ZachXBT：Telegram仍允许展示诈骗广告，呼吁放开用户关闭功能
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ZachXBT: The X platform's algorithm faces a "traffic dilemma" when dealing with cryptocurrency content.
According to Odaily Odaily, ZachXBT stated in an article on the X platform that he has recently been publishing more analytical content on his Telegram channel rather than on the X platform. In June, his content distribution was "9 reports on Telegram, compared to only 1 survey on the X platform." ZachXBT indicated that several technical bugs occurred during the migration from the traditional private messaging system to XChat, and the reliability of the X platform's search function declined, affecting information retrieval efficiency. ZachXBT stated that the X platform's algorithm presents a "traffic dilemma" for cryptocurrency content, making it easier for content to be confined to the crypto vertical community and reducing its ability to reach a wider audience. They added that they may further explore other content distribution platforms in the future and that the content posted will be deleted in one hour.
Oil prices wiped out all war premiums in 11 days, with Brent crude falling below pre-war levels, but low inventories may trigger a rebound.
According to Mars Finance, on June 26, international oil prices quickly fell back to pre-conflict levels, erasing all gains made during the conflict in just 11 days, a move that surprised the market. On Thursday, Brent crude oil briefly dipped to $72.06, breaking below the settlement price of $72.48 on the last trading day before the conflict, representing a cumulative drop of over 39% from the March high of $118.35; WTI crude oil closed at $71.92, down approximately 36% from its high. This decline was far faster than expected. Previously, the industry generally judged that clearing mines in the Strait would take time and restoring production capacity in the Gulf would take several months, but the actual progress has been significantly faster. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the market rebalanced through a "significantly different combination of demand loss and inventory withdrawal," a stark contrast to initial assumptions. However, a rapid easing may not be stable. S&P Global data shows that 78 oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, a new high since the conflict, but still only 57% of pre-war levels, and a large portion of these were vessels that had been stranded and were now leaving port. The head of commodity strategy at TD Securities warned that the market may have overestimated the speed of supply and inventory recovery. Inventory pressure has become a key variable. U.S. Cushing inventories fell to 19 million barrels last week, about 1 million barrels below the level needed to maintain system stability; TD Securities predicts that the world may need to utilize an additional 600 million barrels of inventory by October, and once inventories fall below a key threshold, oil prices could rebound rapidly. Looking ahead, analysts at Mizuho Securities believe the market is already "oversold" and expect oil prices to potentially rise to the $80 range in the coming weeks. Full recovery of production in countries like Iraq and Kuwait is expected to occur this fall, at which time the supply and demand dynamics may change again.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 51 consecutive days, setting a new record for the longest consecutive negative trend.
According to Odaily data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative premium territory for 51 consecutive days (from May 19th to present), with the latest value at -0.0923%. Previously, the index was in negative premium territory for 40 consecutive days from January 16th to February 24th this year, setting a record for the longest consecutive negative period since the index's inception, exceeding the approximately 30 consecutive days of negative premium during the "10/11 crash". Historical data shows that prolonged negative premiums often accompany the exit of US institutional funds, suggesting potential short-term downward pressure.
EIA: Most crude oil production will recover to pre-war levels by the end of this year.
Odaily Odaily reports that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, noting that on June 18, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz. With the signing of the agreement and increased traffic through the strait, we have raised our forecast for global oil production for the remainder of this year. We now expect most crude oil production to recover to near pre-conflict levels by the end of this year, and most of the shut-down crude oil production to come online in the first quarter of 2027. (Jinshi)
McKinsey research: 76% of employees use AI to assist in their work; generative AI lowers the demand for entry-level positions.
According to a McKinsey study published on July 7th by Odaily Odaily, only 30% of employees used AI to assist in their work in 2023, but this figure is projected to rise to 76% by 2025. The "McKinsey 2025 New Era of Work Survey" shows that 51% of organizations reported that generative AI has reduced their demand for entry-level positions. Between 2023 and 2025, the turnover intention of employees with less than one year of service decreased from 37% to 32%, approaching the 30% level of employees with more than three years of service. The survey shows that AI creators and heavy AI users have the highest sense of job belonging, but they are 7% more likely to leave within the next 3 to 6 months than light AI users and 10% more likely than employees who do not use AI. The survey indicates that the main reasons employees are willing to stay include valuable work, flexible work location, career development and promotion opportunities, trust and support from colleagues, and decent compensation with sufficient recognition.
Analysis: Gold prices were boosted by non-farm payroll data and recent remarks by Warsh.
Gold prices were boosted by weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, rising 2% after a slight dip ahead of the report. Data from the US Odaily of Labor Statistics showed that only 57,000 non-farm jobs were added in June, below analysts' forecasts of 115,000. This unexpected data drove up stock and commodity prices, easing market concerns about future interest rate hikes. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh also mitigated market anxieties about interest rates. Silver, the most actively traded commodity, also rose, gaining 4%. (Golden Ten)