CITIC Securities: South Korea is expected to become a key player in the era of physical AI.
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Huatai Securities: South Korea's high export growth indicates that global AI supply chain trade is still on an upward trend, and the Asian AI supply chain is expected to continue to benefit.
Mars Finance reported on July 6th that a research report from Huatai Securities pointed out that the continued strong performance of AI chain exports drove South Korea's June exports to significantly exceed expectations, with the trade surplus reaching a new historical high. Looking ahead, leading indicators show that AI chain trade will maintain high growth, and South Korean exports are expected to continue their strong performance, potentially driving South Korea's nominal GDP to maintain a relatively high growth rate. In the short term, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which leads South Korean semiconductor exports by about four months, remains high year-on-year, indicating that the strong performance of South Korean semiconductor exports is likely to continue; at the same time, against the backdrop of strong AI demand, memory prices are still rising, and prices will continue to support nominal exports. The high growth of South Korean exports indicates that global AI chain trade is still on an upward trend, and the AI supply chain in Asia, including South Korea and China, is expected to continue to benefit. (Wide Angle Observation)
Circuit breakers have become commonplace in the South Korean stock market, with high volatility attracting retail investors, turning trading in South Korean stocks into a "squid game."
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, the Wall Street Journal published an article analyzing the recent high volatility of the South Korean stock market. The article cited data showing that in the past year, the South Korean KOSPI index fluctuated by more than 2% on 77 separate days. During the same period, the S&P 500 index in the US experienced only five such instances. The KOSPI fluctuated by more than 3% on 44 days, while the S&P 500 never exceeded 3%, and the KOSPI fluctuated by more than 5% on 23 days. The report stated that this volatility has become one of the factors attracting many South Korean retail investors who trade purely for the sake of trading. Maxence Visseau, founder of macro and quantitative hedge fund Arkevium Capital, commented, "Volatility is the key attraction for retail investors seeking excitement." The report also noted that foreign capital outflows exceeded $100 billion (approximately 154 trillion won) in the first half of this year, with $30 billion flowing out in June alone. This trend "could ultimately harm local investors."
South Korean regulators introduce tokenized securities roadmap
South Korea’s financial regulator introduced a three-phase roadmap for the issuance of tokenized assets, as the country prepares to adopt its first tokenized securities framework in February 2027.
Goldman Sachs: South Korean stocks are expected to see a broad-based rally in the second half of the year; maintains KOSPI target of 12,000 points.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs released a new research report stating that the upward trend in the South Korean stock market in the second half of the year is expected to spread from AI storage leaders such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to more sectors including energy, raw materials, and industrial manufacturing. Overseas funds are gradually positioning themselves in the upstream and downstream of the AI industry chain and other independent investment opportunities. Regarding market concerns about a bubble in the South Korean stock market, Goldman Sachs believes that the current increase in margin balances is mainly due to the growth of leveraged ETF net asset value, rather than new borrowing by investors. South Korean residents' assets are still mainly in real estate, cash, and overseas stocks, and the domestic stock market still has room for incremental capital inflows. Goldman Sachs predicts that South Korean companies' overall net profit will increase by approximately 320% year-on-year in 2026 and will maintain a growth rate of approximately 35% in 2027. It maintains its 12-month target of 12,000 points for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), representing an upside of over 20% from current levels, but expects increased market volatility in the future.
South Korea's Supreme Court plans to introduce procedures for the seizure and disposal of crypto assets, which are expected to be formally implemented in October.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, the South Korean Supreme Court proposed a draft amendment to its civil enforcement rules, aiming to establish procedures for the seizure, attachment, and liquidation of crypto assets, providing a clear legal basis for courts to enforce civil judgments involving cryptocurrencies. According to the draft, after a court issues a seizure order, the debtor will be immediately prohibited from disposing of the relevant crypto assets and must transfer the assets to a court enforcement officer. The seizure will officially take effect upon the officer's receipt. Regarding asset disposal, the court can directly transfer the crypto assets to the creditor according to the value determined by the court, or instruct the enforcement officer to sell the assets. The enforcement officer can transfer the assets to a dedicated account of a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) for sale, or entrust a relevant platform to sell them on their behalf; if necessary, the assets can also be converted into more liquid cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin before liquidation. Furthermore, the draft amendment clarifies preservation measures for crypto assets during litigation, including preliminary attachment and injunctions, to prevent debtors from transferring or concealing crypto assets. The South Korean Supreme Court stated that with the increasing number of civil cases involving crypto assets, it is necessary to improve the relevant enforcement rules. The draft will be open for public comment until August 11, and the revisions are expected to take effect in October this year.
Nomura Securities: Market concerns about "overcapacity" may be excessive; South Korean chip investment is unlikely to quickly translate into production capacity.
According to Mars Finance, Nomura Securities analysts stated in a recent report that market concerns about "computing power oversupply" may be excessive, and the memory chip industry still has a long way to go before entering a downward cycle. The market is currently facing a severe shortage driven by artificial intelligence demand, with major chip manufacturers prioritizing the production of more profitable high-bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to limited supply of ordinary DRAM and NAND. Nomura analysts emphasized that in this context, concerns about oversupply are excessive. Because the semiconductor industry's construction and development cycles are often very long, projects announced by South Korean chip giants are unlikely to have a substantial impact on supply for several years. (Cailian Press)