SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 today; the short-term impact of passive funds on the stock price may be less than expected.
Related
SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week; historical warnings point to post-inclusion volatility. TeraWulf's Q1 HPC leasing revenue surpassed mining's high-margin annualized revenue of $630 million for the first time.
According to ChainCatcher and BBX data, the world's largest IPO completed its index inclusion milestone yesterday, marking a historic turning point in the valuation logic of mining companies' AI transformation. Key developments are as follows: SpaceX, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SPCX) was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, becoming the first company in history to have its largest single IPO ($75 billion) included in the Nasdaq 100. CoinDesk also issued a historic warning: "The previous two largest additions to the index—Palantir ($PLTR) in December 2024 and Strategy ($MSTR) in early 2025—both experienced a period of decline after inclusion, rather than initiating a new round of growth." Analysts pointed out that passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 completed a "forced buy" at the time of inclusion, and without new fundamental catalysts, the stock price often corrects after the technical buying subsides. SpaceX currently faces specific risks including: a net loss of approximately $4.27 billion in Q1 2026 (primarily due to xAI integration expenses), a $2 billion bond issuance plan, and a 3.4% equity dilution from the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor/Anysphere; Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate of $62 per share, implying a downside of approximately 70% from the current market price. For the market holding SpaceX Bitcoin (18,712 coins, approximately $1.2 billion, custodied in Coinbase Prime), Nasdaq 100 inclusion will trigger larger-scale SPCX holdings by passive funds, further narrowing the indirect exposure of traditional index investors to Bitcoin assets. According to the latest analysis, TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: $WULF) reported $21 million in high-performance computing (HPC) leasing revenue in Q1 2026, accounting for approximately 62% of its total revenue of $34 million. This marks the first time TeraWulf has surpassed Bitcoin mining revenue—a historic reversal in revenue structure since its transformation into an AI/HPC infrastructure company. This represents a 117% increase compared to the $9.7 million in HPC revenue in Q4 2025. The company currently has AI/HPC leases totaling over 522 megawatts signed with Core42 and Fluidstack, with an expected annualized high-margin revenue of approximately $630 million. Its energy mix consists of nuclear power and hydropower, with an average electricity cost of approximately $0.035/kWh, among the lowest of its peers in the mining industry. The company is also developing a new campus in Kentucky, adding approximately 480 megawatts of grid connection capacity; analysts have significantly raised their target price range, with Keefe Bruyette & Woods from $23 to $37, and Clear...
SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 on July 7th. Historical cases show that there has been a pullback after inclusion.
According to Odaily Odaily, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, becoming one of the fastest large IPOs to be included in the index's history. Historical data shows that index inclusion does not necessarily signal a sustained upward trend; in some cases, it has become a temporary peak. After Palantir Technologies was included in the Nasdaq 100 in December 2024, its stock price peaked around the time of inclusion, followed by a correction of about 25% in the following weeks. Strategy also entered a correction period shortly after its inclusion, with a significant pullback from its peak. Analysts point out that this phenomenon typically stems from market expectations being priced in ahead of time, passive buying having already been traded in advance, and sentiment reaching a temporary high before inclusion. If historical patterns continue, SpaceX's short-term performance after inclusion in the index may face volatility rather than a one-sided upward trend.
US pre-market news highlights: EDA giants focus on AI chip design; SpaceX officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index; Analysts say AI computing power demand is far from peaking.
