In the past three days, the US has escorted only 70 merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz, down from the pre-conflict daily average of 138.
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Iran launches at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, AXIOS reported that a US official stated that Iran fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Two merchant ships were hit and severely damaged, but there were no casualties.
The number of ships in the Strait of Hormuz's Omani shipping lanes has sharply decreased, and Iran continues to strengthen its control over the waterways.
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, reports indicated a significant decrease in the number of ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman on Sunday. This followed a sharp turnaround the previous day by several vessels attempting to leave the strait along the route, highlighting Iran's continued efforts to strengthen its control over this strategic waterway. An oil tanker that turned back on Saturday appears to be attempting to pass again and has now passed the northernmost tip of Oman's Musandem Peninsula. Earlier, another oil tanker also traveled along the same route and publicly announced its intention to navigate, currently broadcasting its position information in the Gulf of Oman. Other vessels are opting for unauthorized transit. A Suezmax crude oil tanker appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday after its last position broadcast in the Persian Gulf on Saturday. Between Friday and Saturday, at least eight vessels suddenly turned back while transiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani route. Four of these subsequently changed course northward, exiting the strait via the Iranian side of the route. There is currently no official explanation for these sudden turns. However, Iran has repeatedly stated that ships can only transit the Strait of Hormuz via designated and authorized routes. According to Kpler data, 19 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions on Saturday, but only one ship publicly indicated it would enter the strait via the Omani coastal route, compared to 13 ships using that route on Friday. These statistics only cover observable navigation activities.
Vance: Commercial shipping has achieved free passage in the past three days.
According to Mars Finance, on July 1st, US Vice President Vance stated that commercial shipping had achieved freedom of movement over the past three days. (Jinshi)
Iranian sources say Iran insists on retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to two high- Odaily Iranian sources, Iran is determined to gain international recognition for its control over the Strait of Hormuz and its right to charge fees for ships entering and leaving the Gulf, even if it requires the use of force. Under the interim agreement reached this month with the United States aimed at ending the three-month conflict, Iran agreed to allow ships to pass through the strait free of charge for 60 days. However, Iran believes the wording of the agreement allows it to continue to control which ships can pass and their routes within this narrow waterway. Sources say Iran is also determined to ensure long-term formal recognition of this control after the interim agreement expires; its negotiators will not turn to other contentious issues in peace talks with Washington until a consensus is reached on this issue. (Jinshi)
The Strait of Hormuz now has three different shipping routes, making shipping more complex.
According to Mars Finance, on June 30th, CNN reported on June 29th that three different shipping routes have emerged in the Strait of Hormuz: The first route is located in the northern part of the strait and is controlled by Iran. The second route crosses the middle of the strait and was the regular international shipping route before the strait was blocked; the third route is located in the southern part of the strait, passing through the waters near Oman, and is coordinated by Oman, the United States, and the International Maritime Organization. Market analysts say that due to the different management of these multiple routes, the shipping order in the Strait of Hormuz has become more complex.
Iran refuses to recognize the 1968 Strait of Hormuz navigation agreement and demands renegotiation of the rules of passage.
According to a report by The New York Times on June 30th, BlockBeats reported that Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi reiterated this week Iran's permanent control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and refused to recognize the internationally recognized shipping lane arrangement established in 1968. This stance has strained the fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. The shipping lane agreement, negotiated by then-officials from Iran and Oman and approved by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), primarily addresses the collision risks of supertankers navigating the narrow 24-mile-wide strait. It also has legal significance due to the overlap of Iranian and Omani territorial waters and the absence of neutral international waters in the central part of the strait. Gharibabadi stated that the agreement predates the 1979 Islamic Revolution, adding, "We have now informed Oman that these shipping lanes must be changed," and that both sides have decided to initiate expert and technical negotiations regarding the lane adjustments. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, believes that Iran, as a regional military power in the past, did not need to use its geographical location as leverage. However, officials now believe that traditional shipping lanes allow warships to pass through the Strait, posing a threat to Iran's security. Jennifer Parker, an expert at the Institute for Defence and Security Studies at the University of Western Australia, stated that Iran is packaging its position with a more legally sound narrative, aiming to maximize its bargaining power at the negotiating table. It is worth noting that Iran has previously laid mines in the Strait, effectively blocking the shipping lane established in 1968. The United States and Oman have recently attempted to establish an alternative passage in Omani waters south of the Strait, escorted by US forces. However, Gharibabadi reiterated on Monday that Iran will refuse to recognize any such parallel shipping lanes.