Market divergence in views on the yen's outlook has intensified, with a former Japanese finance official stating that a reasonable exchange rate should be around 130.
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Analysis: Demand in the US market remains weak, making it difficult for Bitcoin's July rally to continue.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin's July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched indicators, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. This indicator measures the price difference of BTC on the US trading platforms Coinbase and Binance. The continued underperformance of BTC on Coinbase compared to Binance indicates relatively weak demand in the US market. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, whereas historically, Bitcoin bull runs have typically been accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a 30-year high, pushing up borrowing costs in the US, UK, and Germany. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, it could pose resistance to BTC. Bitfinex analysts stated that structural institutional buying remains unverified until BlackRock's IBIT resumes its sustained inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated that if the spot Bitcoin ETF continues its trend following last Friday's return to inflows, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The agency added that if BTC clearly reclaims $64,000 this week, it will further boost market sentiment and alleviate market concerns about Strategy (MSTR), a publicly traded Bitcoin holding company.
Former SEC, CFTC Officials Urge Lighter Touch to Bring Crypto Perps Trading Onshore
With the Clarity Act stuck in recess limbo, the agencies are pressing ahead on crypto derivatives and custody, as former officials warn that overly burdensome rules will keep a $90 trillion perps market offshore.
South Korean stocks plunge 20%, nearing a bear market; the AI boom faces the awkward situation of "the more disastrous the earnings, the steeper the decline."
According to BlockBeats, on Wednesday afternoon, July 8th, South Korean stocks extended their losses as investors reassessed the outlook for AI demand. The KOSPI index fell by more than 6% at one point, breaking below 7200 points, and has cumulatively fallen by more than 20% from its all-time high last month, poised to enter technical bear market territory. Memory chip maker SK Hynix fell by as much as 5%, and Samsung Electronics fell by 6.9%. The Korea Exchange initiated a temporary trading halt on the KOSPI index, suspending algorithmic trading. South Korean stocks were among the strongest performing markets globally this year, but their performance is highly dependent on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, amplifying volatility when sector sentiment weakens. Even with Samsung Electronics announcing a 19-fold surge in quarterly profits earlier this week, chip stocks continued to be under pressure. Jordan Klein, a TMT sector expert at Mizuho Securities, stated that investors overreacted to Samsung's preliminary second-quarter results. He believes this sell-off in semiconductor stocks is more a sign of waning momentum than a deterioration in fundamentals. Klein stated that excluding one-off bonus expenses, Samsung's operating profit actually significantly exceeded expectations, with its storage business implied operating margin potentially exceeding 80%. He indicated that Samsung's single-quarter operating profit has already surpassed the total of the past three years, and reacting to Samsung's stock price based solely on preliminary results is "extremely short-sighted." Meanwhile, an AI trading rotation occurred in Asian markets. Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks rose, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising as much as 3.4%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 5% intraday, Alibaba rising over 8%, and Tencent rising over 3%. Market analysts believe that funds are flowing from crowded trades focused on AI infrastructure to markets with lower valuations and more value-oriented characteristics. Reuters' report on DeepSeek's self-developed chip and The Information's report on Zhipu AI considering designing its own AI chip further fueled this rotation. (Jinshi)
Analysis: Strategy sold off its first large-scale BTC transaction in five years, but the market did not show excessive panic.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, marking the company's largest Bitcoin sale in history. However, the market did not experience a significant drop, with the BTC price remaining around $63,000. This is Strategy's first large-scale net sale since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: 1,363 BTC were sold between June 29th and 30th at an average price of approximately $59,256, generating $80.8 million; 2,225 BTC were sold between July 1st and 5th at an average price of approximately $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total of approximately $216 million. This sale is primarily intended to pay preferred stock obligations and replenish dollar reserves, and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. The company currently holds approximately 843,775 BTC and approximately $2.55 billion in dollar reserves. This sale represents only about 0.4% of its holdings, indicating more liquidity management than a signal of divestment. From the derivatives market perspective, the news of Strategy's sale led to a significant cooling of sentiment in the Bitcoin futures market. The composite market index fell from the bullish zone of around 80 on July 6th to 32.6, entering the bearish zone, and at one point approached 20, indicating that leveraged funds began to shift towards a defensive stance. However, the Bitcoin price reacted only moderately, currently remaining above its 30-day fair value. The market tends to view this sale as a passive liquidity operation rather than a systematic exit from Bitcoin by Strategy. The market is currently in a "neutral to cautious" state, with relatively stable price performance, but derivatives positions have clearly weakened. If the overall market index rises back above 55, it may indicate a recovery in market risk appetite; if it remains below 45 for an extended period, it could further drag BTC down below its fair value.
Japanese and South Korean stock markets closed lower, with South Korean stocks triggering a second circuit breaker during trading.
PANews reported on July 7th that, according to Jinshi, the Nikkei 225 index closed down 1480.73 points, or 2.12%, at 68256.96 on Tuesday, July 7th. The South Korean KOSPI index closed down 395.41 points, or 4.91%, at 7655.92 on Tuesday, July 7th, having fallen more than 8% intraday, triggering a second circuit breaker. Among individual stocks, SK Hynix closed down 6%, and Samsung Electronics fell nearly 7%.
Midday Review: Shanghai Composite Index falls over 1%, dropping below 4000 points; Trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets shrinks by over 570 billion yuan in the first half of the day.
According to Mars Finance, the market fluctuated and adjusted in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4,000-point mark. The divergence between the yellow and white lines was obvious, with small and mid-cap stocks generally declining, and the micro-cap index falling by more than 3%. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in the first half of the day was 1.63 trillion yuan, a decrease of 575.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Market hotspots were scattered, with over 4,700 stocks declining across the market. In terms of sectors, the semiconductor industry chain bucked the trend and strengthened, with semiconductor silicon wafer concepts performing actively, and Yanyou Silicon hitting the 20cm daily limit. The computing power chip concept fluctuated and rose, with Muxi Shares rising over 15%, and Wantong Development achieving two consecutive daily limits. The advanced packaging concept fluctuated and rebounded, with Dagang Shares and Huatian Technology hitting the daily limit. On the downside, the innovative drug concept fluctuated and declined, with Hainan Haiyao hitting the daily limit down. The non-ferrous metals sector weakened, with Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit down, and Xiaocheng Technology, Hunan Baiyin, and many other stocks falling sharply. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.78%. (Cailian Press)