Swiss private bank Julius Baer: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates, and gold prices are expected to rebound.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Walter offered two key considerations for monetary policy: initial conditions and forward guidance determine the transmission effect.
According to Odaily Odaily, Federal Reserve Bank of Walter Waller offered two points of consideration regarding the monetary policy transmission mechanism, emphasizing that policy effectiveness depends on initial conditions and the way forward guidance is used: First, "initial conditions are crucial," meaning monetary policy assessments should be based on current economic conditions, not historical averages. Second, regarding the role of forward guidance, he believes that while forward guidance can accelerate policy transmission in certain situations by influencing market expectations and changing financial conditions in advance, if it is too rigid or lacks flexibility, it may weaken policy effectiveness or even delay necessary policy adjustments. Waller emphasized that when multiple economic scenarios exist, the “average path” cannot be simply used as a basis for policy guidance, and policymaking needs to maintain adaptability and flexibility to different scenarios.
Opinion: Warsh should publicly resist Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve and uphold the central bank's independence.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Levin published an article stating that US President Trump and his allies are continuously pushing to influence Federal Reserve decisions through personnel changes, including attempting to replace Fed Governor Lisa Cook and interfering in the selection of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president, in order to expand the influence of White House supporters on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Levin believes that Kevin Warsh, considered a leading candidate for the next Fed chair, should publicly oppose White House interference, support Jerome Powell and Cook to complete their terms, and demand that the White House withdraw from the selection process for regional Fed presidents; otherwise, his future credibility in leading the Fed and his influence within the committee will be weakened. The Fed's independence is key to maintaining stable inflation expectations and the credibility of monetary policy; continued political interference could damage the stability of the US macroeconomy.
Federal Reserve Bank of Canada President Daly emphasized that the dual mandate objectives remain unchanged, but expressed a willingness to assess the economy using new methods.
Odaily Odaily reports that Federal Reserve Bank of Canada President Tom Daly stated that inflation should begin to slow, but the economic outlook remains highly uncertain. Speaking at a Spanish central bank event in Santander on Thursday, Daly said, "We continue to maintain a slightly restrictive policy level, so inflation should decline." Daly noted that tariffs and rising oil prices this spring, following the US-led war with Iran, pushed up inflation. She praised the slowdown in oil prices following the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, saying it brought "hope for easing," but warned that it remains unclear how the economy will evolve. She outlined several scenarios that might require different responses from the Federal Reserve, and suggested that the Fed may need to take a more aggressive approach to persistent inflation. Daly also pointed out that she is open to using different and novel methods to assess the economy, but for the credibility of the Federal Reserve, it is important not to change its mission of promoting full employment and price stability. (Jinshi)
Warsh appointed former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to co-chair the Federal Reserve's new communications task force.
According to Mars Finance, on July 1, market sources reported that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh appointed former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to co-chair the Fed's new communications task force.
The Reserve Bank of India supports the cryptocurrency ban, while tax authorities warn of potential tax evasion risks.
According to Reuters, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reiterated its call for a “ban” on cryptocurrencies, while the country’s tax authorities have warned that transactions conducted through offshore exchanges are difficult to trace. These documents reveal that while the government has not yet enacted a policy banning or regulating cryptocurrencies, key Indian government agencies are leaning towards stricter restrictions on virtual digital assets. India has allowed cryptocurrencies to exist in a gray area since a 2018 court ruling that the RBI’s de facto ban on cryptocurrencies was invalid. Legislation drafted in 2021 to ban private cryptocurrencies has never been submitted to parliament, and a discussion document on the issue has been repeatedly delayed. The government has postponed the implementation of a formal virtual asset policy, stating that any plan should balance innovation with risk management while protecting monetary sovereignty, financial stability, and preventing consumer losses.
Bloomberg ETF analyst: US stocks are "too big to fail," and the Federal Reserve may purchase stock ETFs to rescue the market.
PANews reported on July 7th that Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, released research stating that the US stock market is gradually becoming a de facto "retirement fund" for Americans. With approximately 55% of Americans holding stocks and the "Trump Accounts" program expected to add about 28 million new investors, the link between the stock market and household wealth, pensions, and social stability is becoming increasingly close. He believes that in the next major bear market, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to purchase stock ETFs for the first time to stabilize the market, similar to its purchase of corporate bond ETFs in 2020, and the actions of the central banks of Japan and China. Balchunas believes that future political pressure will make a prolonged bear market increasingly intolerable, and the continued inflow of funds into ETFs on dips and investors' widespread expectation of government intervention also reflect this trend.