分析师：长鑫上市首日暴涨，但仍难改变全球DRAM竞争格局
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TrendForce: DRAM shortages spread to DDR2; older memory prices expected to continue rising in Q3.
According to a report by Mars Finance on June 23, TrendForce, a high-tech industry research firm, stated in a study released on June 22 that the continued tightening of mature process DRAM supply is forcing consumer DRAM buyers to turn to earlier-generation memory products to secure more supply quotas. This change is driving up demand for traditional DRAM such as DDR2 and DDR3, and continuing the upward trend in related product prices. The firm predicts that DDR2 contract prices will rise by approximately 55% to 60% in the second quarter of 2026, and will further increase by 35% to 40% in the third quarter. This means that after a strong increase in the first quarter, the pressure on DDR2 prices has not eased, but has instead continued to intensify due to the widening supply-demand gap. The core reason on the supply side comes from the reallocation of advanced process capacity. TrendForce points out that the three major DRAM manufacturers are still prioritizing capacity for HBM and server DRAM to meet the demand brought about by AI infrastructure construction. Correspondingly, the wafer allocation for DDR4 and other mature process products has been compressed, forcing consumer DRAM customers to turn to Taiwanese suppliers for support. With limited supply, Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers such as Nanya Technology and Winbond Electronics have gained stronger bargaining power. TrendForce indicates that as demand significantly exceeds the bit capacity that Taiwanese manufacturers can provide, suppliers are strategically reducing production of low-margin products and shifting capacity to higher-value products to improve their profit structure. Changes are also occurring on the demand side. With shortages of consumer-grade DRAM and rising contract prices, some OEMs and ODMs have begun to downgrade memory specifications to control overall system costs. Some designs originally using DDR4 have been converted to DDR3, and some DDR3 products have been further converted to DDR2. Customers are attempting to secure relatively stable supply by offering lower capacity configurations or older generation products. This has caused the DRAM shortage pressure to propagate down the technology generation. The supply shortage, which was originally concentrated in HBM, server DRAM, and DDR4, has begun to spread to traditional products such as DDR3 and DDR2, highlighting the crowding-out effect of AI demand on the entire memory supply chain. TrendForce states that major suppliers of DDR2 include Winbond Electronics and Crystal Semiconductor. However, Winbond is gradually reducing DDR2 production and shifting related capacity to products with relatively higher gross margins, such as DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4, which will further exacerbate the DDR2 supply shortage. In contrast, ChipMOS plans to expand DDR2 production as much as possible within Powerchip Semiconductor's existing wafer quota, concentrating resources to improve the profitability of this product line and partially filling the supply gap left by Winbond's withdrawal from DDR2. This round of price increases shows that the memory demand brought about by AI is no longer only affecting high-end HBM and server DRAM. As advanced production capacity is redirected, mature processes and older memory products are also beginning to become pressure points for supply and demand imbalances. For consumer electronics, industrial control, and some long-lifecycle equipment that still rely on DDR2 and DDR3, cost pressures may continue to rise in the second half of the year.
Research indicates that consumer-grade LPDDR5X prices surged 89% in Q2, with the squeeze effect of AI memory spreading to the mobile phone and PC markets.
According to Mars Finance, on June 23, market research firm SigmaIntell stated on June 22 that consumer storage product prices generally rose in the second quarter of this year due to an imbalance between supply and demand for memory. The price increases were particularly pronounced for low-power DRAM products, with LPDDR4X 4GB prices rising 75% quarter-on-quarter and LPDDR5X 12GB prices rising 89% quarter-on-quarter. This round of price increases is driven by the adoption of LPDDR memory in next-generation server GPU platforms. As AI computing platforms such as NVIDIA Vera Rubin adopt related low-power memory, supply competition has intensified, leading storage manufacturers to extend price increases to consumer-grade memory used in smartphones and PCs. SigmaIntell stated that some customers have already accepted the price increases, and the changes have been reflected in market prices. Supply-side pressure stems from capacity reallocation. SigmaIntell indicated that in the second quarter, storage manufacturers prioritized high-value-added products such as HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs, leading to a tightening of consumer-grade memory supply. Due to rising cost pressures, some smartphone and PC brands are adjusting their memory orders. This also means that the rate of increase in DRAM prices may slow down in the second half of the year. Compared to mid-to-high-end products, the demand for memory used in low-end terminals is expected to cool down more significantly. Currently, semiconductor wafer resources are continuing to concentrate on high-bandwidth memory (HBM), relatively compressing consumer-grade DRAM capacity. HBM maintains relatively stable prices through annual customer contracts, but the supply-demand imbalance remains severe. General-purpose server DRAM is also experiencing an industry-wide price increase trend, with cloud vendors continuously replenishing DRAM inventory, keeping channel inventory at a low level of about two to three weeks. The consumer electronics market is therefore under pressure. The expansion of high-value-added memory products, limited additional capacity construction, and low inventory levels have combined to perpetuate the shortage of consumer-grade DRAM. The NAND market also continues to rise. SigmaIntell stated that SSD prices rose by about 50% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of this year. Demand for enterprise-grade NAND products remains strong, and price fluctuations have not weakened purchasing intentions. The expansion of AI clusters and AI agent servers is driving demand for high-performance, high-capacity storage devices. Price pressure is also spreading to mobile and PC NAND. UFS prices surged by up to 100% due to expanding demand for enterprise-grade SSDs squeezing supply, while reduced supply of low-capacity eMMC and other low-end NAND also tightened the supply and demand for consumer-grade NAND. Overall, the expansion of AI infrastructure is altering the price transmission path in the storage industry. Previously, shortages were primarily concentrated in HBM and server DRAM, but are now being transmitted to the mobile phone, PC, and consumer storage markets through capacity allocation and wafer resource constraints. For end-user brands, rising memory and flash memory costs may become a significant variable for profit margins and product pricing in the second half of the year.
