Polymarket 成立独立研究机构，资助预测市场学术研究
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Two traders sue Polymarket over disputed market settlement results.
According to Foresight News , The Block reports that William Wood and Thomas Bush are suing Polymarket over a prediction market that predicted "no" regarding whether Strategy would sell its tokens before May 31. According to the filed complaint, the plaintiff stated that Strategy clearly stated in its 8-K filing that the company sold 32 bitcoins between May 26 and 31, but Polymarket added a rule clause requiring Strategy to publicly confirm this by May 31. The plaintiffs allege that Polymarket altered the market terms after the transaction was resolved, violating the platform's core commitment to rules-based, objective, and fair dealing. They are demanding that Polymarket compensate the plaintiffs for their profits if the market outcome had been "yes," as well as litigation costs.
Busan Bank of South Korea completes pilot program for Korean won stablecoin on Kaia Chain.
According to Foresight News , BNK Busan Bank has completed a pilot project on Kaia Chain for a stablecoin infrastructure based on the Korean won, intended for use in digital local currency scenarios. This proof-of-concept (PoC) involved K-STAR Alliance partners AhnLab Blockchain Company, Lambda256, and Open Asset. Test results showed a 100% transaction success rate and a processing time of less than one second.
Japanese prediction market startups are using a points-based system to circumvent policy bans, offering alternatives to Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to a Bloomberg report, Foresight News reports that Japanese prediction market startups are using a points system to circumvent bans. Miraima, a Japanese prediction platform launched by Gen Z entrepreneurs, allows users to bet on real-world events and earn points that can be redeemed for cash rewards such as gift cards. Since its launch last November, Miraima has amassed nearly 1 million monthly active users, thanks to the recent popularity of sporting events like the World Cup. Its competitor, Poyp, launched a similar app earlier this year, while mobile game developer Gumi Inc. launched a points-based prediction game in June. Polymarket and Kalshi are currently blocking or discouraging users from placing bets on their platforms in Japan and are not conducting any official marketing activities there. According to sources familiar with the matter, Polymarket is optimistic about its long-term prospects and recently appointed a local representative to lead a lobbying effort to secure government approval. Polymarket declined to comment on its operations in Japan but stated that it has noticed the growing interest in its business in Japan and throughout Asia. Kalshi also declined to comment.
Bernstein: Market consolidation is accelerating; Kalshi and Polymarket may become M&A targets.
According to a Foresight News report citing CoinDesk, Bernstein stated in a Monday report that the rapid consolidation of prediction market technology stacks is increasing the likelihood of a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the sports betting and financial markets sectors. The report states that in the past eight months, almost all major consumer-facing prediction market platforms have shifted towards simultaneously controlling both customer distribution channels and exchange infrastructure. The analyst team (led by Ian Moore) wrote that Kalshi and Polymarket possess exchange technology stacks but lag behind in distribution channels, making them potential acquisition targets or acquirers. The report notes a shift in the economic landscape: companies with their own exchanges are retaining revenue that previously flowed to third-party platforms. For example, Robinhood redirected its highest-volume World Cup contracts to its own Rothera instead of Kalshi, and DraftKings migrated its prediction market trading from CME and its existing infrastructure to its own DKeX at the end of June. Currently, Coinbase's annualized prediction market revenue has reached approximately $100 million, Robinhood has traded over 16 billion event contracts this year, and DraftKings disclosed an annualized consumer prediction market trading volume of nearly $3.4 billion. Analysts believe that Robinhood and Coinbase are currently the strongest competitors, possessing both a large consumer base and fully owned, regulated infrastructure. DraftKings narrowed the gap through its acquisition of Railbird. Kalshi and Polymarket, while possessing exchange technology but lacking comparable consumer-end distribution capabilities, remain reasonable acquisition candidates. The report also noted that despite the rapid growth of the forecasting market industry, it still faces regulatory and legal uncertainties—multiple state betting regulators consider sports event contracts to be unlicensed sports betting, while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over such products, and the dispute may ultimately require a court ruling.
CNBC: Polymarket's annualized revenue surpasses $1 billion six weeks after its US exchange launch.
According to a CNBC report by Foresight News , Polymarket exclusively revealed to CNBC that its annualized revenue has well over $1 billion. This news comes six weeks after its US exchange removed its waiting list access restrictions, coinciding with a significant surge in trading volume on its international platform driven by the FIFA World Cup. According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket's daily trading volume on its US platform increased from approximately $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million on June 20th; its weekly trading volume on its international platform, after declining in April and May, has reached an all-time high thanks to the World Cup fever. Polymarket's US exchange launched last December, after being banned from operating in the US in 2022 for failing to register as required. Subsequently, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice dropped their investigations into the company last July without filing charges. Currently, Polymarket's US platform operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange. The platform had been on a waiting list until six weeks ago when it opened to mobile users; a desktop version is still unavailable. US users must download the app by scanning a QR code on the website to trade.
Polymarket is now available on Telegram, powered by TON Prediction.
According to Foresight News , The Open Platform, Telegram's ecosystem development platform, announced that Polymarket has launched on Telegram, powered by TON Prediction. Omniston seamlessly coordinates settlements behind the scenes as a cross-chain execution layer, eliminating the need for users to handle cross-chain transactions or additional wallets.