经历史上最盈利周期，比特币OG交易者未实现盈利接近2021年高点三倍
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CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's next parabolic rally may require over $1 trillion in new funding.
According to data from CryptoQuant, as reported by Mars Finance, the capital efficiency of each Bitcoin bull market is decreasing significantly. In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove a gain of about 55,000%; in 2015, approximately $69 billion corresponded to nearly 10,000%; in 2018, approximately $365 billion corresponded to about 2,000%; and in this current cycle, since 2022, approximately $697 billion has generated only a 689% return. In 2011, approximately $5 million in new funds could double the price of Bitcoin, while in this cycle, approximately $101 billion is needed. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that this means Bitcoin needs to become a core macro asset rather than just a retail-driven ETF, and the next parabolic rally would need to absorb over $1 trillion in new funds, far exceeding current institutional adoption levels. However, this argument faces real-world challenges: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen record outflows over the past month, Bitcoin ended the first half of the year with losses, and retail funds are withdrawing rather than institutional funds accelerating their inflow.
CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin is poised for another parabolic surge, but deeper institutional allocation is needed.
PANews reported on July 1st that CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju published an article on the X platform stating that Bitcoin is likely poised for another parabolic surge. While capital efficiency is declining—in 2011, a mere $2.7 billion net capital inflow fueled a 55,436% increase, while the current cycle's $697 billion yielded only a 689% return—he believes the next parabolic bull market requires deeper institutional allocation, with Bitcoin becoming a core macro asset rather than a retail-driven ETF. Ki Young Ju stated that this shift is still in its early stages and has not yet been disproven. If Bitcoin can absorb over $1 trillion in realized market capitalization, another parabolic surge is still possible. Currently, gold's market capitalization is approximately $27 trillion.
CryptoQuant founder: The biggest risk to Bitcoin is not a crash, but rather "boring market conditions" that erode confidence.
According to Mars Finance, on June 19th, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on social media that the biggest risk facing Bitcoin is not a sharp price drop, but rather the "boring market" resulting from prolonged sideways movement. He believes that in this environment, even without a dramatic pullback, the market narrative and investor confidence may gradually weaken, thereby affecting demand and institutional premium structures. He further stated that the real pressure on capital operation models, represented by the STRC structure associated with Michael Saylor, does not come from short-term declines, but from prolonged stagnation. Without a compelling uptrend story, MicroStrategy's (MSTR) market premium may be compressed, making continuous fundraising and coin-buying strategies more challenging. He emphasized that the core driving force of each Bitcoin cycle has always been the updating of the narrative around the "uptrend logic," rather than simply price performance. He recalled that over the past decade, Bitcoin has achieved key narratives such as ETF approval, institutional entry, and becoming a "strategic reserve asset," but the original "free currency" and "cypherpunk vision" are being diluted. He believes that while the long-term trend of capital inflows remains valid, Bitcoin currently lacks a new narrative center that can unify market beliefs, which could become a key variable in the next phase of market movements.
CryptoQuant CEO: Considering building dashboards and APIs around stocks, commodities, and other RWAs.
According to Odaily Odaily, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that as crypto capital increasingly flows into stocks, commodities, and other RWAs, CryptoQuant is considering building dashboards and APIs around these assets to provide data-driven insights.
Today, US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 4,026 BTC, and Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 11,955 ETH.
According to Lookonchain Odaily, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 4,026 BTC today, compared to a net outflow of 1,661 BTC over the past 7 days; the Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 11,955 ETH, compared to a net inflow of 20,570 ETH over the past 7 days.
The Bank of Korea warns that single-leverage ETFs for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics may amplify stock market risks.
According to Odaily Odaily, the Bank of Korea submitted a written document to the National Assembly disclosing that the rapid expansion of leveraged ETFs based on single stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may be amplifying the structural "grouping" and volatility risks in the South Korean stock market. The combined market capitalization and trading volume of the two companies have increased significantly, with their market capitalization share rising from approximately 36.1% at the end of last year to over 55% recently, and their trading volume share jumping from 27.9% to 63.5%. South Korean financial regulators have also expressed similar concerns, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring of the potential impact of related products on market stability and systemic risks. They noted that leveraged ETFs with a single underlying asset may exacerbate one-way capital flows under changing market sentiment, and if the market reverses, coupled with intraday rebalancing and derivatives hedging mechanisms, this could further amplify price volatility. (Etoday)