Paul Tudor Jones' Firm Buys Back Into BlackRock Bitcoin ETF After a Year of Selling
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Bernstein: Maintains year-end target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin; current pullback is still weaker than historical cycles.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, despite a roughly 54% drop in Bitcoin's price from its October 2025 high of nearly $125,000, Bernstein maintained its year-end target price of $150,000. Bernstein believes that the current pullback is significantly less than the 75% to 90% declines commonly seen at the end of historical cycles, indicating a shift in market structure. In the current context of low market sentiment, Wall Street's clear target prices provide a price anchor, while historical retracement frameworks help traders assess risk. If this cycle follows historical trends, the market may still decline further, but institutional assessments of the subsequent recovery are still worth noting. The firm points out that the previous high of nearly $125,000 in October 2025 remains a significant resistance level; based on a historical 75% retracement, the corresponding price is approximately $31,000, which can be considered a key failure zone. Going forward, we will focus on whether the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and spot demand will rebound, as these are important signals for judging whether the market has entered a recovery phase.
10x Research: Bitcoin mining stocks pull back 20%, influenced by AI and semiconductor narratives.
According to a report by 10x Research, Bitcoin mining stocks have largely decoupled from Bitcoin price movements and have experienced a pullback of approximately 20%. The report states that Bitcoin mining companies are now deeply intertwined with the AI theme, which currently revolves more around global supply chains and competition than crypto adoption or financial digitization. Furthermore, the performance of Chinese LLM concept stocks and the prospects of the South Korean semiconductor supply chain are directly influencing the performance of Bitcoin mining stocks. Data shows that Riot's stock price movement has become increasingly synchronized with the Semiconductor SOX ETF since April 2026, with both recently declining from their highs, indicating that the performance of Bitcoin mining stocks is being influenced by sentiment in the semiconductor and AI computing power chains.
Data: Bitcoin's rebound has begun, but further confirmation is needed to break through $66,000.
According to ChainCatcher, BIT stated in its latest weekly market watch that Bitcoin recovered most of its June losses last week, regaining its 200-week moving average and entering the key confirmation range of $63,000 to $66,000. Ethereum saw even stronger weekly gains, indicating broader market participation in this rebound.
ABTC, a Bitcoin mining company backed by the Trump family, increased its holdings by 500 BTC.
Odaily Odaily reports that American Bitcoin (ABTC), a Bitcoin mining company backed by the Trump family, has increased its holdings by 500 BTC, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 8,000. (BTCtreasuries)
Data: BlackRock ETF addresses have recorded net outflows of Bitcoin for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.24 billion.
According to ChainCatcher, Lookonchain monitoring shows that BlackRock ETF addresses have recorded net outflows of Bitcoin for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling 35,980 BTC (approximately $2.24 billion).
Analysis: The Bitcoin net UTXO supply ratio triggered a buy signal for the first time since November 2022, but bottom confirmation still needs to be awaited.
PANews reported on July 3rd that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that the Bitcoin Net UTXO Supply Ratio has entered buy territory for the first time since November 2022, triggering buy signals in several trading days from late June to early July. Historically, such signals typically appear near cycle lows, thus possessing some reference value. However, confirming a bottom requires observing whether the ratio can stabilize in a positive value while the price rises in tandem; a return to negative territory could be a false signal. Meanwhile, the loss ratio indicator shows that the fast moving average broke through 50% at the end of June, meaning that more than half of Bitcoin is in a loss-making state; however, the slow moving average remains around 40%. If the loss ratio maintains its current level, it will take approximately 7 to 8 weeks for the slow moving average to reach the 50% threshold.