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分析:比特币短期恐慌情绪减弱,6万至7万美元成关键博弈区间

火星财经消息,8 月 14 日,Glassnode 发文表示,比特币原生期权市场整体仍较为低迷,隐含波动率与偏度继续收窄,但持仓正逐渐集中于关键执行价附近,使期权市场的结构更加清晰。数据显示,比特币短端隐含波动率持续下降,1 周期平值隐含波动率已降至约 26%,而 6 个月期仍维持在约 39%,期限结构进一步变陡,显示交易者对短期价格波动预期较低,但仍保留对更长期不确定性的定价。市场对下行保护的需求减弱,期权仓位整体不再像此前那样偏防御。 Gamma 敞口方面,负 Gamma 主要集中在 60,000 美元低位区间,而正 Gamma 则逐步集中至约 70,000 美元附近。这意味着 BTC 向下波动时可能更容易出现较大幅度价格变动,而向上接近 70,000 美元时,则可能受到做市商对冲带来的稳定作用。 当前期权市场防御性有所下降,但尚未进入过度自满状态。隐含波动率与偏度下行反映短期恐慌减弱,而 Gamma 与执行价持仓的集中则显示,60,000 至 70,000 美元仍是下一轮方向选择的关键区间。
Disclaimer: The views above are the author's only and do not represent 711BTC. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.

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08-13 17:37

Bitcoin speculators keep BTC price ‘pinned’ below $68.7K: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s weakness near range highs stems from short-term holders trying to break even on underwater BTC investments, Glassnode says.

07-05 11:44

Glassnode: Large BTC long and short positions are both at a loss, increasing market vulnerability in both directions.

According to Foresight News , an article published by on-chain analytics platform Glassnode states that the Entry Price Heatmap reflects the specific price levels at which traders establish positions. Current data shows that large long positions established between $72,000 and $76,000, and short positions established at $60,000, are both currently showing losses. These unrealized losses make the market highly vulnerable regardless of which direction it moves.

07-03 18:20Important

Glassnode: Long-term holders are starting to accumulate Bitcoin again, but the market may still need to undergo one last round of consolidation.

According to Mars Finance, Glassnode's latest weekly report on July 3rd stated that despite Bitcoin falling below $60,000, continued outflows from spot ETFs, and increased risk aversion in the options market, on-chain data shows that long-term holders (LTH) have re-entered a buying phase, with multiple wallet addresses simultaneously shifting towards accumulation, indicating that patient funds are gradually absorbing market selling pressure. Currently, approximately 10.83 million Bitcoins are in a loss-making state, higher than the approximately 9.22 million Bitcoins in a profitable state, reflecting that the market is still under significant pressure, and holdings are gradually shifting towards investors with high conviction. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience net outflows, indicating that institutional risk appetite has not yet recovered; Coinbase's order book shows a significant increase in buying, showing that institutions are gradually providing liquidity and rebuilding market support. In the derivatives market, Hyperliquid leveraged traders continue to increase long positions, which could drive a rapid rise if the market rebounds, but a break below key support could trigger a new round of long liquidation. The Deribit options gamma structure is beginning to stabilize the market, helping to reduce volatility, while demand for put options remains high, indicating that investors are still generally defensive. Bitcoin is gradually transitioning from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase, and the foundation for a long-term recovery is forming. However, before the trend truly reverses, the market may still experience one last round of shakeouts triggered by macroeconomic factors or leverage liquidation.

07-02 14:20Important

Glassnode: Bitcoin long-term holders have returned to the accumulation phase.

PANews reported on July 2nd that, according to CoinDesk, Glassnode data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders have shifted from net allocation to net accumulation, with the 30-day net holding change turning positive. The current net accumulation is estimated at between 50,000 and 100,000 BTC. Glassnode points out that this sustained shift from net allocation to net accumulation by long-term holders typically occurs during periods of market weakness, as long-term investors gradually increase their holdings while short-term participants reduce risk. In terms of accumulation trend scores, the smallest holders (less than 1 BTC) score close to 0.8 to 0.9, medium-sized holders (100 to 1,000 BTC) are also close to this range, the 1 to 10 BTC and 10 to 100 BTC groups score around 0.6 to 0.7, the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC group scores around 0.5 to 0.6, and the largest whale(over 10,000 BTC) remain close to neutral.

07-08 17:57

SpaceX's marked address transferred a small amount of BTC for the first time in six months, suspected to be a test transfer.

According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, Arkham monitoring revealed that an address tagged as SpaceX transferred Bitcoin for the first time in six months. Data shows that SpaceX address 15atF initiated a test BTC transaction of approximately $88 to SpaceX address bc1q9, which appears to be a test transfer.

07-08 16:44

Strive CRO: Strategy's sale of 3,500 Bitcoins helps buy more BTC.

Odaily Odaily News | _2024111120230_ | An article published on the X platform states that Strive's CRO, PunterJeff Walton (@PunterJeff), explained that Strategy's recent sale of 3,500 Bitcoins is actually positive and will help it buy more BTC. He stated that this will provide more support for STRC and its future growth potential, enabling it to buy more BTC, and MSTR shareholders should take a positive view of this.