摩根大通：《Clarity法案》今年通过的可能性降低，对加密市场前景构成压力
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The founder of Strategy claims the BTC drop stems from AI-driven fund rotation rather than a problem with Bitcoin itself, while JPMorgan warns the window for legislation on the Clarity Act is closing.
According to ChainCatcher and BBX data, Bitcoin fell to a new low for the year at $61,300 yesterday, putting pressure on crypto-related stocks. Key signals emerged from institutional and legislative perspectives, with the following key developments: Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MSTR), publicly stated on June 4th that Bitcoin's current decline is not due to a deterioration in BTC's fundamentals, but rather a "phased rotation" of capital from Bitcoin to AI stocks, the SpaceX IPO, and other emerging assets—"Bitcoin is not broken, it's just not the main player in the momentum trade for now." Saylor also reiterated his continued buying stance. Previously, Strategy spent approximately $2.01 billion (average price $80,985) to purchase 24,869 BTC in the week of May 11-17. As of the latest disclosure, its total holdings are 843,738 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $63.87 billion (average price $75,700). Currently, BTC has fallen below the cost line of $12,300, and all of the company's holdings are in a state of unrealized loss, but management has not disclosed any intention to reduce its holdings. According to a CoinDesk report on June 4th, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: $JPM) warned in its latest research report that the legislative window for a full Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is "rapidly narrowing." The wording disagreements over stablecoin yield provisions have become the most critical unresolved obstacle to the bill—the banking industry insists on maintaining restrictions on "passive income," while the crypto industry insists on securing "activity incentive space." If a compromise cannot be reached this month, the Senate's deadline of 60 votes by July 4th will be completely invalidated. The report also points out that the siphon effect of funds from the SpaceX IPO and AI stocks has further suppressed institutional willingness to allocate to BTC in the short term.
Senator Lummis criticizes JPMorgan CEO Dimon for misinterpreting the Clarity Act.
PANews reported on June 3rd that, according to The Block, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, in an interview with CNBC, called JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's remarks about Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong "offensive," stating that Dimon either hadn't read the Clarity Act or was intentionally misleading the public. Dimon had previously stated during discussions of this crypto market structure bill that it allows crypto companies to pay interest on deposits and stablecoins without adequate protection and doesn't adequately cover anti-money laundering and Bank Secrecy Act requirements, indicating that the banking industry would oppose the bill. Lummis emphasized that AML and BSA obligations also apply to digital assets and are enshrined in the bill.
JPMorgan: Strategy needs to rebuild its dollar reserves to alleviate concerns about selling dollars; the Clarity Act has less than a 50% chance of passing this year.
According to Mars Finance, as reported by The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated in a recent report that while Strategy's sale of 32 bitcoins caused market volatility, this was merely a symbolic move; the real problem lies in the lack of new investor demand. The report points out that Strategy's current dollar reserves are only sufficient to pay approximately 6.3 months of preferred stock dividends, recommending that it rebuild its dollar reserves to restore investor confidence. JPMorgan also lowered its forecast, believing the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing this year is now below 50%, and has shifted to a cautious stance on digital assets as a whole. Nevertheless, analysts still expect Strategy to continue buying bitcoin, believing that the current market weakness could be a bullish contrarian signal in the future.
Analysis: The Clarity bill faces both time and lobbying pressures to pass the Senate.
PANews reported on June 1st that, according to Crypto in America, the US Senate will have a packed agenda before its recess on July 4th, including priorities such as funding for the Department of Homeland Security, additional funding for the Pentagon, and the renewal of FISA Section 702. The fate of the Clarity digital asset market structure bill remains uncertain. The bill still needs to reconcile the differences between the versions of the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, and gain consensus among some Democratic senators on ethical guidelines, DeFi enforcement tools, and legal protections for developers, in order to surpass the 60-vote threshold. Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and US banking lobbying groups are launching a new campaign against the current compromise on stablecoin yields; Custodia Bank is preparing to file a motion with the Supreme Court regarding the Federal Reserve's denial of its master account.
JPMorgan CEO warns: Stablecoins may "crash," probability of Clarity Act passing this year decreases.
According to Foresight News , citing Forbes, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the Clarity Act allows crypto companies to offer deposit-like returns on products such as stablecoins, but lacks corresponding protections, and that such arrangements "may eventually collapse," adding that he himself will not participate in them. The report points out that the banking industry and crypto companies continue to disagree on whether stablecoin accounts can offer interest-like rewards, and the probability of the Clarity Act being passed this year has fallen from nearly 70% to slightly above 50%.
JPMorgan Chase: Strategy's Bitcoin Selling Strategy May Exacerbate Market Volatility Risk
PANews reported on July 2nd that, according to CoinDesk, Wall Street bank JPMorgan Chase stated in a recent report that MicroStrategy's (referred to as Strategy in the text) selective sale of BTC for preferred stock dividends introduces "two-way" liquidity risk, increasing uncertainty in the crypto market. The report points out that Strategy currently has approximately $2.55 billion in cash reserves, enough to cover approximately 17 months of preferred stock dividends and interest. However, analysts believe that Strategy should increase this coverage to 24-36 months by issuing new common stock to reduce the possibility of future forced sales. Strategy currently holds approximately 847,000 BTC, representing about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, and has accumulated approximately $13.7 billion in purchases this year, accounting for about 70% of the market's net inflows.