Billionaire Grantham is bearish on SpaceX: 90% chance of eventual collapse, questions AI and the Mars narrative.
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Wall Street has given SpaceX an "initially bullish" rating, with Morgan Stanley predicting the stock price could rise by as much as 87%.
According to a report by ChainCatcher on July 7th, SpaceX has gained initial support from Wall Street, with global brokerages beginning to rate the rocket and AI company led by Elon Musk and reaching a clear consensus: buy the stock. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have begun rating the stock with a buy rating, endorsing SpaceX's long-term growth narrative, despite lingering questions surrounding the company's profitability, execution, and valuation. Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $300, one of the highest on Wall Street, implying an 87% upside from Monday's closing price of $160.42. Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX's share price to be $75 in a bear market scenario and $600 in a bull market scenario, with revenue potentially reaching $319 billion by 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040.
Tim Draper: Two rocket launches failed when investing in SpaceX; the real excess returns come from embracing uncertainty.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, renowned venture capitalist Tim Draper stated that his investment philosophy has always been to bet on innovative projects where the market has not yet reached a consensus. He recalled that his venture capital firm, Draper Associates, was one of SpaceX's earliest external investors. After the investment, SpaceX's first two rocket launches ended in failure, but with the success of the third launch, the company eventually attracted a large number of customers with launch costs far lower than NASA's, growing into a company with a market value of over $2 trillion. Regarding AI, Draper stated that although xAI lags behind competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic in terms of market share and enterprise adoption, he is still more optimistic about xAI, believing that it focuses more on providing real information rather than catering to users. He predicts that the AI industry will undergo a reshuffling similar to that after the dot-com bubble, with true industry giants likely to emerge after the next round of adjustments. Draper believes that innovation requires a free entrepreneurial environment, stating that the United States and Singapore remain the most attractive startup destinations.
Analysts: SpaceX stock price encountered strong resistance at $165; if pressured, it may fall back to the $149 range.
Odaily Odaily reports that analyst Ali, writing on the X platform, points out that SpaceX's stock price has currently reached the key resistance level of $165, which is considered the top of its channel. As long as $165 is not effectively broken, the short-term trend remains biased towards a pullback, with the price potentially falling back to $157, or even further down to the lower edge of the channel at around $149. Ali added that if the price can effectively break through and hold above $165, it will negate the current bearish structure and may open up upside potential, targeting around $180.
With SpaceX's 7-day countdown to its Nasdaq listing, a whale has preemptively opened a $3.26 million long position in the SPCX.
According to BlockBeats, on June 30th, Hyperinsight monitoring showed that with SpaceX's inclusion in the Russell 1000 index today, only 7 days remain until its official inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th. The market expects this index adjustment to bring in approximately $4.3 billion in passive investment funds. On Hyperliquid, SPCX (SpaceX) rose 3.6% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $163, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $230 million and open interest of $199 million. On Hyperliquid, large short positions (in the millions of dollars) on the SPCX remain predominantly bearish, with short positions totaling approximately $70.9 million and long positions approximately $49.15 million, making the short positions 1.44 times larger than the long positions. The average entry price for these large short positions was approximately $167.7, and the most recent liquidation price was approximately $193.1. Among them, the largest short whale, established a short position with 2x leverage about 5 days ago. The current position is worth about $11 million, with an average entry price of $155.5. As SPCX continues to rebound, the unrealized loss has expanded to about $452,000. Meanwhile, some funds have already begun positioning themselves for the index inclusion rally. Today, an address starting with 0xe4c isolated margin of $3.26 million in SPCX with 8x leverage, at an average entry price of $160.5 and a liquidation price of $144. As of press time, the position has already shown a floating profit of approximately 13%, making it the largest new long position opened recently.
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