Serenity：AI硬件板块回调主要源于短期去杠杆，长期需求逻辑未变
Related
Serenity: High-power cylindrical battery/BBU cells may face supply shortages, potentially benefiting companies like Samsung SDI and Panasonic Energy.
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, Serenity published an article stating that there appears to be a shortage of high-power cylindrical battery/BBU cells, posing a potential bottleneck. Samsung SDI supplies cells to Simplo, which then assembles them into BBUs for companies like Meta and Amazon. With increasing demand from data centers, Samsung SDI's cylindrical battery production has also risen significantly. Citing industry sources, Serenity claims that Panasonic and Samsung SDI are facing a shortage of BBU cells. Serenity believes the main beneficiaries may include Samsung SDI, Panasonic Energy, Murata Manufacturing, and LG Energy Solution. Samsung SDI and Panasonic Energy are the most direct beneficiaries. The article also states that there are few directly related companies in the US market, but Vertiv (VRT) and Eaton (ETN) are worth watching. However, all shortages should not be simply equated with having a large TAM (Total Data Acquisition) capacity; there may be opportunities within the supply chain.
Brookfield's five-fold scaling and AI power collaboration triggered a 18% surge in Bloom Energy's stock price, with on-chain long generally initiated at $293.3.
According to Mars Finance, on July 1st, Hyperinsight monitoring showed that Bloom Energy (BE), a leading fuel cell manufacturer, continued its strong performance in "AI power trading," surging 17.88% in a single day. It is currently trading at $325.63 on the Hyperliquid platform, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 280%, completing the narrative shift from "clean energy" to "AI power supply." In terms of news, Bloom Energy and Brookfield expanded their strategic partnership, increasing the financing framework for power projects from $5 billion to $25 billion, a five-fold increase in scale. The overall order book on Hyperliquid is relatively small, with a roughly balanced supply and demand. The total notional short position is approximately $1.1 million, 1.26 times the long position ($900,000). The average price for long positions is approximately $293.37, and for short positions, approximately $295.68. The most recent long liquidation line is at $281.04, about 13.7% below the current price. Currently, there are no whale holding positions worth millions on the blockchain.
Serenity: SIVE has the potential to grow into the next LITE.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Serenity published an article expressing its long-term optimism about Swedish optical company Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), believing it has the potential to become "the next Lumentum (LITE)." In recent months, Sivers has made several key advancements in the AI optical interconnect field, including collaborating with O-Net to advance ELS to mass production, supporting the mass production of Jabil (JBL) 1.6T LRO optical modules, partnering with GlobalFoundries (GFS) to develop continuous wave (CW) lasers for hyperscale cloud vendors, and entering the CPO (co-packaged optics) ecosystem with NVIDIA NVLink, AMD, Amazon, Alchip, and GUC through Ayar Labs. Furthermore, the company is collaborating with Lightium to develop TFLN+CW lasers and is expected to support optical interconnect solutions from Marvell Celestial, Lightelligence, and Lightmatter, while continuing to expand its customer base for undisclosed pluggable optical modules. A recent TrendForce report on cloud vendors like AMD actively securing long-term supply agreements (LTAs) for CW lasers further validates the long-term demand prospects for independent CW laser suppliers. Serenity stated that as AI data center construction continues, various optical interconnect architectures, including 1.6T optical modules, LRO, NPO, and CPO, will develop in parallel over the next few years, providing Sivers with sustained revenue growth opportunities. The company recently completed an oversubscribed institutional financing round, with funds expected to be used to expand laser production capacity and strengthen wafer foundry partnerships. It also plans to complete its Nasdaq listing in the coming quarters to provide financing support for subsequent acquisitions. Currently, the market is overly focused on the commercialization pace of CPO, neglecting the fact that laser products can be widely used in various architectures such as pluggable optical modules, NPO, and CPO. With 1.6T optical modules entering mass production in the second half of 2026, CPO demand accelerating further in 2027, and the Nasdaq listing facilitating the implementation of its acquisition strategy, Sivers is expected to usher in a new round of performance and valuation improvements.
Bank of America raised its capital expenditure forecasts for Alphabet, Meta, and AWS.
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, Bank of America revised its capital expenditure forecasts for Alphabet, Meta, and AWS upwards for 2026 and 2027. Alphabet's 2026 capital expenditure forecast was revised upwards from $187 billion to $195 billion, and its 2027 forecast from $257 billion to $290 billion. Meta's 2026 forecast was revised upwards from $130 billion to $145 billion, and its 2027 forecast from $157 billion to $185 billion. AWS's 2026 forecast remained at $159 billion, while its 2027 forecast was revised upwards from $196 billion to $230 billion.
SanDisk, Seagate, and Western Digital have fallen more than 30% from their all-time highs.
According to BlockBeats data, on July 7th, US stocks opened lower and continued to decline on Tuesday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by more than 6%, and the memory sector continued its downward trend. SanDisk fell by more than 36% from its all-time high two weeks ago, Seagate fell by 31% from its peak, Western Digital fell by 35%, and Micron fell by 28%.
Serenity: XFAB upgraded to "Buy"; AI and photonic chips may unlock long-term growth potential.
BlockBeats reported on July 6th that Serenity reposted Kelper's latest research report, upgrading semiconductor foundry XFAB's rating to "Buy." The report argues that Melexis demand is continuously improving, and the demand for silicon carbide (SiC), gallium nitride (GaN), and photonic chips driven by AI is expected to offset cyclical fluctuations in the automotive industry. Furthermore, the report notes that specialized foundries, scarce in the West, are receiving higher valuation premiums. Data shows that XFAB's current 2027 EV/EBITDA is only 4.8x, significantly lower than the industry median of 14.5x. Serenity stated that this indicates XFAB's core fundamentals are improving, but they are more optimistic about the growth potential of photonic chips, which the market has not yet fully priced in. They pointed out that XFAB leads the EU's PhotonixFAB project, which aims to build a European silicon photonics industry chain and promote the large-scale manufacturing of photonic chips. In the future, XFAB is expected to benefit from the growth in data center optical communication demand driven by AI giants such as Nvidia. However, since related commercial orders have not yet been implemented on a large scale, traditional valuation models still cannot reflect this long-term growth logic.