CME FedWatch显示美联储9月加息25个基点概率升至61.4%
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Kalshi CEO: When it comes to competitors, the first thing that comes to mind isn't Polymarket, but platforms like CME and Robinhood.
According to Odaily Odaily, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour stated in an interview with FOX: "To be honest, when I think about competitors, I don't think about Polymarket the most, but rather other platforms. We are surrounded by a group of competitors." In subsequent interviews, Tarek primarily mentioned CME and Robinhood. CME assisted gambling giant FanDuel in launching its own prediction market product, while Robinhood has launched its own prediction market, Rothera. Tarek also mentioned DraftKings, Novig, and Coinbase.
Kevin Warsh: 15 years after leaving the financial industry, he still bears the scars of the global financial crisis.
According to an article published on the X platform by Bitcoin News, Odaily Odaily reports that Kevin Warsh stated that although he left the industry 15 years ago, he still suffers from the trauma of the global financial crisis.
Bernstein: Market consolidation is accelerating; Kalshi and Polymarket may become M&A targets.
According to a Foresight News report citing CoinDesk, Bernstein stated in a Monday report that the rapid consolidation of prediction market technology stacks is increasing the likelihood of a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the sports betting and financial markets sectors. The report states that in the past eight months, almost all major consumer-facing prediction market platforms have shifted towards simultaneously controlling both customer distribution channels and exchange infrastructure. The analyst team (led by Ian Moore) wrote that Kalshi and Polymarket possess exchange technology stacks but lag behind in distribution channels, making them potential acquisition targets or acquirers. The report notes a shift in the economic landscape: companies with their own exchanges are retaining revenue that previously flowed to third-party platforms. For example, Robinhood redirected its highest-volume World Cup contracts to its own Rothera instead of Kalshi, and DraftKings migrated its prediction market trading from CME and its existing infrastructure to its own DKeX at the end of June. Currently, Coinbase's annualized prediction market revenue has reached approximately $100 million, Robinhood has traded over 16 billion event contracts this year, and DraftKings disclosed an annualized consumer prediction market trading volume of nearly $3.4 billion. Analysts believe that Robinhood and Coinbase are currently the strongest competitors, possessing both a large consumer base and fully owned, regulated infrastructure. DraftKings narrowed the gap through its acquisition of Railbird. Kalshi and Polymarket, while possessing exchange technology but lacking comparable consumer-end distribution capabilities, remain reasonable acquisition candidates. The report also noted that despite the rapid growth of the forecasting market industry, it still faces regulatory and legal uncertainties—multiple state betting regulators consider sports event contracts to be unlicensed sports betting, while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over such products, and the dispute may ultimately require a court ruling.
Zuckerberg: Asks Meta to explore partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi
According to Odaily Odaily, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged his team to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta is developing a similar prediction market application called Arena. Executives say Arena is currently in internal testing and may not be released in the future. The app will rely on a points system similar to video games, rather than accepting real-money bets. Meta aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users to the app and plans to eventually integrate some of Arena's features into Facebook and Messenger. (Reuters)
Multiple organizations have jointly sued Kentucky for its 14.25% forecasting market tax, with Kalshi and Polymarket involved.
Odaily Odaily reports that an industry coalition including Kalshi and Polymarket has filed a lawsuit seeking to block Kentucky's 14.25% transaction tax on prediction markets. This tax, passed by the Kentucky legislature in April, imposes a 14.25% sales tax on transaction fees charged to prediction market operators and is considered the first state-level tax specifically targeting this industry in the United States. The plaintiff, the Fair Markets Coalition, argues that the tax is discriminatory, unconstitutional, and may already be covered by federal law. The lawsuit points out that imposing a higher tax burden on prediction markets is clearly unfair and could distort the competitive structure of the market. (Abcnews)
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to comment, reiterating that the 2% inflation target remains unchanged.
On July 1, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the 2026 European Central Bank Forum that the US economy has solid demand and strong supply, and this is before the results of AI become apparent. When pressed on whether he was a hawk, he declined to comment, but reiterated his stance: while inflation expectations and risks have recently subsided, anyone who thinks the central bank will tolerate inflation above 2% will be disappointed—the Fed will definitely deliver on price stability.