On the eve of SPCX's inclusion in the Nasdaq: Retail investors tend to be bullish and chase the rally, but whale place a $4.4 million sell order above.
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SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week; historical warnings point to post-inclusion volatility. TeraWulf's Q1 HPC leasing revenue surpassed mining's high-margin annualized revenue of $630 million for the first time.
According to ChainCatcher and BBX data, the world's largest IPO completed its index inclusion milestone yesterday, marking a historic turning point in the valuation logic of mining companies' AI transformation. Key developments are as follows: SpaceX, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SPCX) was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, becoming the first company in history to have its largest single IPO ($75 billion) included in the Nasdaq 100. CoinDesk also issued a historic warning: "The previous two largest additions to the index—Palantir ($PLTR) in December 2024 and Strategy ($MSTR) in early 2025—both experienced a period of decline after inclusion, rather than initiating a new round of growth." Analysts pointed out that passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 completed a "forced buy" at the time of inclusion, and without new fundamental catalysts, the stock price often corrects after the technical buying subsides. SpaceX currently faces specific risks including: a net loss of approximately $4.27 billion in Q1 2026 (primarily due to xAI integration expenses), a $2 billion bond issuance plan, and a 3.4% equity dilution from the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor/Anysphere; Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate of $62 per share, implying a downside of approximately 70% from the current market price. For the market holding SpaceX Bitcoin (18,712 coins, approximately $1.2 billion, custodied in Coinbase Prime), Nasdaq 100 inclusion will trigger larger-scale SPCX holdings by passive funds, further narrowing the indirect exposure of traditional index investors to Bitcoin assets. According to the latest analysis, TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: $WULF) reported $21 million in high-performance computing (HPC) leasing revenue in Q1 2026, accounting for approximately 62% of its total revenue of $34 million. This marks the first time TeraWulf has surpassed Bitcoin mining revenue—a historic reversal in revenue structure since its transformation into an AI/HPC infrastructure company. This represents a 117% increase compared to the $9.7 million in HPC revenue in Q4 2025. The company currently has AI/HPC leases totaling over 522 megawatts signed with Core42 and Fluidstack, with an expected annualized high-margin revenue of approximately $630 million. Its energy mix consists of nuclear power and hydropower, with an average electricity cost of approximately $0.035/kWh, among the lowest of its peers in the mining industry. The company is also developing a new campus in Kentucky, adding approximately 480 megawatts of grid connection capacity; analysts have significantly raised their target price range, with Keefe Bruyette & Woods from $23 to $37, and Clear...
Analysis: SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index presents Bitcoin investment opportunities for passive index investors.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Bitcoin Magazine, SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, after disclosing that its balance sheet held 18,712 bitcoins. JPMorgan Chase estimates that this index rebalancing will drive approximately $4.3 billion in passive inflows into funds and ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100. This means that institutional capital has gained structural exposure to Bitcoin through corporate treasury channels. With SpaceX's addition, the number of companies holding Bitcoin treasuries in the Nasdaq 100 has increased to three (SpaceX, Tesla, and Strategy). Analysts point out that index inclusion creates demand driven by rules rather than active allocation, and Bitcoin holdings combined with strong fundamentals can improve a company's market visibility and liquidity.
US pre-market news at a glance: Samsung's earnings report triggered a collective weakness in semiconductor stocks in pre-market trading; SpaceX officially debuts on the Nasdaq 100 today.
