Kalshi和Polymarket 2025年合计交易量超440亿美元
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Bernstein: Market consolidation is accelerating; Kalshi and Polymarket may become M&A targets.
According to a Foresight News report citing CoinDesk, Bernstein stated in a Monday report that the rapid consolidation of prediction market technology stacks is increasing the likelihood of a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the sports betting and financial markets sectors. The report states that in the past eight months, almost all major consumer-facing prediction market platforms have shifted towards simultaneously controlling both customer distribution channels and exchange infrastructure. The analyst team (led by Ian Moore) wrote that Kalshi and Polymarket possess exchange technology stacks but lag behind in distribution channels, making them potential acquisition targets or acquirers. The report notes a shift in the economic landscape: companies with their own exchanges are retaining revenue that previously flowed to third-party platforms. For example, Robinhood redirected its highest-volume World Cup contracts to its own Rothera instead of Kalshi, and DraftKings migrated its prediction market trading from CME and its existing infrastructure to its own DKeX at the end of June. Currently, Coinbase's annualized prediction market revenue has reached approximately $100 million, Robinhood has traded over 16 billion event contracts this year, and DraftKings disclosed an annualized consumer prediction market trading volume of nearly $3.4 billion. Analysts believe that Robinhood and Coinbase are currently the strongest competitors, possessing both a large consumer base and fully owned, regulated infrastructure. DraftKings narrowed the gap through its acquisition of Railbird. Kalshi and Polymarket, while possessing exchange technology but lacking comparable consumer-end distribution capabilities, remain reasonable acquisition candidates. The report also noted that despite the rapid growth of the forecasting market industry, it still faces regulatory and legal uncertainties—multiple state betting regulators consider sports event contracts to be unlicensed sports betting, while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over such products, and the dispute may ultimately require a court ruling.
SBI Holdings' $289 million acquisition of Bitbank will create Japan's largest crypto exchage; US senators from both parties urge the CFTC to investigate Polymarket's "deceptive marketing."
According to ChainCatcher and BBX data, Japan's largest financial group completed its most significant crypto acquisition over the weekend, while US senators from both parties launched a new regulatory offensive against prediction market platforms. Key developments include: SBI Holdings, Inc. (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 8473) announced the acquisition of Japanese crypto exchage Bitbank (privately held) for approximately $289 million. Upon completion of the transaction, SBI's crypto business will surpass all competitors, creating Japan's largest crypto exchage. SBI Holdings is one of Japan's largest independent financial services groups, already owning crypto-friendly online bank SBI Shinsei Bank, crypto asset custody institution SBI Digital Asset Holdings, and numerous Bitcoin mining and crypto venture capital investments. Bitbank is one of Japan's largest spot BTC exchanges and holds a formal crypto exchage license from the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA). This acquisition marks a full shift in the approach of traditional Japanese financial institutions towards the crypto space, moving from "strategic testing" to "large-scale acquisition-driven" strategies. Together with the joint stablecoin plan (targeting March 2027) of the three major banks—Mitsubishi UFJ ($MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui ($SMFG), and Mizuho ($MFG)—it constitutes the most concentrated wave of crypto deployments by the Japanese financial industry in 2026. On June 28, US Senators John Curtis (Republican, Utah) and Adam Schiff (Democrat, California) jointly wrote to the CFTC, urging it to launch a formal investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket (privately held), citing a "concerning" investigative report on Polymarket's "deceptive marketing" practices, alleging systemic misrepresentation in user acquisition and risk disclosure. This is the third time this year that Congress has launched a regulatory offensive against prediction market platforms (the House Oversight Committee previously launched an insider trading investigation on May 22); the fact that the two senators are from opposing parties carries significant implications. For Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $HOOD), this investigation creates indirect pressure—Robinhood's prediction market/event contract business (which saw record daily trading volume in June) faces the same regulatory characterization controversy as Polymarket; however, Robinhood's advantage lies in the fact that its CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) license application is in progress, giving it a clearer compliance path than Polymarket.
The CFTC has launched a full investigation into Polymarket, including allegations of wash trading that have impacted the Robinhood event contract ecosystem; Nasdaq has for the first time distributed TotalView market data on-chain via Pyth Network.