Critini analyst: A full-blown collapse in the storage market is unlikely; HBM demand will absorb DDR capacity.
According to Mars Finance, on June 25th, Jukan, an analyst at Critini Research, stated that assuming an increase in DDR memory supply in the future, DDR prices will face downward pressure. Manufacturers can hedge by shifting some DDR production capacity to HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) capacity, thereby avoiding a significant collapse in the overall memory market prices. In other words, even if DDR5 prices eventually "return to normal" and fall back to previous levels—although I personally believe that current DDR prices may have already become the new normal—this does not mean that the entire memory chip market will collapse. This is because the huge demand generated by HBM will continue to absorb the capacity originally used for producing general-purpose DRAM, thus providing downward support for memory prices.
Samsung's HBM4E yield has exceeded 70%, and its next-generation DRAM process, D1d, aims to receive production readiness approval in November.
According to Mars Finance, on July 1st, following the world's first mass production of HBM4 (6th generation), Samsung Electronics is making progress in the development of HBM4E (7th generation) and next-generation DRAM. Song Jae-hyuk, CTO of Samsung Electronics' DS division and head of its Semiconductor Research Institute, stated at an internal business status briefing on June 30th that the HBM4E reliability testing yield has improved to over 70%. The industry generally considers a yield exceeding 80% to be a stable, "mature yield" stage; considering that HBM4E is still in the reliability testing phase, a yield above 70% is considered an indicator that development is entering a stable range. Samsung Electronics began mass production and shipping of HBM4 in February of this year, and on May 29th, it publicly released detailed technical specifications for its 12-layer HBM4E product, shipping samples to major customers. HBM4 will be used in Nvidia's Vera Rubin AI accelerator, to be launched in the second half of the year, while HBM4E is expected to be used in Nvidia's next-generation AI accelerator, Vera Rubin Ultra, to be launched next year. Samsung's next-generation DRAM process development is also progressing smoothly. Song Jae-hyuk believes that the D1d process technology has a competitive advantage over its rivals and is being developed with the goal of obtaining production readiness approval in November. D1d is Samsung's core DRAM process planned for use starting with the next-generation HBM5 (8th generation). If it progresses as planned, it will have a positive impact on the competitiveness of next-generation DRAM and subsequent HBM5 products. (Fnnews)
Samsung Electronics has filed a new patent for HBM, addressing the reliability challenges of high-stack memory.
According to a report by Mars Finance on June 30th, Citrini researcher Jukan revealed that Samsung Electronics has filed a new HBM patent, addressing the reliability challenges of high-stack (12+ layers) memory by improving the top-level dummy die structure. The core of the patent is a three-step, convex curved surface design for the dummy die's sides, employing a deep-groove sawing process to reduce warping, cracks, and delamination, while optimizing thermal management and bonding interface cleanliness. This innovation, targeting products with 16+ layers such as HBM5, can significantly improve yield and long-term stability, helping Samsung enhance its competitiveness in the AI high-bandwidth memory market.
Bernstein: Conventional DRAM prices may continue to rise in 2027, putting pressure on HBM to catch up in profitability.
According to Mars Finance, on June 22nd, Bernstein analysts stated in a report that after a roughly 4.5-fold increase from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, conventional DRAM prices may continue to rise in 2027. Therefore, the current average selling price per bit for conventional DRAM is already comparable to, or even higher than, high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Bernstein points out that considering higher bit density and yield, the revenue per wafer capacity for conventional DRAM this year could be twice that of HBM, enjoying significantly higher profit margins. The agency estimates that HBM prices would need to increase by approximately three times to catch up with conventional DRAM in terms of revenue per wafer capacity. However, memory chip manufacturers are unlikely to aggressively increase HBM prices, as they understand that excessively high HBM costs could hinder the development of the entire artificial intelligence ecosystem and ultimately suppress memory demand.