The recovery in semiconductor demand is spreading from AI to a wider range of industrial end markets, and supply chain tensions are shifting from digital chips to analog chips.
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JPMorgan: Weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity; the upward cycle is not yet nearing its end.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, JPMorgan strategists stated that the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity, as the chip upcycle is not yet nearing its end, and truly meaningful new supply may not appear until 2028. The bank noted that the SOX Semiconductor Index fell approximately 5.4% in the shortened trading week before the Independence Day holiday, marking its second consecutive week of decline. However, the sector rebounded rapidly on Monday, with Marvell, Broadcom, and storage-related stocks such as Western Digital and Seagate leading the gains, indicating that funds are still willing to return to the AI hardware chain. JPMorgan's view is not entirely bullish on AI concepts. The bank prefers the semiconductor and infrastructure sectors, while remaining cautious about the so-called "AI cannibalization" area—industries that may be replaced by AI, have lower prices, or have reduced profit margins. Sectors most affected include software, business services, and media. In other words, JPMorgan believes that AI will still create winners, but it may not benefit all AI-related companies; the certainty for hardware suppliers is higher in the short term than for some application and service companies.
Analysts: Apparent demand for Bitcoin has been almost entirely negative this year, but has recently improved.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published an article stating that Bitcoin's apparent demand has been almost entirely negative this year, reflecting continued weak market demand, a key reason for the ongoing pressure on Bitcoin's price. However, recent improvements in demand have helped BTC maintain its consolidation within the current price range. On June 3rd, Bitcoin's apparent demand plummeted to a year-low of -275,000 BTC, but has since recovered to approximately -75,000 BTC. While the magnitude of this improvement is noteworthy, a true recovery in demand requires the indicator to return to positive territory. He explained that the apparent demand indicator is calculated by the difference between "newly issued BTC" and "BTC supply that has not moved in over a year," and can be used to measure whether the structural accumulation by long-term holders is sufficient to absorb the new supply on the network. Currently, while long-term demand has recovered somewhat, it has not yet reached a level sufficient to drive the market into a new upward trend.
South Korean think tank: Chip boom offsets manufacturing weakness, South Korean economy still on recovery track
According to Odaily Odaily, a South Korean official think tank stated on Wednesday that the South Korean economy remains on a recovery track, with the booming chip industry offsetting the overall slowdown in manufacturing. The Korea Development Institute (KDI), in its monthly economic assessment report, noted that South Korea's exports continued their "strong" expansion, driven by robust demand related to artificial intelligence. South Korea's monthly exports surpassed the $100 billion mark for the first time in June, reaching $102.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%, setting a new record. KDI stated, "Although the growth rate of semiconductor exports has slowed, export value remains strong, supported by continued price increases." Driven by surging demand for memory chips, semiconductor exports nearly tripled to $44.82 billion, marking the first time monthly exports have exceeded $40 billion. However, KDI noted a slight decline in manufacturing output as "the rapid growth momentum in the semiconductor sector has slowed, and other sectors remain sluggish." KDI added that high oil prices and a weakening Korean won against the US dollar could "continue to exert upward pressure on prices, increasing the risk of further interest rate hikes and thus dragging down the recovery in consumption." (Jinshi)
The high temperatures and heatwaves have spurred a multi-dimensional demand for cooling measures, leading to the expansion and upgrading of the "cooling economy."
Since the beginning of summer, widespread high temperatures have persisted across the country, leading to a surge in demand for cooling solutions across various sectors, including consumer goods, industrial production, and computing power. This has reshaped traditional summer consumption patterns. The high temperatures have not only boosted orders for household and commercial cooling equipment both domestically and internationally, activating the traditional peak season for cooling-related consumption, but have also driven record-breaking electricity loads across society. The pent-up demand for power supply continues to be released, while simultaneously forcing AI data centers to accelerate the iteration and implementation of liquid cooling technology. Analysts point out that from the booming production and sales of household appliances and the stable supply and efficiency of the power industry chain to the expansion of the digital infrastructure thermal management sector, the cooling economy is moving beyond its purely seasonal nature, extending and upgrading across the entire spectrum of the real economy and the digital economy. Listed companies are seizing this structural opportunity, improving efficiency in traditional sectors and proactively positioning themselves in emerging sectors, comprehensively opening up new avenues for summer economic growth. (China Securities Journal)
US pre-market news at a glance: Samsung's earnings report triggered a collective weakness in semiconductor stocks in pre-market trading; SpaceX officially debuts on the Nasdaq 100 today.
