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CPI数据前,交易员押注9月加息概率50%,国债市场定价偏向数据温和

火星财经消息,8 月 12 日,根据掉期市场交易情况,交易员目前计入的加息 25 个基点概率约为 50%。在 7 月非农就业意外转弱以后,华尔街对 9 月美联储是否加息 25bp 几乎形成 50∶50 的极端分裂定价,而沃什领导下的美联储又明显减少前瞻指引,使市场不得不重新依赖硬数据决定政策路径。 7 月 CPI 的影响具有明显的非对称性——即温和通胀数据可以进一步削弱加息理由,但超预期偏热的数据更容易迅速把 9 月加息重新变成基准情景。对于「全球资产定价之锚」10 年期美债收益率而言,当前债券市场风险收益实际上已经明显向「7 月份的温和 CPI 驱动收益率快速下行」的定价方向倾斜,主要因为宏观数据与 CTA 债市仓位结构正在产生积极共振。(智通财经)
Disclaimer: The views above are the author's only and do not represent 711BTC. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.

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07-08 20:33

Report: TradeFi contract trading volume accounted for 11% of total contract trading volume in the first five months of 2026.

According to a recent stablecoin industry report released by Binance Research on July 8th, in the first five months of 2026, TradeFi-related perpetual contracts accounted for approximately 11% of the total perpetual contract trading volume, with a cumulative trading value exceeding $1.1 trillion. Binance's trading value exceeded $500 billion, representing a market share of approximately 47%.

07-08 20:31

The Bank of Korea has released a regulatory proposal suggesting that personal stablecoin transactions exceeding $10,000 should be limited to transfers from verified wallets.

According to Mars Finance, the legal team of the Bank of Korea has published a research paper titled "Regulatory Scheme for Foreign Remittance Transactions Targeting Stablecoins," proposing regulatory recommendations for large-scale stablecoin transactions. The paper, referencing current South Korean foreign exchange control regulations, proposes constraints on stablecoin transfers exceeding $10,000 between individuals, requiring such transactions to be conducted only between officially certified wallets, along with a pre-reporting mechanism. The institution acknowledges that there are technical obstacles to fully controlling unregistered wallets, but due to anti-money laundering compliance requirements, it is necessary to strengthen restrictions on large-scale cross-border stablecoin fund flows. South Korean regulators have previously repeatedly stated the need to improve the monitoring system for cross-border crypto asset transactions using non-custodial wallets; this paper further refines and implements the regulatory approach.

07-08 20:22

Gate responded to online rumors of user asset theft: An urgent investigation is underway, and preliminary assessments indicate it is an isolated incident.

According to Foresight News , Gate responded to online reports of user assets being stolen, stating that the incident shows the customer made a withdrawal between 3:00 PM and 4:00 PM on July 7th, and reported the loss to online customer service at 5:00 PM on July 8th. Gate has initiated an investigation, and the incident is currently under urgent investigation. Preliminary assessments indicate it is an isolated case, there are no system security vulnerabilities, and the website is operating normally. Preliminary investigations suggest this incident may be related to a leak of user information; the specific details are under investigation. Gate will disclose further details as soon as the investigation concludes.

07-08 20:19

Justin Sun has staked $430 million in Ethereum on Lido, yielding an annualized return of approximately $9.5 million.

According to Odaily Lens monitoring, Justin Sun Sun has been continuously staking ETH through Lido Finance. 23 hours ago, Justin Sun staked another 13,000 ETH, worth approximately $23.08 million, bringing his total staked ETH on Lido to 247,436 stETH, currently valued at approximately $430.2 million. Data shows that since February 2023, this staking position has generated a total of 11,307 stETH staking profits, worth approximately $26.82 million. Based on the current profit level, Justin Sun position has an annualized return of approximately $9.5 million.

07-08 20:17

Guangdong: By the end of 2027, the province's urban digital infrastructure support capabilities will be significantly enhanced.

According to Mars Finance, 11 departments, including the Guangdong Provincial Government Service and Data Management Bureau, recently issued the "Guangdong Provincial Action Plan for Promoting the Digital Transformation of Cities and Building Smart Cities." The plan emphasizes using cities as comprehensive carriers for the construction of Digital Guangdong, promoting infrastructure connectivity, data integration, platform interoperability, business integration, and a smooth ecosystem. It also aims to actively explore future-oriented smart city management models and achieve high-quality development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area smart city cluster. By the end of 2027, the province's urban digital infrastructure support capabilities will be significantly enhanced, the level of efficient digital governance will be greatly improved, digital public services will be more efficient and convenient, the momentum of digital economic development will be fully released, and the digital ecosystem will be comprehensively and collaboratively guaranteed. A number of effective and replicable typical application scenarios for digital transformation will be implemented, with Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, and Dongguan taking the lead in building efficient smart governance systems and implementing a number of advanced, usable, and independently controllable large-scale urban models. By 2030, no fewer than 10 cities will have achieved full-area digital transformation, achieving an overall leap in the digital transformation of cities throughout the province, forming a number of new smart city benchmarks and digital China city models with regional competitiveness and national influence. (Cailian Press)

07-08 20:10

Morgan Stanley reiterated its "overweight" rating on RKLB and raised its bullish price target to $293.

Odaily Odaily that Morgan Stanley reiterated its "Overweight" rating on Rocket Lab (RKLB) and maintained its target price of $105, but raised its most bullish target price from $185 to $293. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the acquisition of Iridium will expand Rocket Lab's potential market space and reposition the company as a vertically integrated space platform. While SpaceX has significant scale and cost advantages over Rocket Lab, the latter is moving closer to the former's model.