Tom Lee：加密货币市场已经「触底」
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Tom Lee: US stocks are expected to strengthen in July, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 8,000 points this year.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, Ethereum's largest financial institution, stated in an interview with CNBC that he expects US stocks to perform stronger in July because market valuations are more reasonable than before, and investor sentiment is not overly bullish. July marks the start of the second-quarter earnings season, and first-quarter corporate earnings significantly exceeded expectations. Currently, the market's price-to-earnings ratio is about 1.1 percentage points lower than in January, and he expects second-quarter earnings to again exceed expectations, further lowering market valuations and leaving room for price-to-earnings ratio expansion. Therefore, he believes July will be a stronger month for stocks. Regarding whether the S&P 500 can reach 8000 points this year, Tom Lee stated that this goal is achievable. He stated that 8000 points roughly corresponds to $400 in earnings per share in 2026, or a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of approximately 20. He believes this earnings forecast is low, and the P/E ratio could reach 22 or higher, implying an upside potential of 8400 to 8800 points by the end of the year. However, Tom Lee also indicated that the market may experience a correction that "feels like a bear market" between now and the end of the year, likely between August and October, rather than in July. Many fund managers have underperformed their benchmarks this year; currently, only 23% of fund managers have outperformed the broad-based growth stock index, the lowest level in nearly five years. Therefore, there may be significant buying demand in July. Tom Lee added that while the decline from February to April this year was only about 7%, it already gave a bear market-like feeling; later in the year, factors such as the Fed's new framework and the gradual unlocking of SpaceX shares may test the market.
Tom Lee: The rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate indicates that investors expect improved visibility of crypto use cases.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, the largest Ethereum treasury, wrote that although there is still widespread skepticism about ETH in the market, the rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate shows that investors are expecting improved visibility of cryptocurrency "use cases," which is a good thing for the market.
Tom Lee: The pullback following SpaceX's unlocking presents a good buying opportunity; chasing the price higher in the short term is still not recommended.
According to BlockBeats, in a recent interview on July 3rd, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated that he would not set a specific price target for SpaceX because its growth is primarily focused on the future. "Setting a target now is essentially discounting the growth of the next 20 years to the present, which is almost pure speculation." Tom Lee specifically mentioned the upcoming share unlocking, which may create selling pressure from early investors hedging their positions. However, this selling pressure "will actually become a good buying opportunity." Tom Lee believes that chasing SpaceX at high prices in the short term is not advisable; it is appropriate to use the pullback caused by the unlocking to build a position. SpaceX's first major unlocking window is expected after the Q2 earnings report, between the end of July and mid-August. It will allow eligible insiders/early investors to sell up to 20% of their shares; an additional 10% will be unlocked if the share price consistently exceeds the IPO price by 30% (approximately $175 or more). Following this, there will be multiple small unlocks, such as approximately 7% around August 21st and September 10th, and phased releases at 70/90/105/120/135 days; approximately 28% will be released after the Q3 financial report, and finally, the majority of the remaining shares will be fully unlocked after the 180-day lock-up period ends. Shares held by Musk and other core shareholders have a longer lock-up period, approximately 366 days until June 2027. Overall, August and September will be a period of concentrated unlocking pressure for SpaceX.
Tom Lee: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets, and macroeconomic headwinds are suppressing BTC and ETH.
According to BlockBeats, on June 30th, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, Ethereum's largest financial institution, stated that cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets, and several macroeconomic headwinds are currently putting pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum. These headwinds include market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act, AI FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), and the impact of private lending on cash flows. However, he also pointed out that positive factors for the crypto market remain, including tokenization being a major trend, cryptocurrencies being downstream of AI, and the increasing digitalization and software-based nature of money. He added that current market sentiment is extremely poor and may be approaching a "painful peak."
Tom Lee: Investors overreacted to the Fed meeting; the meeting was actually quite dovish.
According to Mars Finance, on June 20th, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, Ethereum's largest financial institution, stated in an interview with CNBC that investors overreacted to the Federal Reserve meeting. He noted that the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, has a different communication style and plans to monitor data in a more modern way. The market interpreted the removal of forward guidance and changes to the dot plot as a hawkish shift, but Lee believes it was more of a statement from Warsh indicating a commitment to using modern and real-time alternative data to understand inflation, without a clear definitive judgment at present. Lee stated that this is actually a market-friendly view, and investors need to understand that if the data changes, the dot plot will also change quickly. Therefore, he believes the meeting was generally quite dovish. Regarding the future trend of the S&P 500, Fundstrat still believes that market conditions will suddenly change later this year, and it will feel very much like a bear market. However, he also stated that he doesn't want to directly predict a market top at this time, as the current stock market environment remains favorable. He mentioned that the SpaceX IPO was very successful, and related companies continue to receive positive news. Tom Lee believes the real challenges may emerge later this year due to factors including the Federal Reserve's policy framework overhaul, SpaceX's relatively small number of currently outstanding shares that will be unlocked in phases this year, and the potential liquidity diversion caused by the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs. Furthermore, disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger supply chain shortages. A fourth catalyst could be the depletion of speculative funds, but this condition is not yet present as investors have become overly bullish.
Tom Lee: ETH/BTC exchange rate will strengthen in the second half of 2026; Ethereum's monetary narrative is gaining traction.
According to Mars Finance, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, Ethereum's largest financial institution, stated that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has ample reason to strengthen in the second half of 2026. The core logic is that ETH's narrative as a currency is gaining market attention. Lee pointed to three catalysts: the continued growth of stablecoins, the asset tokenization wave, and the increase in new forks and projects within the Ethereum ecosystem. These factors are all strengthening ETH's value storage attributes and driving its performance relative to BTC. Lee explicitly predicts that the ETH/BTC exchange rate will continue to rise throughout 2026, emphasizing that this is a key indicator worth continuous monitoring. Lee believes that macroeconomic factors also support the ETH/BTC exchange rate: falling oil prices alleviate inflationary pressures, cryptocurrencies remain downstream beneficiaries of the AI narrative, and the progress of the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts maintains a window of regulatory advantage.