According to BlockBeats, the following are key market news items before the US stock market opened on July 7th: 1. Samsung released its Q2 earnings forecast, showing an operating profit increase of over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profits exceeding the total of the previous three years. Simultaneously, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won. Affected by the semiconductor sell-off triggered by the "sell-off" of Samsung's earnings, chip-related technology stocks generally weakened in pre-market trading. The three major US stock futures indices showed mixed results in pre-market trading: Dow Jones futures rose 0.41%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.09%. 2. SpaceX officially debuted on the Nasdaq 100 before the US stock market opened today, with Wall Street institutions collectively bullish. Most institutions believe that SpaceX is no longer just a traditional aerospace company, but a platform company with the potential for rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, AI infrastructure, and future space computing. 3. DeepSeek is secretly developing its own inference chip. If successful, this would reduce reliance on external suppliers and give it more cost-effective hardware control. However, the project is still in its early stages and faces manufacturing and memory acquisition restrictions due to US export controls. 4. UBS recommends investors buy SK Hynix's upcoming American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and sell its South Korean shares, as these new shares are expected to trade at higher prices. 5. JPMorgan strategists say the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity, as the chip upcycle is not yet over, and truly meaningful new supply may not appear until 2028. 6. US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20 was 21,000, compared to 30,750 in the previous week. 7. BlackRock will launch an ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, aiming to meet investors' growing demand for participation in the AI-driven stock market rally and challenge Invesco's dominant position. 8. Amazon is returning to the US bond market to raise funds for its artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company will issue eight benchmark bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 40 years, raising at least $25 billion in the dollar bond offering. 9. Global brokerages have begun coverage research on Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), and a preliminary consensus has formed on Wall Street: buy the stock. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have given it a buy rating, optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, although doubts remain about profitability and valuation.
Circuit breakers have become commonplace in the South Korean stock market, with high volatility attracting retail investors, turning trading in South Korean stocks into a "squid game."
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, the Wall Street Journal published an article analyzing the recent high volatility of the South Korean stock market. The article cited data showing that in the past year, the South Korean KOSPI index fluctuated by more than 2% on 77 separate days. During the same period, the S&P 500 index in the US experienced only five such instances. The KOSPI fluctuated by more than 3% on 44 days, while the S&P 500 never exceeded 3%, and the KOSPI fluctuated by more than 5% on 23 days. The report stated that this volatility has become one of the factors attracting many South Korean retail investors who trade purely for the sake of trading. Maxence Visseau, founder of macro and quantitative hedge fund Arkevium Capital, commented, "Volatility is the key attraction for retail investors seeking excitement." The report also noted that foreign capital outflows exceeded $100 billion (approximately 154 trillion won) in the first half of this year, with $30 billion flowing out in June alone. This trend "could ultimately harm local investors."
Toyota Finance opens tokenized bonds to retail investors via mobile payment app
Retail investors can apply to buy the 1 billion yen bond without a securities account and receive perks through Toyota’s payment app.
One hour before Trump's statement, a short position of 21 million (long oil, short Nasdaq) saw significant profits after investors added to their short positions.
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, Hyperinsight monitoring showed that an address starting with 0xec4 had already established a long position in Brent crude oil with 20x leverage two days prior. Then, approximately one hour before Trump's Middle East statements triggered a market surge, a short position in the Nasdaq 100 was significantly increased with 30x leverage. Subsequently, oil prices jumped, and risk assets came under pressure, leading to profit-taking on both sides. As of press time, the two highly leveraged positions at this address had a combined unrealized profit of approximately $510,000. The return on the Brent crude oil long position reached 189%, and the return on the Nasdaq 100 short position reached 37%. The entry times were as follows: July 6th afternoon: Brent crude oil long position established with 20x leverage; July 7th evening: Nasdaq 100 mapped contract (XYZ100) opened with a base position of approximately 200 contracts with 30x leverage; This afternoon (approximately 1 hour before the statement): Significantly increased short positions, pushing the XYZ100 short position to 600 contracts, valued at approximately $17.304 million, completing the setup just before the news was released. On the news front, Trump's latest statement indicated that the temporary ceasefire arrangements between the US and Iran may have ended, and the market re-priced in Middle East geopolitical risk premiums. Reports indicate that crude oil futures jumped approximately 5% after the statement. Current core positions: Brent crude oil (BRENTOIL) long positions: 50,000 contracts, approximately $3.915 million, average price $71.8645, liquidation price $37.26, unrealized profit approximately $322,000; Nasdaq 100 mapped contract (XYZ100) short positions: 600 contracts, approximately $17.304 million, average price $29,108.44, liquidation price $32,119.96, unrealized profit approximately $161,000.