Polymarket上WTI原油7月突破95美元/桶概率升至48%，24小时上涨20%
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Polymarket's probability that "WTI crude oil will reach $100 in May 2026" has fallen to 1%, down 11% in the last 24 hours.
According to Odaily Seer, the probability of WTI crude oil reaching $100 in May 2026 on Polymarket has fallen to 1%, a 24-hour drop of 11%. The expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz has spread. Following news that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, international oil prices quickly declined. Brent crude oil prices fell to around $91 per barrel, a cumulative drop of over 17% this month, potentially marking the largest monthly decline since 2020. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices hovered around $87 per barrel. However, uncertainties remain regarding the details of the agreement, as Trump has not yet approved the relevant terms. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket's probability that "WTI crude oil will fall to $85 in May 2026" has risen to 62%, a 32% increase in the last 24 hours.
According to Odaily Seer, a channel monitoring the market, the probability of WTI crude oil falling to $85 in May 2026 has risen to 62% on Polymarket, a 32% increase in the past 24 hours. According to a report on the 27th by the Balance News Agency, affiliated with the Iranian Ministry of Justice, a preliminary informal document concerning the framework of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States has been disclosed, covering issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, regional military deployments, and future agreement arrangements. According to the document, the United States pledged to lift the "maritime blockade" against Iran and withdraw some of its military forces deployed in the region surrounding Iran. In exchange, Iran will gradually restore the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-escalation levels within a month, excluding military vessels. The management of vessel passage and route arrangements will be coordinated jointly by Iran and Oman. The document indicates that if Iran and the United States can reach a final agreement within 60 days, the relevant content may be confirmed in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution. The report states that Iran emphasized that it will not take any concrete action before completing "verifiable" verification. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket has a new post titled "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?"
According to PPP forecasting market monitoring, Polymarket has added a new question: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?", with a current probability of 33%. The settlement rules are as follows: If the US federal government passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other measures that substantially restrict public access to a major AI model by the end of 2026, the market result will be "Yes". Otherwise, the market result will be "No". A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government that is equivalent to a complete ban on public access to an AI model within the US. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the true purpose or nominal goal of the action, if an action actually prevents the public from accessing the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments—it qualifies as long as the general public cannot access the model through regular channels within the US. Simply excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals that fall under public access rights and are not caused by any formal action by the US government are not eligible. "Mainstream AI models" refer to flagship, general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundational models developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated and used only for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion. This action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one significant AI model is consequently banned from public access within the United States. Temporarily banning public access to a model qualifies as this action. However, if an action has been implemented or a relevant resolution has been issued, but the model remains publicly accessible until the resolution takes effect, then this action does not qualify as this action. Information for this market comes from official information and announcements from the US government and relevant AI companies. However, consensus may also be formed by referring to reliable reports. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
On Polymarket, the probability of "BLG achieving a 'Golden Road' (Grand Slam)" has risen to 21%, an 8% increase in the last 24 hours.
According to PPP's market prediction tool, the League of Legends MSI (Mid-Season Invitational) World Championship has officially begun. The probability of BLG achieving a "Golden Road (Grand Slam)" event on Polymarket is currently reported at 21%, up 8% in the last 24 hours. In today's MSI match, BLG defeated LCK team T1 3-2, advancing to the upper bracket of the MSI playoffs. Previously, BLG won the 2026 League of Legends Global Vanguard. The event is judged as "yes" if BLG completes the "Golden Road" this year. This means BLG must win all major League of Legends esports events by 2026. In other words, the team's players need to win all regional tournaments and participate in all three major international tournaments: the Vanguard, MSI, and Worlds. This information will likely come from official League of Legends esports websites, but reliable reports such as those on Liquipedia can also be consulted. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
On Polymarket, the probability of "LeBron James joining the Philadelphia 76ers" has surged to 18%, compared to just 0.3% two days ago.
According to PPP's prediction market tool, in the Polymarket's multi-option prediction event of "Which team will LeBron James play for next season?", the probability of him joining the Philadelphia 76ers has surged to 18%, compared to only 0.3% two days ago. The probability of him joining the Golden State Warriors has now fallen to 18%, a 16% drop in 24 hours; the probability of him joining the Cleveland Cavaliers is 41%, a 1% increase in 24 hours. After completing the signing of Ben Simmons and the trade for Jaylen Brown, the Philadelphia 76ers have now met LeBron James's requirements for his next team. ESPN's Brian Windhorst publicly interpreted this as James explicitly requiring recruiting teams to make substantial improvements before choosing a new team. If James ultimately joins, the Philadelphia 76ers will be able to field a starting five of Maxi, Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, James, and Embiid next season. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket's probability that "GPT-5.6 will open to the public on July 7th" has risen to 64%, a 26% increase in 24 hours.
According to PPP prediction market monitoring tools, the probability that "GPT-5.6 will be open to the public on July 7th" on Polymarket has risen to 64%, a 26% increase in 24 hours. The rules state that GPT-5.6 refers to models explicitly named "GPT-5.6" or officially recognized as direct successors to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), all of which meet the settlement criteria. Task-specific models such as GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and o-series inference models are all included in this market; however, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not included. Furthermore, eligible models must have been made publicly available, including public beta versions or open waiting lists; closed beta or models limited to private access are not eligible. The final settlement will be based primarily on OpenAI's official announcements and publicly available information on its website, combined with verification through mainstream media reports. On June 27th, OpenAI launched its next-generation GPT-5.6 series models, currently available for limited preview to a select group of partners. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.