决议之后看PCE：FOMC内部或已掌握通胀情况
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Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Middle East situation and core PCE data to dominate; Micron to release earnings report after market close on Wednesday.
Mars Finance reports that on June 20th, market focus will continue to revolve around Middle East geopolitics and US PCE data next week. Below are the key points the market will be paying attention to this week (all times are Beijing time): Thursday 04:00, the Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual bank stress tests; Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20th, US May core PCE price index year-on-year, US May personal spending month-on-month, final reading of US Q1 annualized real GDP quarter-on-quarter, preliminary reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter, final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter, final reading of US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-on-month, US May durable goods orders month-on-month; Friday 03:40, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks; Friday 06:30, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsby speaks; Friday At 23:30, Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will speak. The core PCE price index, which the Fed currently values most closely, will be released next Thursday, along with May's personal income and spending data. According to the Cleveland Fed's inflation forecasting model, the core PCE is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3% in May, while the overall PCE is expected to rise slightly from 3.8% to 4.0%. Micron Technology (MU), a memory chip manufacturer, will release its quarterly earnings report after the US stock market closes on Wednesday, June 24th, which will be a key indicator of chip demand, as the market will observe whether demand is still accelerating. The company is guiding revenue of $33.5 billion and a gross margin of approximately 81%.
This week's macroeconomic data may dominate the cryptocurrency market, with PCE, unemployment claims, and housing market data being key indicators to watch for a potential Fed rate cut.
According to BlockBeats, on May 25th, the crypto market will focus on US macroeconomic data this week, including PCE inflation, initial jobless claims, home prices, and new home sales, to determine whether the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates. Currently, both the forecasting market and CME FedWatch indicate a high probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged in June. The market will also continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East and oil price volatility. If energy prices continue to rise, it could exacerbate inflationary pressures and depress the performance of risk assets. In addition, this week will see several DAO governance votes and token unlocking events, including token unlocks for projects such as EIGEN, HUMA, and GRASS.
Core PCE inflation rate may be revised down by 0.2 percentage points; the US BEA will adjust some of its PCE calculation methods.
According to Odaily Odaily, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced adjustments to some calculation methods in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. These changes are expected to be reflected in the data revision released on September 30, 2026. Market estimates generally indicate that this adjustment will lower the core PCE inflation rate by approximately 0.2 percentage points. Current data shows that core PCE inflation was 3.4% over the past 12 months ending in May 2026, consistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target since March 2021. The BEA's adjustments primarily target three sub-sectors: portfolio management and investment advisory services, computer software and accessories, and legal services. Former Federal Reserve Governor Miran stated in a speech last December that "what should have been recorded as an increase in the quantity of service consumption was instead recorded as a price increase." Miran, along with Federal Reserve economists Alessandro Barbarino and Anthony M. Diercks, published a paper in May analyzing the shortcomings of existing statistical methods, including measurement issues related to portable storage devices and video games. JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart stated that "Grand Theft Auto 6 might also have the opportunity to influence the U.S. Treasury yield curve."
Bitunix Analyst: PCE Brings No Surprises, Real Variables Remain the Federal Reserve and the Dollar
According to Mars Finance, on June 26th, the US May PCE data met market expectations, with overall PCE increasing by 4.1% year-on-year and core PCE increasing by 3.4%. While the data did not further push up inflation expectations, it also did not provide any reason to support interest rate cuts. Market focus quickly shifted from the data itself to the Fed's policy framework, especially after Waller continued to downplay forward guidance. Funds continued to focus on the possibility of "high interest rates remaining for longer," rather than waiting for a policy shift. Recent statements from Fed officials further reinforced this expectation. Williams admitted that inflation returning to 2% might be delayed until 2028, and Goolsby also believed that core inflation remained high and supported avoiding providing a clear interest rate path. Meanwhile, the dollar continued its strength, all major US banks passed stress tests, and the AI industry continued to attract capital inflows, all of which made global funds more inclined to remain in dollar assets rather than betting on an easing cycle in advance. On the other hand, Middle East risks have not been completely eliminated. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has again taken a hard line on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on merchant ships and disputes over strait management indicate that the ceasefire agreement is still subject to change. While crude oil exports and shipping have not yet been substantially impacted, the market has begun to reassess the uncertainties in the energy supply chain and their potential impact on future inflation. For the crypto market, the real focus now is not on individual inflation data, but on whether dollar liquidity continues to be absorbed by the high-interest-rate environment. As the market gradually accepts that the Federal Reserve will not rush to ease policy in the short term, the pace of valuation recovery for risk assets may still be limited. In the short term, Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate around risk appetite, the strength of the dollar, and changes in overall liquidity. The market still needs to pay attention to the impact of changes in macroeconomic policy expectations on crypto asset market sentiment.
Analysts: Coinbase premium index has been negative for 40 consecutive days, and PCE data exacerbates risk aversion.
PANews reported on June 26 that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Coinbase premium index has been in negative territory for 40 consecutive days since May 15, reflecting persistent and recently intensified selling pressure from professional and institutional investors. Coinbase Advanced serves professional and institutional clients, while Binance is the primary platform for retail traders; the continued downward pressure on prices by institutions fully reflects the current bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the US May PCE rose 4.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 4.0%, and core PCE rose 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.3%, both the highest since April 2023; GDP growth of 2.1% far exceeded expectations, putting the Federal Reserve in a more difficult policy position.
Economists: US core PCE will not fall easily.
Odaily Odaily reports that after the PCE rose 4.1% year-on-year in May, some economists predicted this could be the peak of price increases. However, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas stated that the core inflation rate increase of 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase of 3.4%, may be sustainable. Given the significant transmission pressure within the PPI index over the past few months, these prices, unlike the overall data, will not fall back so easily. (Jinshi)