Mars Finance reports the following key financial news from the US stock market that investors should pay attention to: 1. US stock index futures showed mixed results. Dow Jones futures rose 0.29%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.94%. 2. International oil prices rose slightly. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.61% to $68.967 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.74% to $72.526 per barrel. 3. International gold and silver spot prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot gold rose 0.03% to $4166.01 per ounce; spot silver fell 0.64% to $61.62 per ounce. 4. European stock indices all fell. The UK FTSE 100 rose 0.47%, the French CAC 40 rose 0.20%, and the German DAX 30 fell 0.63%. 5. EDA giant Synopsys informed more than 10 chip manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in April and May that it would "suspend" some of its wafer fab manufacturing analysis software, shifting resources to the more profitable AI chip design business. 6. SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index today, becoming the first company in the index with a space business at its core. JPMorgan Chase estimates its weight in the index at approximately 1.3%. Wall Street generally gave it an "initial bullish" rating, with a target price as high as $800. 7. Google invested over €400 million in Proxima Fusion, a European nuclear fusion "unicorn" company, with the aim of building a commercial fusion power plant by the 2030s. 8. Anthropic announced a 20-year AI data center lease agreement with AI data center operator TeraWulf. The project has a capacity of approximately 401 megawatts and is expected to be operational in the second half of 2027, reaching full capacity in early 2028. 9. A recent report from semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis indicates that AI computing power demand is far from peaking. The firm predicts that Meta computing power procurement will accelerate, and capital expenditure may increase significantly next year. 10. Walmart and its Sam's Club announced price reductions on thousands of popular summer items and everyday essentials across the United States. 11. Microsoft raised its Microsoft 365 Enterprise subscription fee earlier this month, with increases ranging from 8% to 33%. Personal and Education versions are currently unaffected. (Cailian Press)
Crypto Market Preview This Week: Fed Meeting Minutes to be Released, SpaceX to be Included in Nasdaq 100 Index
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, the crypto market will focus on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, US economic data, and several crypto industry events this week. The macro environment and on-chain dynamics may jointly influence the price movements of digital assets. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June FOMC meeting in the early hours of July 9th (Beijing time), with the market hoping to use this information to determine the future path of interest rates. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI, consumer inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, and China's June CPI data will also be released successively. On the industry front, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, becoming the fourth index component stock to hold Bitcoin, following Tesla, Strategy, and Mercado Libre. Data shows that SpaceX currently holds approximately 18,712 BTC, and its inclusion in the index is expected to benefit from the passive allocation demand of index funds. In addition, American Bitcoin (ABTC), a US mining company, will resume trading after completing a 1:15 reverse stock split to avoid delisting from Nasdaq; Berachain will complete its PoL Next upgrade on July 7. Regarding on-chain governance, ENS DAO, Frax DAO, Nexus Mutual DAO, and Arbitrum DAO will all conclude voting on multiple governance proposals this week. Regarding token unlocking, Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.2% of its circulating supply on July 6, worth approximately $30.39 million; RAIN will unlock approximately 7.64% of its circulating supply on July 11, worth approximately $787 million; and PUMP will unlock approximately 29.12% of its circulating supply on July 12, worth approximately $130 million. Besides macroeconomic data, developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation and the continued weakening of the yen are also worth noting. Recently, Bitcoin has shown a strong negative correlation with the USD/JPY exchange rate, with the depreciation of the yen often accompanied by a rise in Bitcoin prices.
Nasdaq makes special arrangements for SpaceX: $42 billion in passive funds were invested; the real test will be the unlocking of the shares on August 6.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, fund managers tracking the Nasdaq 100 index will complete a mandatory rebalancing after the market closes on Tuesday, with approximately $4.3 billion passively buying SpaceX (SPCX) shares. Tens of millions of US investors holding Nasdaq funds in 401(k), IRA, or regular accounts will become SpaceX shareholders "passively" without their knowledge. Starting July 7th, SpaceX will officially become a Nasdaq 100 component stock—the fastest company to be added to a major US index in history, with related funds holding approximately 0.5% to 0.7% of the index. Previously, Nasdaq required new stocks to be listed for at least three months and have at least 10% public shareholding before inclusion in the index. However, the new rules that took effect on May 1st significantly lowered the threshold—as long as the market capitalization ranks within the top 40 of existing component stocks, only 15 trading days and 5 days' advance notice are required for "fast inclusion." This rule was implemented exactly six weeks before SpaceX's IPO on June 12th. Critics argue that this window is "too short to complete price discovery," even going so far as to call it "the most shameless manipulation of major indices," benefiting the company, existing shareholders, and the exchange, while passive fund holders are forced to bear the price costs. SpaceX's publicly traded shares account for only 3% to 5%, and with the float multiplier, passive buying far exceeds the actual float's capacity. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains unchanged, maintaining its existing 12-month observation period and four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability requirements. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter and a projected loss of $4.94 billion for the full year of 2025, meaning it may not meet the S&P inclusion criteria until mid-2027 at the earliest. Analysts point out that the real test will come on August 6th—when the company releases its first quarterly earnings report, and approximately 20% of insider shares will be released from lock-up, potentially reversing the supply-demand balance due to the disappearance of passive buying and potential selling pressure.
Analysis: SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index presents Bitcoin investment opportunities for passive index investors.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Bitcoin Magazine, SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, after disclosing that its balance sheet held 18,712 bitcoins. JPMorgan Chase estimates that this index rebalancing will drive approximately $4.3 billion in passive inflows into funds and ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100. This means that institutional capital has gained structural exposure to Bitcoin through corporate treasury channels. With SpaceX's addition, the number of companies holding Bitcoin treasuries in the Nasdaq 100 has increased to three (SpaceX, Tesla, and Strategy). Analysts point out that index inclusion creates demand driven by rules rather than active allocation, and Bitcoin holdings combined with strong fundamentals can improve a company's market visibility and liquidity.