特朗普拟出席白宫创新会议，Coinbase、Ripple等加密公司CEO将参会
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Bernstein: Market consolidation is accelerating; Kalshi and Polymarket may become M&A targets.
According to a Foresight News report citing CoinDesk, Bernstein stated in a Monday report that the rapid consolidation of prediction market technology stacks is increasing the likelihood of a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the sports betting and financial markets sectors. The report states that in the past eight months, almost all major consumer-facing prediction market platforms have shifted towards simultaneously controlling both customer distribution channels and exchange infrastructure. The analyst team (led by Ian Moore) wrote that Kalshi and Polymarket possess exchange technology stacks but lag behind in distribution channels, making them potential acquisition targets or acquirers. The report notes a shift in the economic landscape: companies with their own exchanges are retaining revenue that previously flowed to third-party platforms. For example, Robinhood redirected its highest-volume World Cup contracts to its own Rothera instead of Kalshi, and DraftKings migrated its prediction market trading from CME and its existing infrastructure to its own DKeX at the end of June. Currently, Coinbase's annualized prediction market revenue has reached approximately $100 million, Robinhood has traded over 16 billion event contracts this year, and DraftKings disclosed an annualized consumer prediction market trading volume of nearly $3.4 billion. Analysts believe that Robinhood and Coinbase are currently the strongest competitors, possessing both a large consumer base and fully owned, regulated infrastructure. DraftKings narrowed the gap through its acquisition of Railbird. Kalshi and Polymarket, while possessing exchange technology but lacking comparable consumer-end distribution capabilities, remain reasonable acquisition candidates. The report also noted that despite the rapid growth of the forecasting market industry, it still faces regulatory and legal uncertainties—multiple state betting regulators consider sports event contracts to be unlicensed sports betting, while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over such products, and the dispute may ultimately require a court ruling.
Zuckerberg: Asks Meta to explore partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi
According to Odaily Odaily, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged his team to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta is developing a similar prediction market application called Arena. Executives say Arena is currently in internal testing and may not be released in the future. The app will rely on a points system similar to video games, rather than accepting real-money bets. Meta aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users to the app and plans to eventually integrate some of Arena's features into Facebook and Messenger. (Reuters)
The CFTC has launched a full investigation into Polymarket, including allegations of wash trading that have impacted the Robinhood event contract ecosystem; Nasdaq has for the first time distributed TotalView market data on-chain via Pyth Network.
According to Mars Finance and BBX data, the prediction market faced a double whammy yesterday, with traditional exchange infrastructure accelerating its on-chain transformation. Key developments include: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $HOOD)'s prediction market/event contract ecosystem suffered a double regulatory blow yesterday: First, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched a full investigation into Polymarket (privately held), covering its social media activities and suspected manipulation; second, a Michigan court ruled to prohibit Kalshi (privately held) from offering sports betting services to Michigan residents. While these two events directly target Polymarket and Kalshi, their strategic importance to Robinhood cannot be ignored—Robinhood, through its subsidiary Robinhood Derivatives LLC, offers event contract products linked to KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC, making it the largest prediction market distribution channel among regulated brokers in the U.S. The CFTC's escalating investigations and enforcement actions against similar platforms will directly impact Robinhood's compliance architecture and product expansion speed; the sector's average daily trading volume in June reached a record high. Nasdaq, Inc. (NASDAQ: $NDAQ) announced yesterday that it has selected Pyth Network (an on-chain price oracle protocol) as its on-chain distribution partner for TotalView (Nasdaq's full market depth data product). This marks the first time Nasdaq has integrated its core institutional-grade market data onto a blockchain network—TotalView provides full-level buy and sell quotes and transaction data for the entire US stock market, historically only available to traditional financial institutions (paid subscriptions). On-chain distribution means that DeFi protocols, decentralized exchanges, and smart contracts can, for the first time, access Nasdaq-level real-time equity market data as an on-chain pricing basis. The Pyth Network token (PYTH) subsequently rose by over 6%, which the market interpreted as a historic convergence of traditional securities market infrastructure and decentralized finance.
Ripple's CEO criticized Saylor's Bitcoin fundraising strategy, calling the STRC discount a "serious negative signal."
According to Odaily Odaily, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse criticized Strategy and its chairman Michael Saylor's Bitcoin purchase financing model in an interview with CNBC on Friday, saying that "financial engineering cannot create long-term value" and that the long-term value of digital assets should ultimately be driven by practical utility. Garlinghouse stated that Saylor's team was not on the right track and believes this approach has harmed the overall crypto market. He also emphasized that he remains bullish on Bitcoin but opposes Strategy's strategy of continuously increasing its BTC holdings through complex financing structures. The criticism focuses on Strategy's model of financing its Bitcoin purchases through the issuance of preferred stock. STRC is one of Strategy's preferred shares, with an annualized dividend obligation of 11.5%. Recently, STRC traded at a discount of approximately 25% to 26% to its $100 par value, a performance Garlinghouse described as a "serious negative assessment" of Strategy's strategy.
Coinbase CLO: Former U.S. Deputy Attorney General submits "masterpiece" supporting documentation in Kalshi lawsuit
Odaily Odaily reports that Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that Prelogar, former U.S. Deputy Attorney General representing the Coalition for Prediction Markets, has submitted an amicus brief in support of Kalshi to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, calling it a "masterpiece." Paul Grewal points out that the document not only outlines the historical context of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets but also presents three key arguments: 1. Prediction markets can uniquely aggregate market information and transform it into simple price signals, which are then aggregated by market participants. 2. Prediction market users trade based on prices that market participants are willing to accept. They cannot control contract prices and bear a legal obligation to provide users with fair access to the contract. 3. The laws of various states in the United States are not suitable for regulating prediction markets because their core objectives are not to maintain a fair market, price discovery, information aggregation, risk hedging, or prevent market manipulation.
Video | Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev: AI-powered agent trading will empower ordinary investors with institutional-level trading capabilities
On July 2nd, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated in an interview with CNBC that AI-powered trading will be a completely new category. For the past few decades, automated trading, high-frequency trading, and complex AI-driven strategies have been almost entirely controlled by institutional investors and Wall Street, making them difficult for ordinary people to access. In the future, AI agents may be able to help ordinary people participate in the market, just like professional traders, further lowering the barriers to financial investment.