More severe than the dot-com bubble: Token co…

According to Beating's monitoring, the Silicon Data LLM Token consumption index, which tracks users' actual computing power expenditure, has fallen nearly 20% from its May high. This sudden halt in high growth sends a crucial warning to investors: large model vendors may be losing pricing power with cost-sensitive clients, and it has also raised doubts about the ultimate return on investment for the hundreds of billions of dollars in AI capital expenditure. The divide between bulls and bears has intensified. Bears point out that Allianz Research data shows the growth gap between AI investment and sales has reached 46%, exceeding the 32% imbalance seen during the 2001 telecom bubble burst. Bulls counter that while the average token price has plummeted by 90% since 2023, total expenditure has still nearly doubled, meaning the index decline is merely a structural digestion after price cuts stimulated consumption, and the long-term return on investment in the inference phase is far more optimistic than in the training phase. Increased policy regulation is translating into hidden compliance costs for enterprise users. Washington has imposed stronger policy scrutiny on the distribution and cross-border access of cutting-edge models (such as the release review of OpenAI and geopolitical export controls on Anthropic models). Coupled with the EU's Artificial Intelligence Act's stringent compliance requirements for top-tier models, this has placed a heavy policy burden on leading platforms. To mitigate geopolitical and compliance risks, corporate CFOs have a more rational reason to proactively shift their workloads towards lightweight models that are less subject to regulatory constraints. Subtle changes are also emerging in the hardware chip sector. Although orders for top-tier GPUs and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are booked until 2026, with substantial supply-demand easing not expected until 2028, the market's main procurement focus has shifted from training chips to inference optimization hardware, and the winners are being reshuffled.

More severe than the dot-com bubble: Token consumption plummeted by 20%, and the gap between AI investment and sales growth reached 46%.

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