Lighter's recent positive news: a rebound of over 2.5 times from its lows!
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Wintermute: The recent Bitcoin price movement is a rebound and correction, not a structural shift in the market.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Decrypt, market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin's recent nearly 10% rebound is a "textbook rally" rather than a structural market shift, and the company remains cautious. Wintermute pointed out that the easing of the macro environment, the Fed's dovish stance, and positive news regarding Ethereum and institutional adoption are the three factors driving the rebound, sufficient to explain the current market movement without needing a larger narrative. The company believes the market may continue to "rise slightly." However, Wintermute stated that a single data point does not constitute a trend, and more sustained inflows are needed to confirm a structural shift; until broader capital flows truly reverse, the current movement is merely a correction.
Analysis: Weak US employment data eased concerns about interest rate hikes, and the return of buying interest in Bitcoin spot ETFs, among other positive factors, drove a Bitcoin rebound.
According to BlockBeats, on July 3rd, weaker-than-expected US employment data eased market concerns about further tightening by the Federal Reserve and boosted demand for risk assets. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst, stated that the data undermined claims of a renewed acceleration in the US labor market. The interest rate market is still pricing in a rate hike this year, but the implied probability has fallen from approximately 85% before the data release to 77%, and the probability of a rate hike this month has also decreased from approximately 30% to approximately 18%. Regarding fund flows, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $224 million on Thursday, ending a 10-day streak of outflows, indicating that bargain hunting has returned after approximately $2.4 billion in redemptions. Analysts at QCP Capital stated that pressure in the options market also eased with the spot market rebound, with one-week at-the-money implied volatility falling from the mid-40% range to the high-30% range, and the term structure returning to a positive spread after inverting during the sell-off. However, the QCP believes the employment data is not entirely dovish. While job growth fell short of expectations, faster wage growth, a declining unemployment rate, and strong consumer spending suggest a contraction in labor supply rather than a cooling demand, leaving room for the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance. The QCP stated that the market has postponed rate hike expectations from September to December, but cross-asset performance does not yet support a genuine policy shift. Further attention should be paid to the CPI on July 14th, the PPI on July 15th, and the FOMC meeting at the end of the month.
Williams: Recent inflation outlook is more positive due to energy prices
According to Mars Finance, as reported by Jinshi, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that his view on inflation has become more positive recently due to the impact of energy prices.
LIT continued its upward trend after adjusting its token economic model, breaking through $2.7 and rebounding 2.5 times from its low.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, LIT (Lighter) continued its upward trend after announcing a major adjustment to its token economic model, rebounding from a low of $0.77 to $2.7, a 22% increase in the past 24 hours. Lighter previously announced that future buybacks through exchange revenue will be changed from simple buybacks to permanent burning, with plans to burn approximately 15.5 million LIT already repurchased, representing about 6.3% of the circulating supply. This mechanism will be officially implemented starting in the third quarter of 2026. Furthermore, the source of staking rewards will shift from exchange revenue to ecosystem reserve funds.
Analysis: Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000, with long-term holders buying back in, but ETFs continued to see outflows.
Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000 on Thursday, recovering from a 21-month low hit earlier this week, showing signs of recovery after significant market volatility. The US Odaily Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $296 million on July 1st, continuing the trend of capital outflows; June saw a single-month outflow of approximately $4.5 billion, one of the worst months on record. The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF saw the largest single-day net inflow at $36.3 million. On-chain data shows that long-term holders have re-entered the accumulation phase after a prolonged distribution period, with increased buying activity from addresses holding 100-1000 BTC. Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are at a loss, compared to 9.22 million BTC in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish points out that increased buying in the Coinbase order book and stabilizing market maker Gamma positions indicate structural support is forming, but the derivatives market remains cautious. The options market's put/call ratio has risen to a one-year high, implied volatility is increasing, and demand for safe-haven assets is strengthening; meanwhile, Hyperliquid's long leveraged exposure has reached a recent high, indicating a divergence in market sentiment. In terms of price structure, Bitcoin repeatedly tested support after briefly falling below $58,000, and is currently still below the key Gamma Flip range of approximately $68,000; a price of around $53,000 is considered an important structural support level. On the macro level, weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data and a delayed market expectation of interest rate cuts mean the crypto market remains in a phase of fund rotation and structural competition. (The Block)
Samsung will release its preliminary Q2 financial results tomorrow: profits are expected to surge 18 times, with executives boasting that "one year's profits are equivalent to 40 years' worth."
According to BlockBeats, Samsung Electronics will release its preliminary Q2 2026 results on July 7th, while SK Hynix will list its ADRs on Nasdaq on July 10th. With these two major events for South Korea's semiconductor giants, the market is highly focused on the industry's health and the impact of AI chip demand on earnings. According to a compilation of forecasts from 30 analysts by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit is expected to be approximately 86 trillion won (about US$56.3 billion), with some brokerages predicting as high as 90 trillion won, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 17-18 times, potentially marking its best quarterly performance in recent years. Prior to the preliminary earnings release, Samsung Electronics management has already released positive signals. Kim Yong-kwan, President of Business Strategy for Samsung Electronics Device Solutions (DS) division, stated at an internal all-hands meeting on July 3rd that the company's full-year 2026 operating profit is expected to meet market consensus expectations. Currently, the market generally expects Samsung Electronics' full-year operating profit to be approximately 300 trillion won (about US$200 billion), with improvements in AI servers, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and wafer foundry business considered the main drivers of growth. Kim Yong-kwan also stated, "This year's profit will exceed the total cumulative profit of our 40 years in the semiconductor business." Industry insiders believe this is a rare instance of Samsung Electronics management proactively making a positive statement about the full-year profit outlook before officially disclosing the results, reflecting the company's strong confidence in the recovery of its AI-driven semiconductor business and its overall performance growth for the year. With the release of Samsung's financial report and the upcoming listing of SK Hynix's ADRs, the South Korean semiconductor sector will be entering its most important market observation window in the near future.