美联储古尔斯比：CPI数据令人鼓舞，支持7月份维持利率不变的决策
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The protagonist of ByteDance's stock trading success story: CPI, non-farm payroll data, etc., are not just market noise; he previously suffered a significant drawdown in his Nvidia investment due to ignoring the interest rate hike environment.
According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, Leto Bao, the protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million yuan" story, reviewed his journey to a 30 million yuan fortune in the US stock market on Binance Square. He stated that CPI, non-farm payrolls, and Federal Reserve policies are all macroeconomic factors, while earnings season reflects the performance of specific companies or industries, and also reflects changes in the macroeconomy. Leto Bao stated that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is one of the key indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve. A high CPI usually indicates greater inflationary pressure; a low CPI may reflect deflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve's long-term goal is to maintain inflation at around 2%, which represents a moderate inflationary environment, meaning a slow depreciation of the currency, while investment, consumption, and credit activities are relatively healthy. Non-farm payroll data also influences market judgment. There is a certain correlation between overheated employment and inflation, but the relationship between macroeconomic indicators is complex and not a simple linear deduction. The Federal Reserve is responsible for formulating economic policies related to interest rates and serving the US economy through policy adjustments. Leto Bao believes that CPI, non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve policies, and earnings season should not be simply dismissed as "noise," but all have some reference value. He mentioned that when he previously invested in Nvidia, he ignored the broader interest rate environment, leading to a significant drawdown in his account. Therefore, macroeconomic factors still need to be incorporated into investment decisions. Leto Bao is a former employee of ByteDance, known as the "ByteDance Stock Investor." He reportedly made substantial profits (around 30 million RMB) by investing in the AI storage sector in the US stock market and subsequently resigned. The story began when he noticed an abnormal price increase when buying hard drives on Pinduoduo, which prompted him to research data storage needs and heavily invest in related stocks.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment was supported by a decline in inflation expectations, with the market focusing on the July CPI data.
According to Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market continued its stabilizing trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This surge was primarily driven by declining inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has recently declined significantly, with the two-year indicator falling below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, and long-term inflation expectations also weakening. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, dropping to levels similar to those before the geopolitical conflict in February, prompting the market to reassess inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory. Some analysts believe that a weaker dollar index (DXY) will further reduce resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as the two typically have a negative correlation. However, others caution that service sector inflation remains sticky, and declining oil prices do not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall inflation trend; monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher and longer" stance. The next key market juncture is the US June CPI data on July 14th, which could be a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets.
South Korea's inflation rate may exceed 3% for the second consecutive month, with the June CPI expected to rise 3.2% year-on-year.
According to a survey by Odaily Odaily, South Korea's overall inflation rate is likely to exceed 3% for the second consecutive month, higher than the Bank of Korea's 2% target. The median forecast from seven economists indicates that the benchmark Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 3.2% year-on-year in June, up from 3.1% in May; month-on-month, it is likely to rise 0.1%, compared to 0.5% in the previous month. DBS Group economist Ma Tieying said that the cumulative increase in raw material costs and the weakening of the Korean won continue to affect the South Korean economy, and he expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates once in July and again in the fourth quarter.
HTX DeepThink: May CPI hit a more than two-year high, but core inflation's decline provides a buffer for the crypto market.
