美联储古尔斯比：美国GDP和劳动力市场基本稳定
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QCP Market: CPI and Oracle earnings reports loom, market faces multiple risks.
PANews , June 10th - According to QCP Market, global markets remain under pressure, with escalating tensions between the US and Iran, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and rising inflation concerns all contributing to a decline in cross-asset risk appetite. Last week's stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll data weakened market confidence in cooling inflation, making tonight's US CPI data the most critical macroeconomic risk event. QCP points out that the market expects US CPI year-on-year growth to exceed 4.2%. If the data is higher than expected, it could further reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and put pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, Oracle Corporation will release its earnings report today. Following Broadcom Inc.'s stock price plunge due to weaker-than-expected AI business guidance, the market's tolerance for error in AI concept stocks has clearly decreased.
QCP Market: BTC holds above $60,000, market awaits CPI and Strategy developments.
PANews reported on June 8th that, according to QCP Market analysis, the South Korean KOSPI plunged 8.4% intraday, dragged down by a sell-off in AI concept stocks. This, coupled with cooling expectations of a Fed rate cut, USD/JPY returning to 160, and tensions in the Middle East, put pressure on risk assets. BTC, after a roughly 15% correction last week, has stabilized above $60,000, with the options market remaining defensive. The market is focused on this week's US CPI data and changes in Strategy's capital structure and BTC holdings; their subsequent actions will remain key variables influencing crypto market sentiment.
The US national debt has surpassed $39 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 123%.
PANews reported on May 20th that the latest data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that the total federal government debt has exceeded $39 trillion, increasing by more than $1 trillion since October 23, 2025, at an average daily increase of about $5 billion. Currently, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 123%, far exceeding traditionally safe levels. To reduce the annual deficit to 3% of GDP, the U.S. needs to cut approximately $10 trillion in the deficit over the next decade. Debt interest payments are already roughly equivalent to the combined spending on education and the military. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and others warned that if investors begin demanding higher yields, the "bond market" could force Washington to tighten fiscal policy. Fiscal responsibility organizations stated that persistently high debt levels increase the risk of a fiscal crisis and called for swift deficit reduction.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment was supported by a decline in inflation expectations, with the market focusing on the July CPI data.
According to Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market continued its stabilizing trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This surge was primarily driven by declining inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has recently declined significantly, with the two-year indicator falling below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, and long-term inflation expectations also weakening. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, dropping to levels similar to those before the geopolitical conflict in February, prompting the market to reassess inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory. Some analysts believe that a weaker dollar index (DXY) will further reduce resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as the two typically have a negative correlation. However, others caution that service sector inflation remains sticky, and declining oil prices do not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall inflation trend; monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher and longer" stance. The next key market juncture is the US June CPI data on July 14th, which could be a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets.
AI capital spending by the five major tech giants is surging and is projected to reach 3.2% of US GDP in 2027, surpassing defense spending for the first time.
According to forecasts released by The Kobeissi Letter, the investment boom in AI is reshaping the US economy. It is projected that by 2027, the capital expenditures of the five major tech giants—Alphabet (Google's parent company), Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle—on AI will climb to approximately 3.2% of US GDP. If this forecast materializes, it will be the first time in US history that annual AI capital expenditures have exceeded national defense spending (estimated at approximately 2.7% of GDP next year). Data shows that this year (2026), these five companies' AI capital expenditures are expected to exceed $800 billion, with the percentage of GDP rising sharply from 1.5% in 2025 to around 2.5%, approaching the estimated 2.7% of defense spending. By 2027, this figure is projected to surge further, reaching a record $1.1 trillion.
The protagonist of ByteDance's stock trading success story: CPI, non-farm payroll data, etc., are not just market noise; he previously suffered a significant drawdown in his Nvidia investment due to ignoring the interest rate hike environment.
According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, Leto Bao, the protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million yuan" story, reviewed his journey to a 30 million yuan fortune in the US stock market on Binance Square. He stated that CPI, non-farm payrolls, and Federal Reserve policies are all macroeconomic factors, while earnings season reflects the performance of specific companies or industries, and also reflects changes in the macroeconomy. Leto Bao stated that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is one of the key indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve. A high CPI usually indicates greater inflationary pressure; a low CPI may reflect deflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve's long-term goal is to maintain inflation at around 2%, which represents a moderate inflationary environment, meaning a slow depreciation of the currency, while investment, consumption, and credit activities are relatively healthy. Non-farm payroll data also influences market judgment. There is a certain correlation between overheated employment and inflation, but the relationship between macroeconomic indicators is complex and not a simple linear deduction. The Federal Reserve is responsible for formulating economic policies related to interest rates and serving the US economy through policy adjustments. Leto Bao believes that CPI, non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve policies, and earnings season should not be simply dismissed as "noise," but all have some reference value. He mentioned that when he previously invested in Nvidia, he ignored the broader interest rate environment, leading to a significant drawdown in his account. Therefore, macroeconomic factors still need to be incorporated into investment decisions. Leto Bao is a former employee of ByteDance, known as the "ByteDance Stock Investor." He reportedly made substantial profits (around 30 million RMB) by investing in the AI storage sector in the US stock market and subsequently resigned. The story began when he noticed an abnormal price increase when buying hard drives on Pinduoduo, which prompted him to research data storage needs and heavily invest in related stocks.