According to BlockBeats, the following are key market news items before the US stock market opened on July 7th: 1. Samsung released its Q2 earnings forecast, showing an operating profit increase of over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profits exceeding the total of the previous three years. Simultaneously, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won. Affected by the semiconductor sell-off triggered by the "sell-off" of Samsung's earnings, chip-related technology stocks generally weakened in pre-market trading. The three major US stock futures indices showed mixed results in pre-market trading: Dow Jones futures rose 0.41%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.09%. 2. SpaceX officially debuted on the Nasdaq 100 before the US stock market opened today, with Wall Street institutions collectively bullish. Most institutions believe that SpaceX is no longer just a traditional aerospace company, but a platform company with the potential for rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, AI infrastructure, and future space computing. 3. DeepSeek is secretly developing its own inference chip. If successful, this would reduce reliance on external suppliers and give it more cost-effective hardware control. However, the project is still in its early stages and faces manufacturing and memory acquisition restrictions due to US export controls. 4. UBS recommends investors buy SK Hynix's upcoming American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and sell its South Korean shares, as these new shares are expected to trade at higher prices. 5. JPMorgan strategists say the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity, as the chip upcycle is not yet over, and truly meaningful new supply may not appear until 2028. 6. US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20 was 21,000, compared to 30,750 in the previous week. 7. BlackRock will launch an ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, aiming to meet investors' growing demand for participation in the AI-driven stock market rally and challenge Invesco's dominant position. 8. Amazon is returning to the US bond market to raise funds for its artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company will issue eight benchmark bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 40 years, raising at least $25 billion in the dollar bond offering. 9. Global brokerages have begun coverage research on Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), and a preliminary consensus has formed on Wall Street: buy the stock. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have given it a buy rating, optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, although doubts remain about profitability and valuation.
US pre-market news highlights: EDA giants focus on AI chip design; SpaceX officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index; Analysts say AI computing power demand is far from peaking.
Mars Finance reports the following key financial news from the US stock market that investors should pay attention to: 1. US stock index futures showed mixed results. Dow Jones futures rose 0.29%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.94%. 2. International oil prices rose slightly. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.61% to $68.967 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.74% to $72.526 per barrel. 3. International gold and silver spot prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot gold rose 0.03% to $4166.01 per ounce; spot silver fell 0.64% to $61.62 per ounce. 4. European stock indices all fell. The UK FTSE 100 rose 0.47%, the French CAC 40 rose 0.20%, and the German DAX 30 fell 0.63%. 5. EDA giant Synopsys informed more than 10 chip manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in April and May that it would "suspend" some of its wafer fab manufacturing analysis software, shifting resources to the more profitable AI chip design business. 6. SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index today, becoming the first company in the index with a space business at its core. JPMorgan Chase estimates its weight in the index at approximately 1.3%. Wall Street generally gave it an "initial bullish" rating, with a target price as high as $800. 7. Google invested over €400 million in Proxima Fusion, a European nuclear fusion "unicorn" company, with the aim of building a commercial fusion power plant by the 2030s. 8. Anthropic announced a 20-year AI data center lease agreement with AI data center operator TeraWulf. The project has a capacity of approximately 401 megawatts and is expected to be operational in the second half of 2027, reaching full capacity in early 2028. 9. A recent report from semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis indicates that AI computing power demand is far from peaking. The firm predicts that Meta computing power procurement will accelerate, and capital expenditure may increase significantly next year. 10. Walmart and its Sam's Club announced price reductions on thousands of popular summer items and everyday essentials across the United States. 11. Microsoft raised its Microsoft 365 Enterprise subscription fee earlier this month, with increases ranging from 8% to 33%. Personal and Education versions are currently unaffected. (Cailian Press)