Citrini analyst Jukan: Samsung Foundry achieved monthly profitability in June, its first since 2023.
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Samsung Electronics' foundry business returned to profitability in June for the first time in three years.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Samsung Electronics' foundry business achieved monthly profitability in June of this year. This is the first time the business has recorded monthly profitability since 2023. Industry insiders believe that increased orders for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) base chips and improved yields in advanced processes reduced fixed costs, driving the recovery in profitability. Based on current trends, Samsung's foundry business is expected to achieve quarterly profitability in the third quarter of this year. Although the overall performance in the second quarter was still dragged down by losses in April and May, making it difficult to determine whether the entire quarter had achieved profitability, with the turnaround in June, Samsung generally believes that the possibility of the company achieving quarterly profitability in the third quarter has significantly increased. Analysts believe that this is the first time Samsung's foundry business has achieved monthly profitability since 2023. In the past few years, this business has been in a state of long-term loss, mainly due to multiple factors including low yields in advanced processes, the loss of large customers, and insufficient capacity utilization.
Citrini analyst Jukan: MediaTek reportedly has secured Meta as an ASIC customer, following its TPU offerings.
According to a post on the X platform by Citrini analyst Jukan, Odaily Odaily, supply chain sources indicate that MediaTek has essentially secured a second ASIC customer besides Google. If all goes as planned, this customer will be Meta, previously rumored. MediaTek, as is customary, does not publicly comment on individual products, customer situations, or market rumors. While Qualcomm currently appears to have key customers such as Meta, Microsoft, and ByteDance, industry insiders believe that MediaTek's continued deepening of its cooperation with Google and its potential to secure a second customer puts it at a disadvantage. Semiconductor supply chain sources state that, considering the order prospects and generational transition pace of major cloud service providers for AI data centers and ASIC products, Google remains the most aggressive and proactive major customer. MediaTek not only has two products codenamed Zebrafish and Humufish, but according to market information and confirmation from industry insiders familiar with ASICs, its participation in the v9 generation Triggerfish is almost certain. This means that from the end of 2026 to 2028, and even into 2029, MediaTek can reliably receive revenue contributions from TPU mass production. Compared to Qualcomm's $15 billion cloud AI revenue target for 2029, it's only a matter of time before MediaTek, holding multiple TPU ASIC orders, reaches the $10 billion level. The industry is also focused on whether MediaTek can successfully secure its second major cloud service provider client. Based on earlier market information and recent supply chain confirmations, MediaTek is still actively collaborating with Meta on ASIC products, likely focusing on AI acceleration chips. Meta recently partnered with Arm and Qualcomm, but the products are all CPU-oriented, with no further concrete news regarding its self-developed AI acceleration chips. IC design industry insiders say that Meta's recent cloud AI development strategy has indeed been rather chaotic and unclear, with multiple adjustments to its internal chip development plans, seeking multiple partners and adopting different solutions in the CPU field alone. Regarding AI acceleration chips, although Meta has officially announced its collaboration with Broadcom, supply chain sources indicate that this has not interrupted the ongoing collaboration between MediaTek and Meta. IC design industry professionals also emphasized that MediaTek and Qualcomm's cloud AI development blueprints are still significantly different. MediaTek is concentrating all its resources on ASIC business, while Qualcomm plans to simultaneously promote customization and standardization, while also covering AI acceleration chips and CPU products.
Citrini Analyst: China's CXMT tests pilot production line for bonding DRAM; South Korean media claims its technology and development speed may be ahead of its South Korean rivals.
According to a Odaily by Citrini analyst Jukan on the X platform, South Korean media reports that China's CXMT is currently testing a bonded DRAM pilot production line in Hefei, aiming to achieve high-performance DRAM without using EUV lithography. Bonded DRAM is a technology that manufactures the memory cell array and peripheral circuitry on separate wafers and then bonds them together. This method can produce ultra-high-density DRAM using only multi-patterned deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography, without requiring EUV equipment. Samsung Electronics is developing its own bonded DRAM under Project B1b, and SK hynix is also advancing similar technology. South Korean media warns that assessments suggest CXMT may currently be ahead of its South Korean competitors in terms of both the technology itself and the speed of its development.
Samsung's foundry business is expected to secure orders from Meta and Anthropic, and is projected to return to profitability in the fourth quarter.
According to ChainCatcher, South Korean media reports that Samsung Electronics' foundry business is accelerating its expansion in the global AI chip market. Following its AI chip order from Tesla last year, Samsung is currently advancing its custom ASIC production collaboration with Meta and Anthropic. Meta is reportedly in talks with Samsung for a next-generation ASIC design and manufacturing contract worth over 10 trillion won. Meta's third-generation AI accelerator, "MTIA," plans to switch from TSMC to Samsung's most advanced 2nm process for mass production, with early chip architecture design handled jointly by Samsung's System LSI division to match its rapid development cycle of one generation every six months. Furthermore, US AI company Anthropic is also evaluating the use of Samsung's 2nm process to develop custom ASICs, aiming to internalize its AI infrastructure. Industry insiders point out that with the influx of AI chip orders from global tech giants, coupled with the ongoing negotiations with BYD for an automotive chip manufacturing agreement, Samsung's medium- to long-term order backlog for its wafer foundry business is expected to approach 50 trillion won, and it is expected to achieve a turnaround in operating profit in the fourth quarter of this year.
Analysts: Samsung's better-than-expected earnings report is already priced in; investors are concerned about the sustainability of AI.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, Samsung Electronics issued a better-than-expected earnings forecast: the company's operating profit increased by over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profits exceeding the total of the previous three years. Simultaneously, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won. However, investors seemed unconvinced, and Samsung Electronics' stock price fell sharply after the South Korean stock market opened, with a maximum drop of 8%. Analysts attributed Samsung's weak stock price to some overly high market expectations: after including employee bonus provisions, profits driven by record memory chip prices could have exceeded 90 trillion won. Furthermore, the market is also concerned about a potential slowdown in the construction of AI data centers. Albert Yong, Managing Partner of Petra Capital Management, stated, "Samsung's strong performance had already been widely anticipated by the market and largely priced in during the pre-earnings stock price increase. Investors remain concerned about the sustainability of the AI boom and the risk of a potential slowdown in AI infrastructure spending by major US technology companies."
Samsung is projected to earn more in one year than in the previous 40 years, with operating profit estimated at approximately $200 billion this year.
According to a post on the X platform by Citrini analyst Jukan, as reported by Odaily Odaily, South Korean media stated that Kim Yong-kwan, President and Head of Business Strategy at Samsung Electronics Device Solutions, said at an all-hands meeting of DS division management on July 3 that this year's operating profit is expected to meet market consensus. South Korean securities firms estimate that Samsung Electronics' operating profit this year will be approximately 300 trillion won, equivalent to about US$200 billion. Kim Yong-kwan reportedly stated that this year's profit alone will exceed the cumulative profits generated by Samsung in its 40 years in the semiconductor business.