q3, and a 13% increase in Q4; for NAND, it expects a 43% quarter-on-quarter increase in the mixed average selling price in Q2, a 25% increase in Q3, and a 10% increase in Q4. Taking into account the upward revision of average selling price forecasts, UBS has raised its SK Hynix operating profit forecast by 7% to 327 trillion won this year, and by 12% each for the next two years to 623 trillion won and 667 trillion won.
Analysts: Samsung's better-than-expected earnings report is already priced in; investors are concerned about the sustainability of AI.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, Samsung Electronics issued a better-than-expected earnings forecast: the company's operating profit increased by over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profits exceeding the total of the previous three years. Simultaneously, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won. However, investors seemed unconvinced, and Samsung Electronics' stock price fell sharply after the South Korean stock market opened, with a maximum drop of 8%. Analysts attributed Samsung's weak stock price to some overly high market expectations: after including employee bonus provisions, profits driven by record memory chip prices could have exceeded 90 trillion won. Furthermore, the market is also concerned about a potential slowdown in the construction of AI data centers. Albert Yong, Managing Partner of Petra Capital Management, stated, "Samsung's strong performance had already been widely anticipated by the market and largely priced in during the pre-earnings stock price increase. Investors remain concerned about the sustainability of the AI boom and the risk of a potential slowdown in AI infrastructure spending by major US technology companies."