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Oil prices wiped out all war premiums in 11 days, with Brent crude falling below pre-war levels, but low inventories may trigger a rebound.

According to Mars Finance, on June 26, international oil prices quickly fell back to pre-conflict levels, erasing all gains made during the conflict in just 11 days, a move that surprised the market. On Thursday, Brent crude oil briefly dipped to $72.06, breaking below the settlement price of $72.48 on the last trading day before the conflict, representing a cumulative drop of over 39% from the March high of $118.35; WTI crude oil closed at $71.92, down approximately 36% from its high. This decline was far faster than expected. Previously, the industry generally judged that clearing mines in the Strait would take time and restoring production capacity in the Gulf would take several months, but the actual progress has been significantly faster. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the market rebalanced through a "significantly different combination of demand loss and inventory withdrawal," a stark contrast to initial assumptions. However, a rapid easing may not be stable. S&P Global data shows that 78 oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, a new high since the conflict, but still only 57% of pre-war levels, and a large portion of these were vessels that had been stranded and were now leaving port. The head of commodity strategy at TD Securities warned that the market may have overestimated the speed of supply and inventory recovery. Inventory pressure has become a key variable. U.S. Cushing inventories fell to 19 million barrels last week, about 1 million barrels below the level needed to maintain system stability; TD Securities predicts that the world may need to utilize an additional 600 million barrels of inventory by October, and once inventories fall below a key threshold, oil prices could rebound rapidly. Looking ahead, analysts at Mizuho Securities believe the market is already "oversold" and expect oil prices to potentially rise to the $80 range in the coming weeks. Full recovery of production in countries like Iraq and Kuwait is expected to occur this fall, at which time the supply and demand dynamics may change again.