According to Mars Finance and BBX data, the prediction market faced a double whammy yesterday, with traditional exchange infrastructure accelerating its on-chain transformation. Key developments include: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $HOOD)'s prediction market/event contract ecosystem suffered a double regulatory blow yesterday: First, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched a full investigation into Polymarket (privately held), covering its social media activities and suspected manipulation; second, a Michigan court ruled to prohibit Kalshi (privately held) from offering sports betting services to Michigan residents. While these two events directly target Polymarket and Kalshi, their strategic importance to Robinhood cannot be ignored—Robinhood, through its subsidiary Robinhood Derivatives LLC, offers event contract products linked to KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC, making it the largest prediction market distribution channel among regulated brokers in the U.S. The CFTC's escalating investigations and enforcement actions against similar platforms will directly impact Robinhood's compliance architecture and product expansion speed; the sector's average daily trading volume in June reached a record high. Nasdaq, Inc. (NASDAQ: $NDAQ) announced yesterday that it has selected Pyth Network (an on-chain price oracle protocol) as its on-chain distribution partner for TotalView (Nasdaq's full market depth data product). This marks the first time Nasdaq has integrated its core institutional-grade market data onto a blockchain network—TotalView provides full-level buy and sell quotes and transaction data for the entire US stock market, historically only available to traditional financial institutions (paid subscriptions). On-chain distribution means that DeFi protocols, decentralized exchanges, and smart contracts can, for the first time, access Nasdaq-level real-time equity market data as an on-chain pricing basis. The Pyth Network token (PYTH) subsequently rose by over 6%, which the market interpreted as a historic convergence of traditional securities market infrastructure and decentralized finance.
Kalshi's trading volume hit a record high of $9.4 billion in June, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market trading.
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the trading volume of the US prediction market platform Kalshi rose to approximately $9.4 billion in June, an increase of nearly 77% from approximately $5.3 billion in May, setting a new record. During the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from approximately $3.5 billion to approximately $4.3 billion. Data shows that the World Cup has become the main catalyst for the growth in prediction market trading. As this World Cup expands to 48 teams for the first time, the number of matches and knockout stage scenarios has increased, driving active trading in single-match contracts. For example, the round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket. However, the rapid increase in trading volume has also further fueled regulatory controversy. Several US states continue to advocate that sports event contracts should be subject to betting regulations, rather than the derivatives market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event-based contracts may fall under the existing regulatory scope of binary options. Analysts believe that the World Cup demonstrated the ability of prediction markets to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports prediction contracts should be regulated as financial derivatives or betting remains a core regulatory issue for the industry.
AI capital rotation, the full implementation of MiCA, and stablecoin competition are the focus of the market this week.
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, discussions in the digital asset industry this week mainly revolved around AI, the EU's Crypto Asset Market Regulation Act (MiCA), stablecoins, and Bitcoin. Regarding AI, many industry insiders believe that current market funds are shifting from digital assets to AI infrastructure construction. In the future, the value of the AI industry will likely be captured more by application layer and infrastructure providers, rather than solely by large model developers. Furthermore, some believe that if the US government acquires a stake in OpenAI, it could further exacerbate the trend of AI industry consolidation. On the regulatory front, with the official end of the MiCA transition period, EU crypto asset service providers will need to obtain full MiCA licenses to continue operating. Industry insiders believe that regulatory compliance will gradually become a significant competitive advantage for European crypto payment and digital asset service providers. Regarding stablecoins, the industry continues to focus on the newly launched OpenUSD (OUSD). Analysts believe that its ecosystem network, involving over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, BlackRock, and BNY, is poised to challenge the existing stablecoin market structure, such as USDC, by leveraging its distribution advantages. However, some argue that OUSD still faces challenges such as liquidity cultivation and governance coordination. Regarding Bitcoin, market opinions are divided on the recent capital operations of Michael Saylor's Strategy. Some analysts believe the company's recent financing arrangements suggest it may still need to sell Bitcoin to meet future funding needs; others believe this move effectively alleviates market concerns about liquidity and default risk, constituting a proactive risk management measure.
Data: June forecast market trading volume surged, with Kalshi and Polymarket combined soaring 75% to $44.8 billion.
According to Mars Finance, as reported by The Block, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US combined traded $44.8 billion in June, a 75% increase from $25.66 billion in May. Kalshi performed best, with a June trading volume of $31.5 billion, an 87.4% increase month-over-month; Polymarket's main platform traded $10.26 billion, a 45% increase; and Polymarket US traded $3.04 billion. The report indicates that this surge in trading volume is primarily due to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which opened on June 11th. Kalshi's World Cup champion prediction market has already attracted over $832 million in bets.