Kalshi、Polymarket获暂停明尼苏达州预测市场禁令
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The CFTC has launched a full investigation into Polymarket, including allegations of wash trading that have impacted the Robinhood event contract ecosystem; Nasdaq has for the first time distributed TotalView market data on-chain via Pyth Network.
According to Mars Finance and BBX data, the prediction market faced a double whammy yesterday, with traditional exchange infrastructure accelerating its on-chain transformation. Key developments include: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $HOOD)'s prediction market/event contract ecosystem suffered a double regulatory blow yesterday: First, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched a full investigation into Polymarket (privately held), covering its social media activities and suspected manipulation; second, a Michigan court ruled to prohibit Kalshi (privately held) from offering sports betting services to Michigan residents. While these two events directly target Polymarket and Kalshi, their strategic importance to Robinhood cannot be ignored—Robinhood, through its subsidiary Robinhood Derivatives LLC, offers event contract products linked to KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC, making it the largest prediction market distribution channel among regulated brokers in the U.S. The CFTC's escalating investigations and enforcement actions against similar platforms will directly impact Robinhood's compliance architecture and product expansion speed; the sector's average daily trading volume in June reached a record high. Nasdaq, Inc. (NASDAQ: $NDAQ) announced yesterday that it has selected Pyth Network (an on-chain price oracle protocol) as its on-chain distribution partner for TotalView (Nasdaq's full market depth data product). This marks the first time Nasdaq has integrated its core institutional-grade market data onto a blockchain network—TotalView provides full-level buy and sell quotes and transaction data for the entire US stock market, historically only available to traditional financial institutions (paid subscriptions). On-chain distribution means that DeFi protocols, decentralized exchanges, and smart contracts can, for the first time, access Nasdaq-level real-time equity market data as an on-chain pricing basis. The Pyth Network token (PYTH) subsequently rose by over 6%, which the market interpreted as a historic convergence of traditional securities market infrastructure and decentralized finance.
Bernstein: Market consolidation is accelerating; Kalshi and Polymarket may become M&A targets.
According to a Foresight News report citing CoinDesk, Bernstein stated in a Monday report that the rapid consolidation of prediction market technology stacks is increasing the likelihood of a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the sports betting and financial markets sectors. The report states that in the past eight months, almost all major consumer-facing prediction market platforms have shifted towards simultaneously controlling both customer distribution channels and exchange infrastructure. The analyst team (led by Ian Moore) wrote that Kalshi and Polymarket possess exchange technology stacks but lag behind in distribution channels, making them potential acquisition targets or acquirers. The report notes a shift in the economic landscape: companies with their own exchanges are retaining revenue that previously flowed to third-party platforms. For example, Robinhood redirected its highest-volume World Cup contracts to its own Rothera instead of Kalshi, and DraftKings migrated its prediction market trading from CME and its existing infrastructure to its own DKeX at the end of June. Currently, Coinbase's annualized prediction market revenue has reached approximately $100 million, Robinhood has traded over 16 billion event contracts this year, and DraftKings disclosed an annualized consumer prediction market trading volume of nearly $3.4 billion. Analysts believe that Robinhood and Coinbase are currently the strongest competitors, possessing both a large consumer base and fully owned, regulated infrastructure. DraftKings narrowed the gap through its acquisition of Railbird. Kalshi and Polymarket, while possessing exchange technology but lacking comparable consumer-end distribution capabilities, remain reasonable acquisition candidates. The report also noted that despite the rapid growth of the forecasting market industry, it still faces regulatory and legal uncertainties—multiple state betting regulators consider sports event contracts to be unlicensed sports betting, while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over such products, and the dispute may ultimately require a court ruling.
Zuckerberg: Asks Meta to explore partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi
According to Odaily Odaily, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged his team to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta is developing a similar prediction market application called Arena. Executives say Arena is currently in internal testing and may not be released in the future. The app will rely on a points system similar to video games, rather than accepting real-money bets. Meta aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users to the app and plans to eventually integrate some of Arena's features into Facebook and Messenger. (Reuters)
The World Cup fuels a boom in prediction markets: Polymarket trading surges, Kalshi open interest hits a new high.
PANews reported on June 24th that, according to The Block, prediction market platform Polymarket saw its "Soccer" betting volume exceed $2 billion in the first 10 days after the start of the World Cup, an increase of approximately 300% compared to the previous 10 days. The daily average volume for this category rose from $53 million to approximately $220 million. During the same period, compliant prediction platform Kalshi's aggregated open interest surpassed $1.16 billion for the first time last week, representing a year-to-date increase of approximately 350%. The report points out that Polymarket's overall open interest remained relatively stable during the World Cup, while Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC and supporting direct USD deposits, is attracting more US institutions and high-net-worth individuals to hold long-term positions. Its positioning directly competes with compliant sports betting platforms such as DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kalshi CEO: When it comes to competitors, the first thing that comes to mind isn't Polymarket, but platforms like CME and Robinhood.
According to Odaily Odaily, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour stated in an interview with FOX: "To be honest, when I think about competitors, I don't think about Polymarket the most, but rather other platforms. We are surrounded by a group of competitors." In subsequent interviews, Tarek primarily mentioned CME and Robinhood. CME assisted gambling giant FanDuel in launching its own prediction market product, while Robinhood has launched its own prediction market, Rothera. Tarek also mentioned DraftKings, Novig, and Coinbase.
Kentucky has sued prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket for operating unlicensed and illegal sports betting.
PANews reported on June 18 that, according to CoinDesk, Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman has sued Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of providing illegal sports betting without a state gambling license. This move puts the Republican-leaning state, which is expected to vote for Trump 64% of the time in 2024, at odds with Trump's position. Trump has previously stated that prediction market regulation should fall under the jurisdiction of the federal CFTC and has publicly supported CFTC Chairman Mike Selig in upholding the agency's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. Kentucky also alleges that these companies and their partners (Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull) failed to provide gambling-related assistance resources as required by local law. The CFTC has previously sued eight states to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.