Morgan Stanley’s BlackRock Bitcoin ETF holdings rise 23% in Q2
Related
JPMorgan boosts Bitcoin, Ether ETF positions in Q2 filing
JPMorgan reported a 25% increase in its Bitcoin ETF position and more than quadrupled its Ether ETF position in the second quarter.
Data: BlackRock ETF addresses have recorded net outflows of Bitcoin for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.24 billion.
According to ChainCatcher, Lookonchain monitoring shows that BlackRock ETF addresses have recorded net outflows of Bitcoin for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling 35,980 BTC (approximately $2.24 billion).
Wall Street has given SpaceX an "initially bullish" rating, with Morgan Stanley predicting the stock price could rise by as much as 87%.
According to a report by ChainCatcher on July 7th, SpaceX has gained initial support from Wall Street, with global brokerages beginning to rate the rocket and AI company led by Elon Musk and reaching a clear consensus: buy the stock. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have begun rating the stock with a buy rating, endorsing SpaceX's long-term growth narrative, despite lingering questions surrounding the company's profitability, execution, and valuation. Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $300, one of the highest on Wall Street, implying an 87% upside from Monday's closing price of $160.42. Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX's share price to be $75 in a bear market scenario and $600 in a bull market scenario, with revenue potentially reaching $319 billion by 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040.
Analysis: Amidst record outflows from ETFs, whale snapped up 270,000 BTC, signaling a structural divergence in Bitcoin's future.
PANews reported on July 5th, citing CoinDesk, that amidst a continued outflow of institutional funds from the US, Bitcoin whale have accumulated over 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion) in the past two weeks, a stark contrast to the record outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysis indicates this divergence exhibits historical cyclical characteristics: while institutional funds withdraw, long-term holders and whale accounts continue to accumulate, resembling a fund redistribution structure commonly seen at the bottom of previous cycles. On-chain data shows that although the spot premium remains negative, indicating weak buying pressure, large wallets continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, suggesting the market is currently in a structural phase of "institutional deleveraging and long-term fund accumulation."
Analysis: Demand in the US market remains weak, making it difficult for Bitcoin's July rally to continue.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin's July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched indicators, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. This indicator measures the price difference of BTC on the US trading platforms Coinbase and Binance. The continued underperformance of BTC on Coinbase compared to Binance indicates relatively weak demand in the US market. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, whereas historically, Bitcoin bull runs have typically been accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a 30-year high, pushing up borrowing costs in the US, UK, and Germany. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, it could pose resistance to BTC. Bitfinex analysts stated that structural institutional buying remains unverified until BlackRock's IBIT resumes its sustained inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated that if the spot Bitcoin ETF continues its trend following last Friday's return to inflows, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The agency added that if BTC clearly reclaims $64,000 this week, it will further boost market sentiment and alleviate market concerns about Strategy (MSTR), a publicly traded Bitcoin holding company.
Wintermute: Bitcoin's rise is more in line with the characteristics of a "relief rally" than the start of a new bull market.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that the latest US non-farm payroll data significantly missed market expectations, coupled with Warsh's speech being interpreted as dovish, driving a general rebound in global risk assets, with the crypto market performing the best. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recently. Bitcoin's current rally has a more solid foundation, mainly driven by continued whale buying, options fund flows towards call options, and improved on-chain data. The end of net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs also boosted market sentiment. The cooling US job market has further reduced market expectations for interest rate hikes this year, while Warsh reiterated the 2% inflation target at the Sintra Forum but did not release more hawkish signals, which investors interpreted as a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In the crypto market, on-chain data shows that whale wallets have accumulated over 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average, while options market funds have shifted from hedging positions to call options with strike prices of $60,000 to $70,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum's rise is largely driven by institutional narratives, including the official launch of Ethereum Institutional and the continued progress of institutional tokenization infrastructure. However, the Ethereum Foundation's recent layoffs of approximately 20% and budget cuts of about 40%, along with previous outflows from ETH ETFs, still reflect some pressure on its fundamentals. This round of gains is more characteristic of a "relief rebound" than the start of a new long-term bull market. Improved macroeconomic environment, easing tensions in the Middle East, continued institutional investment in Ethereum, and low liquidity during the summer have all contributed to the market recovery. However, from a funding perspective, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $2.73 billion this year. Until ETF fund flows continue to improve and form a trend, the market should still view the current situation as a sentiment correction rather than a structural reversal, and remain cautious about the future.