Serenity回应AI股暴跌：投资组合单月已回撤49%，但长期逻辑未变
Related
Serenity: Google's computing power limitations may explain Meta's major signing of AI Neocloud, which is beneficial for AI data center capital expenditure.
According to Mars Finance, on June 28th, Serenity published an article stating that Google reportedly limited Meta's computing capacity in March 2026 due to scarce computing resources. This may explain why Meta signed a large-scale cooperation agreement with AI Neocloud service providers (such as NBIS) at that time, and also resulted in some limitations on the capabilities of the Gemini model. Serenity pointed out that Google's CEO previously stated in an earnings call that insufficient computing resources limited Google Cloud from handling more customer demand, with the backlog of related orders almost doubling compared to the previous quarter. Serenity believes that this situation further illustrates that the computing power supply of hyperscale cloud providers is still far below market demand, and they cannot even complement each other's resources. In the long run, this will continue to support the logic of AI data center construction and capital expenditure expansion.
Serenity: The robotics sector is on the verge of explosive growth, with both capital and transactions accelerating.
According to Odaily Odaily, Serenity, the "white-haired stock guru," stated in an article on the X platform that robotics is becoming the next major focus of capital investment. According to PitchBook data from March (cited from a16z's observation), both the number of transactions and the amount of investment in this field have shown a "steep upward" trend, indicating that funds are rapidly converging on the robotics sector. It is worth noting that there is a significant "cross-mapping" effect between current AI infrastructure investment and the humanoid robot industry: many underlying investments related to AI data centers (DCs) are also providing key support for the large-scale deployment of humanoid robots. For example, the relationship between DRAM/NAND and storage/inference capabilities corresponds to the robot's memory and real-time inference capabilities; DFB laser and photonics technologies are directly related to the application of FMCW LiDAR in robot vision and perception systems. The market's main exposure is currently concentrated in upstream components and basic technologies, as well as in the internal projects of large technology companies, such as robotics and automation initiatives within the ecosystems of Amazon and Tesla. Looking ahead, as the technology chain matures, companies specializing in humanoid robots and robot bodies are expected to enter a global IPO window around 2027. The market generally anticipates that the period from the second half of the year to 2027 may mark the beginning of a significant cycle for the securitization of independent robot assets.
White-haired stock market guru Serenity agrees with Wells Fargo's view that Meta's sale of excess computing power is a signal of strong AI demand.
Odaily Odaily reports that Serenity, a well-known stock market commentator, posted on X agreeing with Wells Fargo's viewpoint, believing the market has completely misinterpreted Meta's statement regarding the sale of excess computing power. Wells Fargo stated that Meta's intention to sell excess computing power is a positive sign that underlying AI demand and unit economics remain strong. Wells Fargo noted, "While Meta is moving forward with this plan, we do not believe this means Meta will cut capital expenditures (CapEx), nor do we believe overall computing power demand has decreased." Wells Fargo believes that Neocloud's move further validates the huge opportunities in the AI infrastructure market and highlights the potential for industry consolidation, although Neocloud may face some competition in the future.
Serenity: Meta is not cutting capital expenditures due to "over-construction"; current computing power remains limited.
According to Odaily Odaily, Serenity, the self-proclaimed "white-haired stock guru," posted on the X platform that information regarding Meta cutting capital expenditures due to "over-construction" is largely misleading. Meta only sells computing power when there is excess capacity, and the current situation seems to be the opposite. Hyperscalers like Google reduced their computing power allocation to Meta in March due to resource constraints caused by excessive resource consumption by internal Meta projects. Meta subsequently faced computing power constraints and was forced to sign massive contracts worth over $48 billion with Neoclouds such as CoreWeave and Nebius. Meta only sells computing power when there is excess capacity, especially since its large contracts with Neoclouds are mostly take-or-pay agreements. Serenity expects Meta's guidance for capital expenditure to increase as it builds more independent capacity.
Opinion: Neocloud and memory sectors are experiencing position clearing; pullbacks often present the best buying opportunities.
According to BlockBeats, on July 3rd, renowned analyst degentrading stated that the current market is experiencing a sustained sell-off, with IREN and CIFR leading the decline in the Neocloud sector. Even memory stocks, considered the "ultimate momentum factor," have not been spared, with Micron (MU) falling below the $1000 mark reminiscent of its price action after its last earnings release. Meta (META) has also given back some of its previous gains, as the market has soberly assessed the substance of its plans, dampening previous expectations. Degentrading believes that such position clearing is usually drastic and rapid, and he does not believe he has the ability to accurately time the "absolute bottom." However, he emphasizes that this is precisely why investors should conduct in-depth research themselves. Only in this way can they maintain confidence in holding positions during periods of increased market volatility. Degentrading also cautions that leveraged instruments are not suitable for long-term holding, but only for short-term trading over a few days; otherwise, they will face volatility attrition. He advises investors to ensure they can withstand drawdowns, as position clearing, while brutal, often presents the best opportunities to establish new positions.
Opinion: Meta's sale of computing power may be intended to boost confidence in the company's valuation; we reiterate the investment opportunities in the neocloud sector.
BlockBeats reported on July 2nd that renowned analyst degentrading (@degentradingLSD) commented on the news of "Meta selling computing power." He believes Meta's own computing resources are severely strained. The simplest reason for yesterday's news that "Meta plans to build its own cloud business and sell surplus AI computing power" is that Zuckerberg sees Xai leasing out computing resources and being able to revalue its stock. For Zuckerberg to continue capital expenditures, he must signal to investors that these expenditures will ultimately generate cash returns. Additionally, degentrading cited Serenity's view that the market seems to have forgotten that Meta is buying computing power from neocloud. Stocks like NBIS and CRWV were oversold yesterday and currently offer excellent risk-reward ratios.