TD Securities预计美联储维持利率不变后美元将走弱
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Kevin Warsh: 15 years after leaving the financial industry, he still bears the scars of the global financial crisis.
According to an article published on the X platform by Bitcoin News, Odaily Odaily reports that Kevin Warsh stated that although he left the industry 15 years ago, he still suffers from the trauma of the global financial crisis.
UBS: First FOMC meeting under the Warsh era leaned hawkish; rate hike expectations this year may be aggressive.
According to a recent report by Odaily, the first policy meeting since Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh took office released a clearly hawkish signal, but market bets on a rate hike this year may be overly aggressive. UBS expects the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the remainder of the year and recommends investors increase their allocation to high-quality short- and medium-duration bonds to lock in current higher yields.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to comment, reiterating that the 2% inflation target remains unchanged.
On July 1, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the 2026 European Central Bank Forum that the US economy has solid demand and strong supply, and this is before the results of AI become apparent. When pressed on whether he was a hawk, he declined to comment, but reiterated his stance: while inflation expectations and risks have recently subsided, anyone who thinks the central bank will tolerate inflation above 2% will be disappointed—the Fed will definitely deliver on price stability.
Castle Securities predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with the tightening cycle starting as early as September.
According to Mars Finance, on June 17th, Frank Flight, Head of Macro Strategy at Citadel Securities, predicted that the Federal Reserve may begin a new round of interest rate hikes this year, with a total increase of up to 75 basis points, possibly starting as early as September. The report points out that against the backdrop of increasing persistence and spread of inflation, multiple factors are strengthening price pressures, including loose financial conditions, supply chain disruptions, a recovering labor market, and a surge in investment related to artificial intelligence. Even though the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a decline in oil prices, the previous conflicts have already caused a "structural solidification" of inflation expectations. Flight expects that the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, will release hawkish signals in his first policy meeting, potentially reversing market expectations of a September rate cut. He also predicts that September, December, and early 2027 could all be potential windows for rate hikes. Regarding the policy path, Castle Securities believes that the June FOMC meeting may remove any statements indicating an accommodative bias and strengthen tightening signals by updating the dot plot. They anticipate several officials will raise inflation expectations to above 3% while lowering unemployment forecasts. Based on Taylor rule calculations, the firm believes the optimal policy path for the current economic mix is a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike this year, with a policy shift signal potentially appearing as early as July, paving the way for further rate hikes. Furthermore, a recent Duke University survey shows that most former Fed officials believe the Fed needs to raise rates again this year due to the energy shock and persistent high inflation, although some respondents also pointed to a potential economic weakening risk in the summer.
Opinion: Warsh should publicly resist Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve and uphold the central bank's independence.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Levin published an article stating that US President Trump and his allies are continuously pushing to influence Federal Reserve decisions through personnel changes, including attempting to replace Fed Governor Lisa Cook and interfering in the selection of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president, in order to expand the influence of White House supporters on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Levin believes that Kevin Warsh, considered a leading candidate for the next Fed chair, should publicly oppose White House interference, support Jerome Powell and Cook to complete their terms, and demand that the White House withdraw from the selection process for regional Fed presidents; otherwise, his future credibility in leading the Fed and his influence within the committee will be weakened. The Fed's independence is key to maintaining stable inflation expectations and the credibility of monetary policy; continued political interference could damage the stability of the US macroeconomy.
Warsh will make his first appearance at the Global Central Bank Forum today, and the market is focused on his comments on inflation and interest rates.
According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will participate in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank's "Global Central Bank Forum" at 21:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, and will speak alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. This will be Warsh's first public appearance since chairing his first FOMC meeting last month, and the market is trying to glean clues about his policy direction from his remarks. The market is focused on whether Warsh will signal his assessment of inflation, his policy communication style, and whether he will maintain a hawkish stance. However, expectations for clear guidance on the interest rate path are likely to be dashed. Warsh has previously expressed reservations about forward communication tools, believing they offer limited assistance in policy implementation and favoring reduced communication. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that strong forward guidance could lock central banks into a specific future action, limiting policy flexibility. Krishna Guha, head of central bank strategy and economics at Evercore ISI, said the market will be watching how Warsh breaks down the components of inflation, including falling oil prices, changes in inflation expectations, commodity price movements, a stronger dollar, and the cost spillover effects of AI. The US core PCE price index rose to 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023, and investors expect Warsh to reiterate the Fed's commitment to price stability. Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Fed meeting press conference have already impacted the bond market, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising and the 10-year Treasury yield falling from about 4.5% to about 4.3%. The market is currently pricing in an 80% probability of a September rate hike. Guha stated that if Warsh believes it needs to establish policy credibility through rate hikes, taking action once in July and once in September would help complete the adjustment before the midterm elections; however, it is more likely that Warsh is still assessing whether it is necessary to strengthen credibility through rate hikes, and therefore the July meeting may not result in immediate action.