Analysts are concerned that the memory chip sector may repeat Nvidia's pattern of "new highs in fundamentals, sideways stock price."
Related
Analysts: Samsung's better-than-expected earnings report is already priced in; investors are concerned about the sustainability of AI.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, Samsung Electronics issued a better-than-expected earnings forecast: the company's operating profit increased by over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profits exceeding the total of the previous three years. Simultaneously, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won. However, investors seemed unconvinced, and Samsung Electronics' stock price fell sharply after the South Korean stock market opened, with a maximum drop of 8%. Analysts attributed Samsung's weak stock price to some overly high market expectations: after including employee bonus provisions, profits driven by record memory chip prices could have exceeded 90 trillion won. Furthermore, the market is also concerned about a potential slowdown in the construction of AI data centers. Albert Yong, Managing Partner of Petra Capital Management, stated, "Samsung's strong performance had already been widely anticipated by the market and largely priced in during the pre-earnings stock price increase. Investors remain concerned about the sustainability of the AI boom and the risk of a potential slowdown in AI infrastructure spending by major US technology companies."
US stocks saw the Nasdaq under pressure in overnight trading, but the semiconductor and memory sectors rebounded strongly, with memory chains leading the gains among tech stocks.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, based on BIT (bit.com) market data, the three major US stock indices diverged in overnight trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.14%, the S&P 500 was essentially flat, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%. Market structure indicates that funds continued to rebalance within growth stocks, with traditional heavyweights and value sectors showing relative strength. Within the technology sector, however, divergence and volatility were observed, although the semiconductor and memory sectors clearly exhibited independent rebounds, driven by the need for valuation repair after previous corrections. NVIDIA (NVDA) rose 0.17%, TSMC (TSM) rose 2.11%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 1.94%, Seagate Technology (STX) rose 3.39%, Western Digital (WDC) rose 4.91%, SanDisk (SNDK) rose 5.85%, and Micron Technology (MU) rose 4.36%.
Memory chip concept stocks opened sharply higher, with Jiangbolong rising over 10%.
According to Mars Finance, memory chip concept stocks opened sharply higher this morning, with Jiangbolong rising over 10%, followed by CECPORT, Biwin Storage, Langke Technology, Puran Technology, and Shannon Semiconductor. On the news front, on the evening of July 3rd, Jiangbolong, a leading stock in the memory chip sector, released its earnings forecast, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.2 billion to 11 billion yuan for the first half of 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 62,204%-74,394%. Furthermore, industry insiders confirmed that the news of Samsung's plan to raise DRAM prices by 20% in the third quarter is true, and Samsung has already verbally notified some customers of the price increase. (Cailian Press)
Micron Technology is investing $9.3 billion to expand its advanced memory chip project, with HBM expected to ship in the second half of 2028.
PANews reported on July 5th that Micron Technology officially launched the expansion project of its Hiroshima plant in western Japan on Saturday (July 4th). This project, with a total investment of 1.5 trillion yen (approximately US$9.3 billion), aims to produce advanced memory chips, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), to meet the booming demand driven by the artificial intelligence wave. HBM is a key component of Nvidia's AI processors, and the plant is expected to begin shipping around the summer of 2028. Recently, Micron, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix have all announced plans to expand their manufacturing capabilities. Earlier this week, SK Hynix announced plans to invest 80 trillion won (approximately US$51.46 billion) to build a new NAND memory chip factory in Cheongju, the capital of North Chungcheong Province, South Korea.
Micron Japan launches over $9 billion chip expansion project, betting on the high bandwidth memory demand in AI.
Odaily Odaily reports that Micron officially broke ground on Saturday for its factory expansion project in Higashihiroshima City, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan. The project, with a total investment of approximately 1.5 trillion yen (about US$9.3 billion), will produce advanced memory chips for the AI era. The new production line will focus on manufacturing key chips such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which are core components supporting the performance of AI processors from companies like Nvidia. Shipments of these chips are expected to begin as early as the summer of 2028. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has provided subsidies of up to 500 billion yen for the project to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and enhance supply chain resilience. This expansion project is seen as a significant step for Japan in strengthening its semiconductor manufacturing footprint in the global AI chip competition. (Bloomberg)
Garrett Jin: The memory sector has peaked for the time being; hyperscale cloud providers are poised for a rebound.
According to BlockBeats, on July 2nd, Garrett Jin, an agent of "BTC OG Insider Whale," stated that the memory sector has reached a temporary peak. Micron encountered resistance at $1250 and fell back. Even after its earnings report significantly exceeded expectations, its stock price still fell sharply on high volume, indicating that the positive news has been fully priced in and there is no follow-up buying – a clear signal of a temporary top. Funds are rapidly withdrawing from memory stocks, with DRAM ETFs experiencing a significant drop on high volume. SK Hynix and Samsung are also under pressure. In the past two months, foreign investors have withdrawn over 100 trillion won (approximately $65 billion) from the South Korean market. However, funds have not left the AI sector but are rotating within it. While chip stocks were sold off last Friday, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon saw significant bottoming out on high volume, and Meta also rose sharply on high volume today. Garrett Jin believes the underlying logic behind the rotation is token optimization: as more and more workloads are handled by inexpensive models for simple tasks, value gradually accumulates in the cloud and orchestration layers billed by tokens, rather than the model layer itself. This is precisely the moat of hyperscale cloud providers. Based on this, he predicts that hyperscale cloud providers will experience a round of catch-up growth, suggesting reducing holdings in memory and joining the catch-up rebound of large cloud providers.