登峰组焦点战，predict.fun“LPL第三赛段AL战胜TES”概率暂报53%
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Predict.funWorld Cup Knockout Stage: Argentina's chance of advancing reaches 85%, Egypt's chance of an upset is only 14%
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, data from the prediction market platform Predict.fun shows that in the Round of 16 match between Argentina and Egypt in the 2026 USA-CMC World Cup, the market gives Argentina an approximately 85% probability of advancing, while Egypt has an approximately 14% probability. Traders generally favor the defending champions, Argentina, to advance to the quarterfinals. It's worth noting that both teams battled for 120 minutes in their previous matches before narrowly advancing. Argentina eliminated Cape Verde in extra time, but their defense and physical condition were tested; Egypt defeated Australia in a penalty shootout, achieving their best-ever World Cup result. This match will also see Messi and Salah face off directly in the World Cup for the first time.
SecondFi has released an update on the latest theft incident: "Isolation Mode" will be launched this week, and a secure wallet export function is planned for release next week.
PANews reported on July 8th that SecondFi, the Cardano wallet service provider, released an update on the latest theft incident, stating that an "isolation mode" will be launched this week, allowing users to check if their wallet address is involved in the incident and submit a support ticket. Next week, they plan to launch a secure wallet export function, providing a safer wallet migration path for users of different skill levels. SecondFi reiterated that it will provide potential asset recovery solutions for wallets confirmed to be affected through its process, expected to be through zero-knowledge proof-based recovery tools with defined eligibility and terms. The official statement also emphasized that they will not request private keys or seed phrase, and users should only operate through the official website support and designated checking tools.
predict.fun Institutional-grade block trading function officially launched
According to official news from Mars Finance, the BNB ecosystem prediction market platform predict.fun has announced the launch of an institutional-grade bulk trading function. This function provides off-chain matching and on-chain settlement services for large-scale transactions on the platform, supporting institutional users in conducting large-scale prediction market transactions. Through a dedicated matching service, buyers and sellers can directly match counterparties to complete large orders in a single peer-to-peer (P2P) transaction, avoiding issues such as slippage, insufficient liquidity, and position exposure in traditional order book trading. It is understood that predict.fun will waive all over-the-counter (OTC) transaction-related fees for the next two weeks.
Nasdaq makes special arrangements for SpaceX: $42 billion in passive funds were invested; the real test will be the unlocking of the shares on August 6.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, fund managers tracking the Nasdaq 100 index will complete a mandatory rebalancing after the market closes on Tuesday, with approximately $4.3 billion passively buying SpaceX (SPCX) shares. Tens of millions of US investors holding Nasdaq funds in 401(k), IRA, or regular accounts will become SpaceX shareholders "passively" without their knowledge. Starting July 7th, SpaceX will officially become a Nasdaq 100 component stock—the fastest company to be added to a major US index in history, with related funds holding approximately 0.5% to 0.7% of the index. Previously, Nasdaq required new stocks to be listed for at least three months and have at least 10% public shareholding before inclusion in the index. However, the new rules that took effect on May 1st significantly lowered the threshold—as long as the market capitalization ranks within the top 40 of existing component stocks, only 15 trading days and 5 days' advance notice are required for "fast inclusion." This rule was implemented exactly six weeks before SpaceX's IPO on June 12th. Critics argue that this window is "too short to complete price discovery," even going so far as to call it "the most shameless manipulation of major indices," benefiting the company, existing shareholders, and the exchange, while passive fund holders are forced to bear the price costs. SpaceX's publicly traded shares account for only 3% to 5%, and with the float multiplier, passive buying far exceeds the actual float's capacity. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains unchanged, maintaining its existing 12-month observation period and four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability requirements. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter and a projected loss of $4.94 billion for the full year of 2025, meaning it may not meet the S&P inclusion criteria until mid-2027 at the earliest. Analysts point out that the real test will come on August 6th—when the company releases its first quarterly earnings report, and approximately 20% of insider shares will be released from lock-up, potentially reversing the supply-demand balance due to the disappearance of passive buying and potential selling pressure.
Predict.funWorld Cup Knockout Stage: USA has a 54% chance of advancing, Belgium receives 47% market support
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, data from the prediction market platform [_2024111120230_] shows that in the Round of 16 match between the United States and Belgium in the 2026 USA-CMC World Cup, the market assigns approximately a 54% probability of the United States advancing and a 47% probability of Belgium advancing. The support for both sides is very close, with traders only slightly favoring the host nation, the United States, to advance to the quarterfinals. It is worth noting that this is one of the most divergent matchups in the Round of 16 of this World Cup. The United States has the home advantage and has demonstrated strong teamwork in this tournament; Belgium, on the other hand, possesses rich experience in major tournaments and many players playing in top European leagues, giving them considerable competitiveness in the knockout stages. Currently, there is no clear consensus in the market, with both sides considered to have a chance of advancing. This match may become one of the most suspenseful contests in the Round of 16.
Cristiano Ronaldo vs. Yamal, predict.fun The probability of "Spain defeating Portugal" is currently reported as 51%.
According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, in the prediction event "World Cup Round of 16 Portugal vs. Spain" (date unspecified), Portugal's probability of winning is currently 24%; the probability of a draw is currently 27%; and Spain's probability of winning is currently 51%. This prediction only refers to the results of matches within the first 90 minutes of regular time (including stoppage time). At 3:00 AM Beijing time tomorrow, Portugal will face Spain in the World Cup Round of 16. Although Portugal boasts several attacking stars such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and Leao, the team did not have an easy time against Croatia in the last round, with several attacks interrupted by offsides in regular time, and their rhythm of the game was also somewhat passive at times. In contrast, Spain's overall performance in this World Cup has been more stable, with a more systematic approach to passing, pressing, and wing play. Against a team like Portugal that relies on the individual abilities of its star players to open up the game, if Spain can maintain control of the midfield and limit the opponent's counter-attacking space, they still have a greater chance of winning the game within 90 minutes. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.