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大摩:机器人集群将形成「分布式推理云」,为SpaceX提供混合算力架构

BlockBeats 消息,8 月 14 日,摩根士丹利分析师 Adam Jonas 在最新研报中提出一个被市场忽视的判断:到 2040 年,机器人集群的分布式算力可能比任何数据中心都更快帮助 SpaceX 触达 1 太瓦算力目标。大摩估算 2040 年各类形态机器人总量将达约 22 亿台,按每台搭载 500 瓦算力计算,合计约 1.1 太瓦,理论上可全部通过 Starlink 联网。 马斯克此前透露为 Optimus 设计的特斯拉 AI5 芯片功耗为 250 瓦,大摩认为这一数字将随时间上升。这就是大摩所说的「分布式推理云」——固定与移动边缘节点组成网络,连接大规模数据中心集群,形成混合算力架构。大摩指出,特斯拉投资者对「分布式推理云」并不陌生,马斯克曾多次讨论利用闲置车辆和部署在超级充电站的 Megapods 构建大规模分布式算力网络,随着 SpaceX 与特斯拉协作深化,SpaceX 投资者也需要开始熟悉这一算力部署逻辑。 除算力叙事外,大摩还跟踪了 SpaceX 的 AI 模型进展——Grok 4.6 已在 Artificial Analysis 智能指数上达到 61 分,接近当前最高的 63 分,且成本与 Kimi K3 相当。马斯克表示 Grok 4.7 将在 3 至 4 周内就绪,Grok 5 预计年底发布。在算力定价上,预测 2026 年四季度加权平均算力价格约为 31 美元/瓦,但压力测试显示若该价格贯穿 2027 年将带来约 420 亿美元增量收入,营收增幅接近 3 倍。 大摩同时强调,星舰第 14 次飞行是 SpaceX IPO 以来最重要的股价催化剂之一,若首次实现飞船塔架捕获,将代表航天飞行史上最重要的里程碑之一,并为太空、连接和 AI 业务打开新增长空间。大摩给出的 SpaceX 目标价为 300 美元,认为 SpaceX 证明其能维持 AI 模型前沿地位并转化为真实使用量,是实现大幅估值重估的关键。
Disclaimer: The views above are the author's only and do not represent 711BTC. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.

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