Wintermute: Bitcoin's rise is more in line wi…

According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that the latest US non-farm payroll data significantly missed market expectations, coupled with Warsh's speech being interpreted as dovish, driving a general rebound in global risk assets, with the crypto market performing the best. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recently. Bitcoin's current rally has a more solid foundation, mainly driven by continued whale buying, options fund flows towards call options, and improved on-chain data. The end of net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs also boosted market sentiment. The cooling US job market has further reduced market expectations for interest rate hikes this year, while Warsh reiterated the 2% inflation target at the Sintra Forum but did not release more hawkish signals, which investors interpreted as a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In the crypto market, on-chain data shows that whale wallets have accumulated over 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average, while options market funds have shifted from hedging positions to call options with strike prices of $60,000 to $70,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum's rise is largely driven by institutional narratives, including the official launch of Ethereum Institutional and the continued progress of institutional tokenization infrastructure. However, the Ethereum Foundation's recent layoffs of approximately 20% and budget cuts of about 40%, along with previous outflows from ETH ETFs, still reflect some pressure on its fundamentals. This round of gains is more characteristic of a "relief rebound" than the start of a new long-term bull market. Improved macroeconomic environment, easing tensions in the Middle East, continued institutional investment in Ethereum, and low liquidity during the summer have all contributed to the market recovery. However, from a funding perspective, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $2.73 billion this year. Until ETF fund flows continue to improve and form a trend, the market should still view the current situation as a sentiment correction rather than a structural reversal, and remain cautious about the future.

Wintermute: Bitcoin's rise is more in line with the characteristics of a "relief rally" than the start of a new bull market.

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