Tom Lee：市场预期FOMC今日维持利率不变
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Tom Lee: The Ethereum Foundation is addressing key issues such as financial infrastructure, which are of concern to governments, policymakers, and markets.
According to Odaily Odaily, Tom Lee posted on the X platform that he was pleased to see the Ethereum Foundation carefully addressing key issues concerning the role of governments and policy markets in financial infrastructure, economics, and the crucial role of neutral blockchains like Ethereum.
Tom Lee: End-of-quarter "window dressing" drags down short-term crypto prices, but the industry's long-term outlook remains positive.
Odaily Odaily reports that Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, an Ethereum treasury company, shared his views on the recent weakness in the crypto market. He stated that as the second quarter draws to a close, institutions are generally engaging in "window dressing" by reducing their holdings of assets that performed poorly during the quarter, putting short-term downward pressure on cryptocurrency prices. Ethereum fell by approximately 8% last week. Tom Lee also pointed out that the industry fundamentals continue to improve, with the official establishment of Ethlabs and the Bank of England's more lenient regulatory stance on stablecoins. He remains optimistic about the crypto sector in the long term, with two core growth drivers unchanged: firstly, Wall Street financial capital continues to invest in crypto infrastructure; and secondly, AI-powered payment systems are gradually being implemented on blockchain. Bitmine will adhere to its long-term strategy, focusing on these two exponential growth drivers, and maintains its goal of holding 5% of the total circulating supply of Ethereum by 2026. (PRNewswire)
Machi Big Brother: We need more Tom Lee
Odaily Odaily reports that Huang Licheng, Machi Big Brother," posted on the X platform: "We need more Tom Lees. I only have 8% left before I'm liquidated." It is reported that Machi Big Brother has sold one BAYC and used the proceeds to add margin and increase his position. He currently holds 1,052.9204 ETH with a 25x leveraged long position in Ethereum, with a liquidation price of $1,538.
Tom Lee: The market has almost priced in two Fed rate hikes this year, and rising US Treasury yields are suppressing market sentiment.
According to Mars Finance, on June 25th, Tom Lee stated that the market is still digesting Kevin Warsh's remarks following his first press conference last week and is repricing the macroeconomic environment. Oil prices have fallen over the past week, and the war premium is shrinking. Current oil prices are not far from pre-conflict levels of around $65, indicating that the market believes the associated war risk is decreasing. However, on the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury yield is still rising, currently at around 4.5%, higher than the pre-war level of around 4.2%. The main headwind facing the market recently has shifted from oil prices to yields. Tom Lee pointed out that the market is not only focusing on the 10-year US Treasury yield but is also beginning to price in the possibility of a Fed rate hike. According to federal funds futures, the market is currently pricing in almost two rate hikes this year. Bank of America further projected today that the Fed will raise rates three times this year, in September, October, and December. Jeffrey Gundlach frequently emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the 2-year US Treasury yield, as it typically leads the Fed and hints at the Fed's policy direction. Between 2023 and 2025, the relationship between the 2-year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate indicated that the Federal Reserve's policy was overly tight and required rate cuts. However, this relationship has recently reversed, meaning the Fed would need two rate hikes to catch up with the 2-year Treasury yield. The analyst believes that, at least for now, yields have become a market headwind.
Tom Lee: Investors overreacted to the Fed meeting; the meeting was actually quite dovish.
According to Mars Finance, on June 20th, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, Ethereum's largest financial institution, stated in an interview with CNBC that investors overreacted to the Federal Reserve meeting. He noted that the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, has a different communication style and plans to monitor data in a more modern way. The market interpreted the removal of forward guidance and changes to the dot plot as a hawkish shift, but Lee believes it was more of a statement from Warsh indicating a commitment to using modern and real-time alternative data to understand inflation, without a clear definitive judgment at present. Lee stated that this is actually a market-friendly view, and investors need to understand that if the data changes, the dot plot will also change quickly. Therefore, he believes the meeting was generally quite dovish. Regarding the future trend of the S&P 500, Fundstrat still believes that market conditions will suddenly change later this year, and it will feel very much like a bear market. However, he also stated that he doesn't want to directly predict a market top at this time, as the current stock market environment remains favorable. He mentioned that the SpaceX IPO was very successful, and related companies continue to receive positive news. Tom Lee believes the real challenges may emerge later this year due to factors including the Federal Reserve's policy framework overhaul, SpaceX's relatively small number of currently outstanding shares that will be unlocked in phases this year, and the potential liquidity diversion caused by the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs. Furthermore, disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger supply chain shortages. A fourth catalyst could be the depletion of speculative funds, but this condition is not yet present as investors have become overly bullish.
Tom Lee: The rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate indicates that investors expect improved visibility of crypto use cases.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, the largest Ethereum treasury, wrote that although there is still widespread skepticism about ETH in the market, the rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate shows that investors are expecting improved visibility of cryptocurrency "use cases," which is a good thing for the market.