According to Mars Finance, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that after the release of the US May CPI data, the crypto market entered a complex phase in the short term characterized by "increasing macroeconomic pressure, but tightening expectations not completely out of control." The overall CPI rose 4.2% year-on-year, the largest increase since April 2023, and rose 0.5% month-on-month, indicating that the energy shock continues to push up inflation. Against the backdrop of blocked tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and strained global energy supply chains, energy prices have become the core driver of this round of inflation rebound. Energy inflation rose 3.9% month-on-month and a high 23.5% year-on-year in May, with gasoline prices rising 7% month-on-month. The market is unlikely to escape the trading logic of "geopolitical conflict—rising oil prices—inflation rebound—hawkish Fed" in the short term. However, for the crypto market, the data isn't entirely negative. Core CPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.3% and significantly lower than the previous value of 0.4%, indicating that the energy shock has not yet largely transmitted to the prices of core services and goods. This is the main reason why the market has lowered its bets on interest rate hikes. Short-term interest rate futures show that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at next week's meeting is highly unlikely, with only about a 13% probability of a rate hike in July. Major assets such as BTC and ETH have not experienced a sharp sell-off in the short term; on the contrary, they may have received some support due to lower-than-expected core inflation. The current core contradiction lies in the fact that while liquidity expectations have not completely deteriorated, risk appetite remains suppressed by energy inflation and policy uncertainty. If oil prices stabilize in the coming weeks, the market may re-trade the logic of "inflation peaking and a decreased probability of interest rate hikes," and BTC has a chance to maintain high-level fluctuations or even experience a corrective rebound. If the Strait of Hormuz issue continues to worsen and oil prices rise further, the market will reprice the possibility of a more hawkish Fed, and highly leveraged Altcoin and new coins with high FDV will face greater selling pressure. It is worth noting that gold and silver rose after the CPI was released, indicating that the market is still allocating to safe-haven assets rather than fully returning to risk assets. The crypto market is more likely to exhibit a structural market trend: BTC is relatively resilient, ETH fluctuates with macro liquidity, Altcoin continue to diverge, and funds will prioritize assets with real income, strong trading volume, or those related to AI and Perp DEX. Overall, the CPI data did not directly end the cryptocurrency market's rebound, but it was also insufficient to trigger a full-blown bull market. The market's short-term focus will shift to tomorrow's PPI data and Warsh's first Fed meeting a week later. If the Fed's rhetoric shifts from dovish to neutral or even tight, the cryptocurrency market may face renewed pressure; if core inflation continues to improve and oil prices stabilize, a weak recovery is still possible after this correction. Until energy prices and the Fed's statements provide clearer direction, a neutral to cautious stance will likely remain the dominant market theme. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer or recommendation for any investment product.
Institutions: Short-term US Treasury bonds are typically less sensitive to CPI data than employment data.
According to a report by Odaily Odaily, Afonso Borges, an analyst at Julius Baer Group, noted that the modest rebound led by short-term Treasury bonds after Wednesday's release of the US May CPI report was "normal," as better-than-expected inflation data should reduce the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. The fixed-income analyst stated, "The market reaction this time was significantly more moderate compared to the sharp fluctuations triggered by last Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report." He pointed out that the average fluctuation of the two-year Treasury yield on the days following the release of the past 12 inflation reports was only 3 basis points. This fluctuation was "very mild, less than half the average fluctuation on the days following the jobs report." (Jinshi)
Bitunix analysts: Energy inflation pushed CPI to a three-year high, but cooling core data prompted the market to pause its bets on interest rate hikes.
According to Mars Finance, on June 11th, the US May CPI rose to 4.2% year-on-year, a near three-year high. Energy prices increased by 23.5% year-on-year, with gasoline prices surging by 40.5%, contributing over 60% of the inflation increase in a single month. This data once again proves that the Middle East situation and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz have become the main sources of current global inflationary pressures, and energy prices are gradually affecting economic activity through transportation and business costs. However, the market is more focused on another set of data. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by only 0.2% month-on-month, lower than market expectations, indicating that the energy shock has not yet fully spread to the service and consumption sectors. Housing, healthcare, and entertainment prices maintained a moderate increase, but prices for auto insurance, new cars, and household goods declined, reflecting that domestic demand has not experienced runaway inflation. This has led the market to reassess its policy path. Although the overall CPI continues to climb, the cooling of core inflation makes it unnecessary for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates immediately in the short term. The market is currently more focused on whether next week's meeting will shift to a neutral-to-hawkish stance, rather than directly raising interest rates. For financial markets, this report reveals an important signal: the current risk has shifted from overheated demand to supply shocks. If energy prices continue to remain high due to geopolitical influences, the world will face pressure of "high inflation but slowing economic momentum"; conversely, if energy supply returns to normal, core inflation still has a chance to return to a downward trajectory. For the crypto market, the key short-term issue for Bitcoin is no longer just whether the Fed will raise interest rates, but whether global liquidity can continue to expand. If energy inflation further pushes up real funding costs, risk asset valuations will be suppressed; however, if core inflation remains under control, market concerns about liquidity are expected to ease.