分析师：BTC矿工手续费收入占比降至0.71%，算力较峰值下降23%
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Analysts: US Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of 135,000 BTC since October last year.
PANews reported on June 29th that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of approximately 135,000 BTC since their peak in October 2025, with total holdings decreasing from 745,890 BTC to 610,280 BTC, a drop of approximately 18%. The 30-day moving average net inflow has fallen to approximately -102,000 BTC, the lowest level since the ETF product's inception. In terms of weekly inflows, the past four weeks have all seen net outflows, totaling approximately 64,000 BTC, with the latest week showing -29,500 BTC. The report points out that ETF demand has shifted from a cyclical driver to a source of market pressure, with a structural lack of institutional buying hindering upward market momentum. Improvement signals require the 30-day moving average net inflow to return above zero and at least one week of net inflows.
Analysis: MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, and its BTC holding cost is now higher than the spot price.
PANews reported on June 25th that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Strategy's preferred stock, MSTR, has fallen 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin has fallen 51%. Strategy's 847,363 BTC holdings have an average cost of $75,651 and a total cost of $64.1 billion. The current BTC price has fallen below this cost line for the first time since the 2022 bear market. MSTR's additional decline relative to BTC has reached approximately 28 percentage points, approaching the upper limit of its historical range, but has not yet reached the extreme 89% retracement of the 2022 bottom. Meanwhile, Strategy's buying strategy has clearly shifted to a defensive stance: weekly BTC purchases have been reduced by about two-thirds, and less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised through the stock offering has been used to purchase BTC, with the remainder going into dollar reserves.
CryptoQuant: Surge in BTC and Altcoin exchange deposits may indicate increased market volatility.
According to CryptoQuant, as reported by Odaily Odaily, the inflow of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoin into exchanges has increased significantly recently, a pattern that historically often foreshadows a period of higher volatility in the crypto market. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that the inflow of nearly 49,000 BTC into exchanges on June 30th is a rare and extreme level. There have only been four similar single-day deposit peaks approaching 50,000 BTC this year, and these peaks are typically followed by significantly amplified price volatility and clear directional price movements. The report argues that at the current inflow level, the market is absorbing a significant amount of Bitcoin that has been transferred to exchanges. Since transfers to exchanges typically imply potential selling pressure, position adjustments, or increased demand for derivatives margin, this could trigger more volatile price movements. CryptoQuant also points out that the inflow of Ethereum and Altcoin into exchanges is also increasing, indicating that the pressure is not limited to Bitcoin but is spreading to the broader crypto asset market. Overall, the surge in exchange deposits may indicate a more significant shift in market direction in the short term.
Data: Long-term BTC holdings reached a record high of 16 million coins, while MVRV is near a three-year low.
According to a report by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the MVRV ratio for long-term Bitcoin holders has compressed to 1.24, the lowest level in nearly three years. The cost basis for long-term holders has risen to $48,400, while the BTC price has fallen to $59,000. The average long-term holder's profit is now only 24%, and the gap with the cost basis has narrowed to 19%. Meanwhile, long-term holder holdings have reached a record high of nearly 16.1 million BTC, and selling indicators remain low, indicating that holders are not selling during price declines but are instead absorbing supply. The analyst points out that historically, MVRV approaching 1 usually indicates a bottom, but it has not yet entered the green capitulation zone. Stronger bottoming signals require MVRV to enter the "very low zone" and the price to remain above the cost basis. The main downside risk is a price drop below the $48,400 cost basis with a simultaneous surge in selling activity, which could trigger capitulation by even the most steadfast holders.
Analysts: BTC is evolving from a reserve asset into a core source of liquidity supporting Strategy's capital structure.
According to Odaily Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that while Bitcoin remains a core reserve asset, in practical terms, BTC has functionally transformed into a crucial source of liquidity supporting Strategy ($MSTR)'s complex capital structure. Axel Adler points out that as Strategy continues to finance and manage capital through Bitcoin-related assets, Bitcoin's role is evolving from a simple store of value to a key liquidity infrastructure in the company's capital operation system.
Analysis: The market's "premium pricing" of the Strategy business model has disappeared, and BTC has entered a phase of structural pressure.
PANews reported on June 28th that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated in his weekly analysis that FUD sentiment surrounding Strategy remains persistent. The company's mNAV (market capitalization-to-book ratio) has fallen below 1, meaning the market's "premium pricing" of Strategy's business model has disappeared. In other words, the market is no longer willing to pay a price higher than the value of its Bitcoin reserves. While this doesn't necessarily mean the company faces immediate risk, it significantly increases the difficulty of raising funds through common stock offerings and continuing to accumulate Bitcoin. The core issue now is whether Strategy can still fulfill its dividend obligations and continue to secure new funding without selling Bitcoin.