美国7月CPI年率符合预期
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South Korea's inflation rate may exceed 3% for the second consecutive month, with the June CPI expected to rise 3.2% year-on-year.
According to a survey by Odaily Odaily, South Korea's overall inflation rate is likely to exceed 3% for the second consecutive month, higher than the Bank of Korea's 2% target. The median forecast from seven economists indicates that the benchmark Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 3.2% year-on-year in June, up from 3.1% in May; month-on-month, it is likely to rise 0.1%, compared to 0.5% in the previous month. DBS Group economist Ma Tieying said that the cumulative increase in raw material costs and the weakening of the Korean won continue to affect the South Korean economy, and he expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates once in July and again in the fourth quarter.
Institutions: Short-term US Treasury bonds are typically less sensitive to CPI data than employment data.
According to a report by Odaily Odaily, Afonso Borges, an analyst at Julius Baer Group, noted that the modest rebound led by short-term Treasury bonds after Wednesday's release of the US May CPI report was "normal," as better-than-expected inflation data should reduce the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. The fixed-income analyst stated, "The market reaction this time was significantly more moderate compared to the sharp fluctuations triggered by last Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report." He pointed out that the average fluctuation of the two-year Treasury yield on the days following the release of the past 12 inflation reports was only 3 basis points. This fluctuation was "very mild, less than half the average fluctuation on the days following the jobs report." (Jinshi)
Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos: CPI rose 8.2% on a three-month annualized basis.
According to an analysis by Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "Federal Reserve Odaily," it is noteworthy that the overall CPI rose 0.47% month-on-month (an annualized increase of 5.8%), pushing the unadjusted CPI annual rate to 4.2%, a three-year high. On a three-month annualized basis, the CPI increase reached 8.2%.
The US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month in May, below the expected 0.50% and the previous reading of 0.60%.
According to Odaily Odaily, the US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month in May, below the expected 0.50% and the previous reading of 0.60%. (Jinshi)
US May CPI may hit a more than three-year high, as consumer confidence and purchasing power continue to be eroded.
According to Odaily Odaily, economists expect a key inflation indicator to be released on Wednesday, showing that U.S. consumer prices rose at their highest level in more than three years in May. Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi stated that unlike the inflation triggered by supply disruptions during the COVID-19 crisis, this recent surge in prices is primarily attributed to government policies, including the war with Iran. He said, "It's been almost five years since inflation last reached the Fed's target, and I think that's gradually eroding collective psychology, which is one of the reasons people feel so bad about the economy." According to a recent CBS News poll, three-quarters of Americans say their income isn't keeping up with inflation. Economists say that May's CPI data suggests rising energy prices may be a major cause of persistent inflation. Zandi stated that in addition to energy costs, economists will also focus on the costs of goods and services on Wednesday to assess how higher fuel prices will impact the economy. He said, "It's not just gasoline prices that are rising, diesel prices are rising too, which is driving up the price of all goods transported by truck, from groceries to Amazon parcels. Flying is also more expensive now because airlines have passed on the higher aviation fuel costs to passengers." (Jinshi)
US CPI Outlook: Inflation Roots Far Exceed Oil, Sticky Influence Likely to Difficult to Dissipate Quickly
According to Odaily Odaily, the market expects the US overall CPI annual rate to rise to 4.2% in May (previous value 2.4%), while the monthly rate will fall to 0.5%. This would be the first time the CPI has exceeded 4% since May 2023, and the highest reading since April 2023. The overall inflation increase is mainly attributed to the increased energy costs driven by the war in Iran. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also expected to rise to 2.9% annually, with the monthly rate falling to 0.3%. There are growing concerns that inflation is spreading: rising oil prices are transmitting to all sectors of the economy, and inflation may not dissipate anytime soon. Charles Schwab's chief strategist, Sanders, said, "This is not just an oil issue, it also involves the money supply, and it is increasingly related to AI. The inflation issue is broader than just energy, meaning that inflation may remain sticky." She pointed out that investor anxiety stems mainly from inflation, and if the data worsens beyond expectations, the stock market will come under pressure. The Trump administration believes that inflation will fall after the Middle East conflict subsides. But Sanders believes the supply chain has been severely disrupted, stating, "Even if the war ends quickly, oil prices will struggle to return to previous lows; it's not something that can be restarted with a single click." (Jinshi)