ADATA: Memory prices will rise by 20%-30% in Q3, and flash memory prices will rise by 35%-40%.
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Institutions: Memory prices were supported by AI servers in the third quarter, but increasing pressure on the consumer side caused the price increase to slow down.
Mars Finance reported on July 3rd that, according to TrendForce's latest memory price survey, the overall DRAM market will remain extremely tight in the third quarter of 2026. However, due to downward revisions in consumer application demand and the high base effect, contract price increases will be limited, with a projected quarter-on-quarter increase of 13-18%. NAND Flash demand will still be primarily supported by AI inference and large-scale data center construction. However, as contract prices have reached historical highs, consumer customers' price tolerance has reached its limit amid slowing demand. Overall NAND Flash contract prices are estimated to increase by 10-15% quarter-on-quarter, a significantly smaller increase than in previous quarters. (Wide Angle Observation)
Serenity: Prices of upstream materials for AI optical interconnects are expected to continue to rise.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Serenity published an article stating that a recent research report from Nomura Securities points out that with the continued surge in AI infrastructure construction, the upstream photonics materials supply chain is facing the dual pressures of surging demand and tightening supply. AXTI and IQE are among the main beneficiaries in the indium phosphide (InP) industry chain. In terms of price, the price of 2-inch InP substrates is expected to rise by 42% to 76%, and 3-inch InP substrates by approximately 78%; the price of 2-inch EML epitaxial wafers is expected to rise by 50% to 75%, and the price of 3-inch CW epitaxial wafers will also increase by more than 40%. The report believes that the continued expansion of AI data centers by hyperscale cloud service providers is driving the entire optical communication industry chain into a phase of tight supply and demand. Bottlenecks have appeared in all aspects, from material prices and end-user demand to supply capacity. Serenity stated that as the demand for AI optical interconnects continues to be released in the coming years, the price of upstream photonics materials will continue to rise, similar to the price increase cycle previously experienced by SanDisk. Whether this prediction is accurate remains to be seen, as the demand for AI continues to rise over the next two years.
Kairuide: Plans to invest 80 million yuan in aerospace-grade memory chip company Aikesa Technology
According to Mars Finance, Kairuide (002072.SZ) announced that it has invested 80 million yuan of its own funds to subscribe for newly increased registered capital of Aikesa Technology (Chengdu) Co., Ltd., corresponding to an 11.7647% equity stake after the capital increase. The company stated that this investment aims to seize opportunities in emerging industries and promote strategic transformation and upgrading. The target company is currently not profitable and is expected to continue to incur losses in 2026, resulting in significant uncertainty regarding investment returns. The target company belongs to the integrated circuit design, software, and information technology services industry, focusing on the R&D and production of aerospace-grade memory chips and spaceborne storage systems, positioning itself as a provider of aerospace-grade SSDs, controller chips, and spaceborne storage systems for low-Earth orbit/high-Earth orbit satellites and spacecraft. (Cailian Press)
Bernstein: The storage bull market could continue into 2027, but the steepest part of the rise has passed.
According to Mars Finance, on July 8th, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein released its monthly global memory tracking report, stating that DRAM contract prices continued to rise month-on-month in June, implying that the average price of traditional DRAM in Q2 2026 will increase by approximately 74% compared to Q1. Demand from servers and mobile devices remains the main driver, with Server DRAM prices expected to rise by approximately 60% to 67% in Q2, and Mobile DRAM by nearly 80%. The spot market also shows tight supply. PC DRAM spot prices rose 5.6% to 11.5% month-on-month in June, while Server DRAM rose 6.1% to 26.4%. The report stated that Server DDR5 performed particularly strongly, with spot prices significantly higher than contract prices, indicating that demand from AI and cloud service providers is still absorbing the new capacity shifted by suppliers to the server market. However, Bernstein also cautioned that the rate of price increases will slow significantly in Q3. TrendForce predicts that traditional DRAM price increases will slow to 13% to 18% in the third quarter, down from the steep increases in the second quarter. PC, mobile phone, and consumer electronics customers are reducing configurations or adjusting purchasing paces; while demand disruption is not yet fully apparent, the report believes it will eventually occur. The situation for NAND is more divergent. In June, NAND wafer spot prices actually fell by 3% to 4%, while wafer contract prices rose only slightly by 0.3% to 3.7%. However, strong price increases in mobile NAND and SSDs will still drive overall NAND contract prices up by about 60% in the second quarter. Bernstein stated that SSD and mobile storage price increases could reach 70% to 80%, offsetting the weakness on the wafer side. The key variable in this storage cycle remains AI. Cloud service providers and server customers continue to prioritize securing supply; some US CSPs have completed long-term agreement negotiations, while Chinese CSPs are still negotiating. Long-term agreements help smooth future price declines but may also limit the room for some suppliers to continue raising prices. In its investment conclusions, Bernstein maintains positive ratings for Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, while remaining cautious on Kioxia. The report believes that storage prices may remain strong until 2027, but will gradually normalize from the second half of 2027 to 2028 as long-term agreements take effect and new capacity comes online.
Counterpoint: Despite recent stock price corrections, the fundamentals of memory chips remain solid.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, MS Hwang, Director of Counterpoint Research, stated that the recent stock price pullback of memory chip manufacturers does not signify a fundamental shift in the memory chip market. Samsung Electronics fell 6.9% on Tuesday, and SK Hynix fell 6.1%, despite Samsung expecting another record-breaking quarter driven by strong demand. Some investors may believe that much of Samsung's upside potential, driven by expectations of improved profitability, has already been priced in. He said, "Recent strikes and political discussions surrounding profit sharing may also raise concerns about future shareholder returns." However, he pointed out that the fundamentals of memory chip manufacturers remain solid. According to Counterpoint's July memory chip price tracking report, DRAM prices are expected to rise 10%-20% in the third quarter, higher than its initial forecast of 5%-10%, as customers continue to place orders ahead of schedule.
Semiconductor equipment sector rebounds after fluctuations; Zhengfan Technology rises over 10%.
Mars Finance reports that the semiconductor equipment sector rebounded during trading, with Zhengfan Technology surging over 10%, and Xianfeng Precision Technology, Xinyuan Microelectronics, Huafeng Measurement & Control, Jingyi Equipment, and Zhongke Feice all rising over 6%. On the news front, lithography machine giant ASML announced an upward revision of its full-year revenue guidance, primarily due to continued growth in demand for advanced lithography equipment related to AI chip manufacturing. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics' spring 2026 forecast shows that the global semiconductor market size will reach $1.51 trillion in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 90%. (Cailian Press)