Strategy难以重启BTC增持？STRC美股盘前再次下行
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Michael Saylor: If Bitcoin's long-term price increase exceeds 3.3%, BTC capital gains could fund STRC dividends indefinitely.
According to ChainCatcher, Bitcoin Treasuries.NET posted on the X platform that Strategy's Michael Saylor stated that if Bitcoin's long-term price increase exceeds 3.3%, BTC capital gains can fund STRC dividends indefinitely. Even if BTC's annual price increase is 0%, Strategy will still have dividend funds for 31 years.
Strive CRO: Strategy's sale of 3,500 Bitcoins helps buy more BTC.
Odaily Odaily News | _2024111120230_ | An article published on the X platform states that Strive's CRO, PunterJeff Walton (@PunterJeff), explained that Strategy's recent sale of 3,500 Bitcoins is actually positive and will help it buy more BTC. He stated that this will provide more support for STRC and its future growth potential, enabling it to buy more BTC, and MSTR shareholders should take a positive view of this.
VanEck executive: Strategy's $135 million Bitcoin sale last week did not use up its BTC Monetization Program quota.
According to ChainCatcher, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, stated on the X platform that, based on Strategy's latest 8-K filing, Strategy's $135 million Bitcoin sale last week did not utilize the $1.25 billion BTC Monetization Program quota. This is because the program only restricts sales used to replenish cash reserves; sales directly used to pay dividends are not included in this limit. Sigel points out that this means Strategy's actual Bitcoin sales capacity exceeds the commonly understood $1.25 billion.
Bloomberg: Quantum computing puts approximately 34% of the existing Bitcoin supply at risk of being hacked.
PANews reported on July 7th, citing Bloomberg, that quantum computing is considered a new threat that could potentially crack the cryptographic algorithms of crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Quantum computers are expected to far surpass traditional computers in decrypting complex mathematical problems, and theoretically, could deduce private keys from public keys, thereby stealing on-chain assets. Wallets with early address formats and those that reuse addresses are at the highest risk. Galaxy Digital estimates that approximately 34% of circulating Bitcoin, worth about $470 billion, may become targets for future quantum attacks. Coinbase has established an advisory committee, and Strategy, where Michael Saylor works, has also launched a related risk project.
Analysis: Strategy sold off its first large-scale BTC transaction in five years, but the market did not show excessive panic.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, marking the company's largest Bitcoin sale in history. However, the market did not experience a significant drop, with the BTC price remaining around $63,000. This is Strategy's first large-scale net sale since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: 1,363 BTC were sold between June 29th and 30th at an average price of approximately $59,256, generating $80.8 million; 2,225 BTC were sold between July 1st and 5th at an average price of approximately $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total of approximately $216 million. This sale is primarily intended to pay preferred stock obligations and replenish dollar reserves, and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. The company currently holds approximately 843,775 BTC and approximately $2.55 billion in dollar reserves. This sale represents only about 0.4% of its holdings, indicating more liquidity management than a signal of divestment. From the derivatives market perspective, the news of Strategy's sale led to a significant cooling of sentiment in the Bitcoin futures market. The composite market index fell from the bullish zone of around 80 on July 6th to 32.6, entering the bearish zone, and at one point approached 20, indicating that leveraged funds began to shift towards a defensive stance. However, the Bitcoin price reacted only moderately, currently remaining above its 30-day fair value. The market tends to view this sale as a passive liquidity operation rather than a systematic exit from Bitcoin by Strategy. The market is currently in a "neutral to cautious" state, with relatively stable price performance, but derivatives positions have clearly weakened. If the overall market index rises back above 55, it may indicate a recovery in market risk appetite; if it remains below 45 for an extended period, it could further drag BTC down below its fair value.
Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.