Analysis: The target range for this weak Bitc…

According to Mars Finance, on July 4th, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the average cost of current short-term Bitcoin holdings (held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range. The price needs to repeatedly attempt to break through this range to gradually bring the cost trend line together. However, each attempt to break through triggers some weak holders to cash out when unrealized losses turn into unrealized profits. This cycle of "breakout—resistance—pullback—breakout again" is a necessary process for forming a bottom consensus. Based on this, the analyst divides the expected rebound into three levels: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost logic, while $70,000 is the realized price (STH-RP) for short-term holders, which is often considered the ceiling for a bear market rebound. In the on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP is the sentiment bull-bear dividing line; every trend reversal begins with the last breakout above this line. Analysts personally favor a "weak rebound," predicting a move to the $64,000 to $68,000 range. A break above $70,000 would be defined as a strong rebound, at which point partial profit-taking on existing positions would be considered to allow for future adjustments. Options market data also shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma state around $62,000; hedging near this level will suppress volatility. After a breakout, the next positive Gamma level falls precisely between $66,000 and $68,000, also forming a resistance zone.

Analysis: The target range for this weak Bitcoin rebound is $64,000 to $68,000, with $70,000 being the ceiling for a short-term rebound in the bear market.

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